This article supplied by Troy Media.
By Lennie Kaplan
Alberta has the leverage and the responsibility to push for serious reform of Canada’s equalization system
Albertans are projected to send $252.5 billion more to Ottawa than they get back over the next 15 years —a staggering imbalance that underscores the
urgent need to overhaul federal-provincial fiscal arrangements.
That figure represents Alberta’s net fiscal contribution—the difference between what Alberta sends to Ottawa in taxes and what they get back in
return. Alberta, like all provincial governments, does not directly contribute to federal revenues.
These projections are based on fiscal estimates I’ve prepared using the same framework as Statistics Canada’s annual fiscal reports. Between 2025 and 2039, federal revenues raised in Alberta are expected to total nearly $1.42 trillion, while spending in the province will reach only $1.17 trillion. That leaves a gap of $252.5 billion.
This gap isn’t static. On an annual basis, Alberta’s contribution is projected to grow significantly over time. It’s forecast to rise from $12.7 billion in 2025, or $2,538 per person, to nearly $20.6 billion, or $3,459 per person, by 2039.
This isn’t new. Alberta has long been a major net contributor to Confederation. Between 2007 and 2023, Albertans paid $267.4 billion more to
Ottawa than they received in return, according to Statistics Canada. The only exception came in 2020 and 2021, years heavily impacted by COVID-19.
Albertans face the same federal tax rates as other Canadians but pay far more per person due to higher average incomes and a strong corporate tax base. This higher contribution translates into billions collected annually by Ottawa.
In 2025, the federal government is projected to collect $68.8 billion from Alberta, about $13,743 per person. By 2039, that will grow to $127.2 billion, or $21,380 per person. More than half will come from personal income taxes.
Meanwhile, federal spending in Alberta lags behind. In 2025, it’s expected to be $56.1 billion, or $11,205 per person—rising to $106.6 billion, or $17,831 per person, by 2039.
This includes transfers to individuals—about $17.5 billion in 2025, and $28.8 billion in 2039—and federal transfers to the provincial government, which are projected to grow from $12.9 billion to $20.9 billion. These include the Canada Health Transfer and the Canada Social Transfer, which help fund health care, education and social services.
Alberta does not receive equalization payments, which are meant to help less wealthy provinces provide comparable public services. Equalization is funded through general federal revenues, including taxes paid by Albertans. That imbalance is more than a budget line—it speaks to a deeper fairness issue at the heart of federal-provincial relations. Alberta pays more, gets less and continues to shoulder a disproportionate share of the federal burden.
That’s why Alberta must take the lead in pushing for reform. The Alberta Next Panel process—a provincial initiative to gather public input and expert advice on Alberta’s role in Confederation—gives the government an opportunity to consult with Albertans and bring forward proposals to fix the tangled mess of federal transfer programs.
These proposals should be advanced by Premier Danielle Smith’s government in discussions with Ottawa and other provinces. Alberta’s fiscal strength demands a stronger voice at the national table.
Some may argue for separation, but that’s not a viable path. The better solution is to demand fairness—starting with a more rigorous, transparent process for renewing major federal transfer programs.
Right now, Ottawa often renews key programs, like equalization, without proper consultation. That’s unacceptable. Provinces like Alberta deserve a seat at the table when billions of dollars are at stake.
If Alberta is expected to keep footing the bill, it must be treated as a full partner —not just a source of cash. Fixing the imbalance isn’t just about Alberta. A more open, co-operative approach to fiscal policy will strengthen national unity and ensure all provinces are treated fairly within Confederation.
Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance. During his tenure, he focused, among other duties, on developing meaningful options to reform federal-provincial fiscal arrangements.
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