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Red Deer – Lacombe MP Blaine Calkins not impressed by first federal budget in 2 years

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This is what happens when people think budgets balance themselves.

Monday, Justin Trudeau released his 2021 budget, his first in two years, which introduces risky and untested economic schemes that will harm the personal financial security of Canadians by strangling job growth and raising taxes on hardworking Canadian families. It is most certainly not a balanced budget.
As a Member of Parliament from Alberta, I have some serious concerns about this budget and its impact on this province and the people that I represent.
Once again, there is nothing in this budget that addresses the increasing rates of rural crime in our province and across the country. Canadians are being victimized regularly and this government continues to turn a blind eye.
The budget also fails to properly support our agriculture sector and focuses primarily on climate issues. Farmers have for generations been the stewards of our land. Budget 2021 fails to recognize their important contributions to our environment, such as zero till and low till, and reward them for it. Rather than adopt Conservative Bill C-206 and exempt farm fuel from the full burden of the Carbon Tax they are only giving back a pittance of what farmers pay to run their farms and important implements such as grain dryers.
Budget 2021 contains nothing for our oil and gas sector, other than decelerating the capital cost allowance on technologies used in this sector, thereby further discouraging investment. It’s interesting to note that the word “pipeline” is mentioned 5 times in the budget, but not a single instance is related to the energy sector.
Unemployed Canadians hoping to see a plan to create new jobs and economic opportunities for their families are going to feel let down.
Workers who have had their wages cut and hours slashed hoping to see a plan to reopen the economy are going to feel let down.
Families that can’t afford more taxes and are struggling to save more money for their children’s education or to buy a home are going to feel let down.
While I am very concerned about what is not in the budget, I am also very concerned about what is in the budget. It seems to me that Budget 2021 is increasing and encouraging dependency on the government at a time when we should be concerned about strengthening our economy and securing our nation.
After celebrating a deficit of only $354.2 billion in 2020/21, the Liberals are excited to announce an additional deficit of $154.7 billion for 2021/22. In fact, Trudeau’s projections show that the federal debt load will nearly double to $1.4 trillion by 2026, up from $721 billion before the pandemic. With Budget 2021, Government debt will exceed 100% GDP. They have abandoned any fiscal anchors at all. It remains unfathomable to me that the Liberal government continues to mothball the oil and gas sector, the economic driver of our nation in favour of increasing financial burden on Canadians.
As I only received this budget at the same time as the rest of Canada, I will be spending the next few days reviewing this massive 724-page document.
Make no mistake, Budget 2021 is an election budget, but only if Justin Trudeau needs your vote.

Alberta

Emissions cap threatens Indigenous communities with higher costs, fewer opportunities

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Dale Swampy, founder of the National Coalition of Chiefs. Photograph for Canadian Energy Centre

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Deborah Jaremko

National Coalition of Chiefs founder Dale Swampy says Canada needs a more sustainable strategy for reducing emissions

The head of the National Coalition of Chiefs (NCC) says Ottawa’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap couldn’t come at a worse time for Indigenous communities.

Dale Swampy says the cap threatens the combined prospect of higher costs for fuel and groceries, along with fewer economic opportunities like jobs and revenues from involvement in energy projects.   

“Any small fluctuation in the economy is affected on our communities tenfold because we rely so much on basic necessities. And those are going to be the products that increase in price significantly because of this,” says Swampy, who founded the NCC in 2016 to fight poverty through partnerships with the natural resource sector.

He says that of particular concern is the price of fuel, which will skyrocket under the emissions cap because it will force reduced Canadian oil and gas production.

Analysis by S&P Global found that meeting the cap’s requirements would require a production cut of over one million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in 2030, and 2.1 million boe/d in 2035.

“Production gets reduced, and the cost of fuel goes up,” Swampy says.

“Our concern is that everything that has to do with both fuel for transportation and fuel to heat our homes is amplified on First Nation communities because we live in rural Canada. We live in isolated communities, and it costs much more for us to operate our daily lives because we have to travel much further than anybody in a metropolitan area. So, it’s going to impact us greatly.”

Indigenous communities are already stretched financially, he says.

