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Trudeau’s Economic Mismanagement Exposed: GDP Report Reveals Alarming Decline in Canadian Prosperity

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The Opposition with Dan Knight

The latest “Gross Domestic Product, Income, and Expenditure: Third Quarter 2024” report highlights six consecutive declines in GDP per capita & collapsing business investment

Good evening my fellow Canadians, and welcome to the final chapter of Canada as a thriving economy, brought to you courtesy of Justin Trudeau. The latest GDP report isn’t just a spreadsheet of bad news—it’s a grim look at the devastation Trudeau has unleashed on Canada’s economy.

Here’s what they won’t tell you: while Trudeau prances around on the world stage, preaching about climate change and “equity,” the average Canadian is getting poorer. GDP per capita—one of the most telling measures of prosperity—has now declined for six consecutive quarters, hitting levels not seen since 2017. Let that sink in. Under Trudeau’s leadership, Canadians are worse off today than they were seven years ago.


Canada’s GDP Growth: A Sluggish Economy Falling Behind

The latest figures from Statistics Canada’s Gross Domestic Product, Income, and Expenditure: Third Quarter 2024 report show an economy struggling to find its footing. Real GDP grew by 0.3% in Q3 2024, a slowdown from the 0.5% growth in the first and second quarters of the year. On an annual basis, GDP growth for 2023 was a modest 1.1%, further highlighting Canada’s weak economic momentum.

In real terms, Canada’s GDP as of Q3 2024 stands at $2,419,572 million (chained 2017 dollars). While the economy continues to expand, this growth pales in comparison to the nation’s surging population.


GDP Per Capita Declines: A Warning Sign for Canadians

Canada’s economic growth is not keeping pace with its rapid population expansion. In Q3 2024, GDP per capita—arguably the most important measure of economic health—declined by 0.4%, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly drop. With a staggering 3.2% population growth in 2023, Canada’s economy cannot sustain the same level of prosperity for its citizens.

Current GDP per capita is estimated at ~$54,000, down from its pre-pandemic high of ~$58,100 in 2017, and 2.5% below 2019 levels. To return to its long-term trend, GDP per capita would need to grow at an ambitious 1.7% annually for the next decade, a rate well above the recent average of just 1.1% per year since 1981.


Historical Context: Long-Term Prosperity Eroded

The report shows a troubling trajectory in inflation-adjusted GDP per capita over decades:

  • 1981: ~$36,900
  • 2017: ~$58,100
  • 2024: ~$54,000 (estimated due to consecutive declines).

Despite Canada’s resource wealth and economic potential, GDP per capita remains 7% below its historical growth trend, signaling systemic productivity and investment issues.


Key Drivers of GDP Growth in Q3 2024

The Q3 2024 report highlights the components influencing GDP growth:

  • Household Spending: +0.9%
  • Government Spending: +1.1%
  • Business Investment in Machinery and Equipment: -7.8%
  • Exports: -0.3%
  • Imports: -0.1%

While household and government expenditures provided some lift, the steep decline in business investment—down nearly 8%—and weaker exports reveal structural weaknesses in Canada’s economic model.


A Warning for the Future

These numbers tell a grim story: Canada’s economic growth, when adjusted for its population explosion, is failing to provide real benefits to its citizens. GDP per capita declines, stagnant productivity, and plummeting business investment highlight the challenges ahead. Without dramatic improvements in productivity, competitiveness, and fiscal policy, Canada’s long-term economic prospects remain precarious.


Trudeau’s Population Bomb

In 2023, Canada’s population grew by a jaw-dropping 3.2%, adding over 1.27 million people—the size of Calgary—in just one year. Trudeau’s open-door immigration policy is out of control. But here’s the kicker: the economy isn’t keeping up. GDP growth is crawling at 0.3%, while GDP per capita—the number that actually reflects living standards—has fallen 2.5% below pre-pandemic levels.

What does this mean? Trudeau is creating a country where there are more people, but less wealth to go around. He’s importing voters for his political base while ignoring the basic economics of supply and demand. More people mean more pressure on housing, healthcare, and infrastructure—all of which are already in crisis. Trudeau gets the photo ops, and Canadians get poorer.


Productivity? What’s That?

Here’s the real scandal: Canada’s productivity is collapsing, and Trudeau couldn’t care less. Business investment in machinery and equipment—a cornerstone of economic growth—dropped 7.8% in Q3 2024. That’s not a blip. It’s part of a long-term trend.

Under Trudeau, Canada has become hostile to business. With punishing taxes, endless red tape, and policies designed to appease radical activists, companies have stopped investing. They’re pulling back because they see no future in a country run by a trust-fund prime minister who treats the economy like his personal virtue-signaling playground.


