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Trans Mountain Pipeline proving to be a generational opportunity

Published

5 months ago

6 minute read

From Energy Now

By Mark Maki
Original appeared in the Calgary Herald Here

Trans Mountain Pipeline System a Strategic Canadian Asset

On May 1, 2024, we began commercial operations of the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. Building a system that increased capacity from approximately 300,000 to 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) is proving to be one of the most strategic investments Canada has ever made. It has allowed us to diversify Canada’s customers for our oil, which has increased revenues and provided Canada with trading options in the face of tariffs from our biggest trading partner, the United States.
While energy is targeted for a lower tariff of 10 per cent (at time of writing), we expect utilization of the Trans Mountain pipeline to grow as Canadian producers look to access markets without a tariff. When the expansion project was first proposed it had three main goals — to give more capacity for responsibly produced Canadian crude oil to grow and meet the energy needs of the world, to give Canadian oil access to global markets on the Pacific Rim, and to increase the value of Canadian oil through this market diversification. I am happy to share that we are achieving these goals.
On the first goal, crude oil production increased in 2024 as producers had greater capacity to ship, and this production is set to grow further in 2025. According to industry analysts, total crude oil production in Canada reached 5.3 million bpd in December 2023. It hit 5.4 million bpd in December 2024 and is expected to reach 5.6 million bpd by December 2025.
Since May 1, Trans Mountain has sent roughly half of the shipments from our marine terminal to countries other than the United States on the Pacific Rim, and half have gone to refineries on the west coast of the United States. In a recently released independent report by Alberta Central, economist Charles St-Arnaud highlights, “non-U.S. oil exports more than doubled in the second half of 2024.”
This increased access to international markets is what drives the third goal, allowing Canada to get a better price for our product. In the past, Canada had to sell crude oil into a single market, often at a steep discount or differential to the benchmark price. This has been a substantial transfer of wealth from Canada to another country.
With the startup of the expanded system, the discount on Canadian crude oil has improved. The price differential between Western Canada Select (WCS) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) narrowed by about $10 in Q4 2024 versus Q4 2023. Analysts estimate this price uplift increased oil revenues by $10 billion since we began shipping oil through the expanded system.
We are in month 10 of commercial operations and are now identifying and investigating growth opportunities that would improve the throughput efficiency and increase the capacity of the expanded system, ideally in the next four to five years under the current regulatory regime. Execution of any project requires extensive collaboration and engagement with our business partners, governments, Indigenous peoples, community groups and other affected stakeholders. It also requires multiple levels of approvals by provincial and federal regulators.
While we see beneficial growth opportunities, before Trans Mountain or any other energy system can consider significant expansions or investments in Canada, our nation needs to find more efficiencies in effective engagement and our regulatory process. Given our evolving global energy landscape, increasing Canada’s ability to reach new markets to supply Canadian energy to other nations is becoming increasingly important.
Canada has a long history of being a stable provider of responsibly produced energy to the United States and, hopefully, this relationship will soon return to how it was before Feb. 1. However, we now have the opportunity to deliver our products to other nations on the Pacific Rim.
As stated before a committee of Parliament in 2024, the fiscal legacy of the Trans Mountain pipeline system for the Government of Canada will be achieved by being a disciplined seller. When the time is right, Canada can return the company to the private sector and receive full value for its investment. That is the goal of our entire team. That investment is proving to be the generational opportunity the federal government predicted it could be when it purchased the company. Canada’s leadership demonstrated the foresight to see this through and stepped up at a critical time to do what was good for the country.Trans Mountain is delivering what was promised, and as it turns out, just in time.

Mark Maki is chief executive of Trans Mountain.

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