“What you could buy in 2019 terms of meat and produce is almost double now, and even though the inflation rate is trending downwards, we still haven’t gotten over the impact of what it costs for a bag of groceries these days,” Swampy says.

“In our communities, more than half are under the age of 21, so there’s a lot of bigger families out there struggling to just get food on the table.”

The frustrating timing of the cap is that it comes amid a rising tide of Indigenous involvement in Canadian oil and gas. Since 2022, more than 75 Indigenous communities in Alberta and B.C. have agreed to become part owners of energy projects.

Three major projects – the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion, Coastal GasLink Pipeline and LNG Canada export terminal – together have spent more than $11 billion with Indigenous and local businesses.

“We’re at a turning point right now. There’s a real drive towards getting us involved in equity opportunities, employment opportunities, and contracting opportunities,” Swampy says.

“Everybody who didn’t talk to us in the past is coming to our front door and saying, ‘Do you want to work with us?’ It couldn’t come at a worse time when we have this opportunity. The emissions cap is going to reduce the amount of activity, and it’s going to reduce the amount of investment,” he says.

“We’re part of that industry now. We’re entrenched in it now, and we have to support it in order to support our people that work in this industry.”

Economic growth, and more time, is needed to fund development of low emissions energy sources without ruining the economy, he says.

“I think we need more consultation. We’d like to see them go back to the table and try to incorporate more of a sustainable strategy for emission reductions,” Swampy says.

“We’re the only country in the world that’s actually incorporating this type of legislation. Do you think the rest of the world is going to do this type of thing? No, they’re going to eat our lunch. They’re going to replace the production that we give up, they’re going to excel in the economy because of it, and they won’t talk about significant emission reduction initiatives.”

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David Clinton

The Hidden and Tragic Costs of Housing and Immigration Policies

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The Audit

 

 David Clinton

We’ve discussed the housing crisis before. That would include the destabilizing combination of housing availability – in particular a weak supply of new construction – and the immigration-driven population growth.

Parsing all the data can be fun, but we shouldn’t forget the human costs of the crisis. There’s the significant financial strain caused by rising ownership and rental costs, the stress so many experience when desperately searching for somewhere decent to live, and the pressure on businesses struggling to pay workers enough to survive in madly expensive cities.

If Canada doesn’t have the resources to house Canadians, should there be fewer of us?

Well we’ve also discussed the real problems caused by low fertility rates. As they’ve already discovered in low-immigration countries like Japan and South Korea, there’s the issue of who will care for the growing numbers of childless elderly. And who – as working-age populations sharply decline – will sign up for the jobs that are necessary to keep things running.

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The odds are that we’re only a decade or so behind Japan. Remember how a population’s replacement-level fertility rate is around 2.1 percent? Here’s how Canadian “fertility rates per female” have dropped since 1991:

Output image

Put differently, Canada’s crude birth rate per 1,000 population dropped from 14.4 in 1991, to 8.8 in 2023.

As a nation, we face very difficult constraints.

But there’s another cost to our problems that’s both powerful and personal, and it exists at a place that overlaps both crises. A recent analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) frames it in terms of suppressed household formation.

Household formation happens when two more more people choose to share a home. As I’ve written previously, there are enormous economic benefits to such arrangements, and the more permanent and stable the better. There’s also plenty of evidence that children raised within stable families have statistically improved economic, educational, and social outcomes.

But if households can’t form, there won’t be a lot of children.

In fact, the PBO projects that population and housing availability numbers point to the suppression of nearly a half a million households in 2030. And that’s incorporating the government’s optimistic assumptions about their new Immigration Levels Plan (ILP) to reduce targets for both permanent and  temporary residents. It also assumes that all 2.8 million non-permanent residents will leave the country when their visas expire. Things will be much worse if either of those assumptions doesn’t work out according to plan.

Think about a half a million suppressed households. That number represents the dreams and life’s goals of at least a million people. Hundreds of thousands of 30-somethings still living in their parents basements. Hundreds of thousands of stable, successful, and socially integrated families that will never exist.

And all that will be largely (although not exclusively) the result of dumb-as-dirt political decisions.

Who says policy doesn’t matter?

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