Exports Collapse, Government Spending Soars

Exports fell 0.3% this quarter, after a 1.4% drop the quarter before. That’s Canada losing its competitive edge, plain and simple. While Trudeau waxes poetic about “green transitions,” other countries are eating Canada’s lunch.

Meanwhile, Trudeau’s solution to every problem is predictable: throw money at it. Government spending rose 1.1% in Q3 2024, marking the third consecutive quarterly increase. But this isn’t investment—it’s waste. It’s billions spent on flashy programs that do nothing to address Canada’s fundamental economic problems.


The OECD Warning Trudeau Ignores

Here’s a fact Trudeau won’t tweet about: The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects that Canada will have the lowest GDP per capita growth of all member countries through 2060. That’s Trudeau’s legacy: turning Canada into the slowest-growing economy in the developed world.

This isn’t just incompetence—it’s deliberate. Trudeau’s agenda isn’t about making Canada prosperous; it’s about centralizing power. His policies crush the middle class, drive businesses out, and create dependence on government handouts.


The Final Verdict

Justin Trudeau has managed to take one of the most resource-rich, opportunity-filled countries in the world and drive it into economic stagnation. He’s turned Canada into a welfare state for the many and a playground for the elite. GDP per capita is falling, productivity is collapsing, and the future looks bleak for ordinary Canadians.

Let’s be clear: Trudeau doesn’t care. As long as he’s jet-setting to global conferences, virtue-signaling about climate justice, and securing his legacy as the darling of the global elite, the suffering of everyday Canadians is irrelevant to him.

Canada deserves better. It deserves leadership that values hard work, economic freedom, and the dignity of a prosperous nation. And until Trudeau is gone, don’t expect any of that.

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David Clinton

The Hidden and Tragic Costs of Housing and Immigration Policies

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The Audit

 

 David Clinton

We’ve discussed the housing crisis before. That would include the destabilizing combination of housing availability – in particular a weak supply of new construction – and the immigration-driven population growth.

Parsing all the data can be fun, but we shouldn’t forget the human costs of the crisis. There’s the significant financial strain caused by rising ownership and rental costs, the stress so many experience when desperately searching for somewhere decent to live, and the pressure on businesses struggling to pay workers enough to survive in madly expensive cities.

If Canada doesn’t have the resources to house Canadians, should there be fewer of us?

Well we’ve also discussed the real problems caused by low fertility rates. As they’ve already discovered in low-immigration countries like Japan and South Korea, there’s the issue of who will care for the growing numbers of childless elderly. And who – as working-age populations sharply decline – will sign up for the jobs that are necessary to keep things running.

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The odds are that we’re only a decade or so behind Japan. Remember how a population’s replacement-level fertility rate is around 2.1 percent? Here’s how Canadian “fertility rates per female” have dropped since 1991:

Output image

Put differently, Canada’s crude birth rate per 1,000 population dropped from 14.4 in 1991, to 8.8 in 2023.

As a nation, we face very difficult constraints.

But there’s another cost to our problems that’s both powerful and personal, and it exists at a place that overlaps both crises. A recent analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) frames it in terms of suppressed household formation.

Household formation happens when two more more people choose to share a home. As I’ve written previously, there are enormous economic benefits to such arrangements, and the more permanent and stable the better. There’s also plenty of evidence that children raised within stable families have statistically improved economic, educational, and social outcomes.

But if households can’t form, there won’t be a lot of children.

In fact, the PBO projects that population and housing availability numbers point to the suppression of nearly a half a million households in 2030. And that’s incorporating the government’s optimistic assumptions about their new Immigration Levels Plan (ILP) to reduce targets for both permanent and  temporary residents. It also assumes that all 2.8 million non-permanent residents will leave the country when their visas expire. Things will be much worse if either of those assumptions doesn’t work out according to plan.

Think about a half a million suppressed households. That number represents the dreams and life’s goals of at least a million people. Hundreds of thousands of 30-somethings still living in their parents basements. Hundreds of thousands of stable, successful, and socially integrated families that will never exist.

And all that will be largely (although not exclusively) the result of dumb-as-dirt political decisions.

Who says policy doesn’t matter?

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Agriculture

Restoring balance between renewable energy, agricultural land and Alberta’s iconic viewscapes

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Alberta is known around the world for many things – some of the most breathtaking and iconic scenery on earth, a world-class agricultural industry that puts high-quality food on tables across the globe and a rich history of responsible energy development. Alberta is a destination of choice for millions of visitors, newcomers and investors each year.

To ensure Alberta’s continued prosperity, it is imperative that future energy development is balanced with environmental stewardship, protecting Albertans’ ability to use and enjoy their property, and safeguarding agriculture for continued food security.

Alberta’s renewable energy sector has grown rapidly over the past decade, yet the rules to ensure responsible development have not kept up. As a result, municipalities, agricultural producers and landowners across the province raised concerns. Alberta’s government is fulfilling its duty to put Albertans first and restore the balance needed for long-term success by setting a clear path forward for responsible renewable energy development.

“We are doing the hard work necessary to ensure future generations can continue to enjoy the same Alberta that we know and love. By conserving our environment, agricultural lands and beautiful viewscapes, our government is protecting and balancing Alberta’s long-term economic prosperity. Our government will not apologize for putting Albertans ahead of corporate interests.”

Nathan Neudorf, Minister of Affordability and Utilities

Amendments to the Activities Designation Regulation and Conservation and Reclamation Regulation provide clarity for renewable energy developers on new and existing environmental protections.

These changes will create consistent reclamation requirements across all forms of renewable energy operations, including a mandatory reclamation security requirement. Albertans expect renewable power generation projects to be responsibly decommissioned and reclaimed for future generations. Alberta’s government stands firm in its commitment to protect landowners and taxpayers from being burdened with reclamation costs.

“We want to protect landowners, municipalities and taxpayers from unfairly having to cover the costs of renewable energy reclamations in the future. These changes will help make sure that all renewable energy projects provide reasonable security up front and that land will be reclaimed for future generations.”

Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas

Alberta’s government committed to an ‘agriculture first’ approach for future development, safeguarding the province’s native grasslands, irrigable and productive lands. The protection of agricultural land is not only essential to food production, but to environmental stewardship and local wildlife protection.

The Electric Energy Land Use and Visual Assessment Regulation follows this ‘agriculture first’ approach and enhances protections for municipalities’ most productive lands, establishing the need to consider potential irrigability and whether projects can co-exist with agricultural operations. These changes are critical to minimizing the impacts of energy development on agricultural lands, protecting local ecosystems and global food security. With these new rules, Alberta’s farmers and ranchers can continue to produce the high-quality products that they are renowned for.

“Our province accounts for nearly 50 per cent of Canada’s cattle, produces the most potatoes in the country, and is the sugar beet capital of Canada. None of this would be possible without the valuable, productive farmland that these new rules protect. Understanding the need for an ‘agriculture first’ approach for energy development is as simple as no farms, no food.”

RJ Sigurdson, Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation

The new Electric Energy Land Use and Visual Assessment Regulation also establishes specific guidelines to prevent projects from impacting pristine viewscapes. By establishing buffer zones and visual impact assessment zones, Alberta’s government is ensuring that industrial power projects the size of the Calgary Tower cannot be built in front of UNESCO World Heritage sites and other specified viewscapes, which will support the continued growth and success of Alberta’s tourism sector.

As Alberta’s population and economy grows, it is critical that the province has the additional power generation needed to meet increasing demand. Power generation must be developed in a balanced and responsible manner that promotes environmental stewardship, ensures the continued enjoyment of Alberta’s beautiful landscapes, and safeguards food security by protecting Alberta’s valuable agricultural lands. By encouraging the responsible development of additional power generation with these new regulations, Alberta’s government is listening to Albertans and ensuring the electricity grid is affordable, reliable and sustainable for generations to come.

Summary of Policy Changes

Following the policy direction established on February 28, 2024, Alberta’s government is now implementing the following policy and regulatory changes for renewable power development:

Agricultural lands

The new Electric Energy Land Use and Visual Assessment Regulation takes an “agriculture first” approach.
• Renewable energy developments will no longer be permitted on Land Suitability Rating System (LSRS) Class 1 and 2 lands unless the proponent can demonstrate the ability for both crops and/or livestock to coexist with the renewable generation project,

• In municipalities without Class 1 or 2 lands, Class 3 lands will be treated as Class 1 and 2.

• An irrigability assessment must be conducted by proponents and considered by the AUC.

Reclamation security

Amendments to the Activities Designation Regulation and Conservation and Reclamation Regulation create consistent reclamation requirements across all forms of renewable energy operations, including a mandatory reclamation security requirement. There will be a mandatory security requirement for projects located on private lands.

• Developers will be responsible for reclamation costs via a mandatory security or bond.

• The reclamation security will either be provided directly to the province or may be negotiated with landowners if sufficient evidence is provided to the AUC.

Viewscapes

The Electric Energy Land Use and Visual Assessment Regulation ensures pristine viewscapes are conserved through the establishment of buffer zones and visual impact assessment zones as designated by the province.

• New wind projects will no longer be permitted within specified buffer zones.

o Other proposed electricity developments located within the buffer zones will be required to submit a
visual impact assessment before approval.

• All proposed electricity developments located within visual impact assessment zones will be required to submit a visual impact assessment before approval.

Municipalities

The AUC is implementing rule changes to:

• Automatically grant municipalities the right to participate in AUC hearings.

• Enable municipalities to be eligible to request cost recovery for participation and review.

• Allow municipalities to review rules related to municipal submission requirements while clarifying consultation requirements.

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