Canadian Energy Centre
These three Indigenous women are leading the future of Canadian LNG
Crystal Smith, chief councillor of the Haisla Nation, Karen Ogen, CEO of the First Nations LNG Alliance, and Eva Clayton, president of the Nisga’a Nation.
From the Canadian Energy Centre
‘By being owners in these projects, we can meaningfully contribute to a cleaner and more just world’
Three female Indigenous leaders in British Columbia are leading the future of Canadian LNG.
Eva Clayton is president of the Nisga’a Nation, a joint venture partner in the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project. Karen Ogen, former elected chief of the Wet’suwet’en First Nation, is CEO of the First Nations LNG Alliance. And Crystal Smith is elected chief of the Haisla Nation, majority owner of the proposed Cedar LNG project, which is in the final stages of preparing for the green light to proceed.
“By being owners in these projects, we can meaningfully contribute to a cleaner and more just world,” said Smith, who was first elected chief of the coastal nation in 2017, during the B.C. Natural Resources Forum earlier this year.
“From an Indigenous perspective, we’re continuously taught to take care of our environment, to take care of our land, and to take only what is required. To think in a global context, I truly believe that in supporting the LNG industry, we are in fact doing that.”
Eva Clayton, back left, President of the Nisga’a Lisims Government (joint venture owner of the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project), Crystal Smith, back right, Haisla Nation Chief Councillor (joint venture owner of proposed Cedar LNG project), and Karen Ogen, front right, CEO of the First Nations LNG Alliance pose for a photograph on the HaiSea Wamis zero-emission tugboat outside the LNG2023 conference, in Vancouver, B.C., Monday, July 10, 2023. CP Images photo
The global liquefied natural gas industry is rising in importance as emerging economies in Asia look to move away from coal-fired power and European nations reduce reliance on Russia
In 2023, LNG demand reached a record 404 million tonnes, according to Shell’s latest industry outlook. Over the next two decades it is expected to rise by nearly 70 per cent, reaching 685 million tonnes by 2040.
Canada’s first LNG export terminal – located on Haisla territory – is nearing completion and preparing for startup next year.
Smith said the nation has seen great benefits from its support of the LNG Canada project, but owning Cedar LNG with partner Pembina Pipeline Corporation takes the opportunity to a new level.
“We have a bigger vision that provides better education, better health care, better justice, and a better future for our people,” she said.
“We can train our people with the skills needed to secure well-paying, family supporting jobs on Cedar LNG and other projects. We can build critical community infrastructure like our new health center and our youth center in Haisla territory.”
Smith said LNG is helping fund programs that reconnect Haisla people with their culture and language, “a language that virtually disappeared with my generation.”
“We are reigniting our potential through culture and language. And that is perhaps the most powerful thing of all. When I think of my daughter speaking Haisla with my grandchildren, that is what drives me each and every day.”
To the north in the Nass Valley, near B.C.’s border with Alaska, Clayton said the Nisga’a Nation is also using its partnerships in LNG to reconnect with language and culture.
The community owns Ksi Lisims along with Rockies LNG (a coalition of Canadian natural gas producers) and Texas-based developer Western LNG.
Construction of the LNG Canada export terminal is now more than 90 per cent complete. Photo courtesy LNG Canada
“The cultural benefits for the Nisga’a Nation will only be more enhanced as we move forward with the project,” said Clayton, who was first elected president of the community in 2016.
“There are ongoing programs that are in place so that our people and our young people will continue to speak the language. What I’ve noticed is that many of our elders that have been teaching this language are aging out. And so now we see a new generation of young people coming up to speak the language and teach language.”
In B.C.’s central interior, the Wet’suwet’en Nation is facing a loss of culture and language, Ogen said. It’s a situation that can be helped with the economic opportunities of LNG.
“We’re at a place in our community since the pandemic where we have maybe one or two fluent speakers left. That’s really not good news,” said Ogen, who served as chief from 2010 to 2016.
“We want to be able to promote our language in our community and continue promoting our culture in our community because we have very few people in my generation that have traditional names.”
Partnering in development projects like the recently completed Coastal GasLink pipeline (which will supply natural gas to the LNG Canada terminal as well as Cedar LNG) helps communities with access to clean drinking water, housing, health, wellness and education, Ogen said.
She helped found the First Nations LNG Alliance in 2015 with the goal to educate communities about the potential benefits of development.
As construction on Coastal GasLink winds down, crews are working to cleanup and reclaim the land. Clay and topsoil removed during construction has been stored on site and will now be used to contour the land to its previous shape to re-establish original drainage patterns. Photo courtesy Coastal GasLink
“I’ve learned a lot in this job. Being a girl from the rez, being a social worker, and then getting into this field, it’s something I didn’t aspire to. But for me, I’m passionate about it because of what it means to our people on the ground,” she said.
Ogen has shared that message internationally, including during a trade mission to China last fall. The smog from burning coal in Beijing heightened her conviction about the benefits of Canadian LNG in Asia, she said.
“We were given a presentation on how China still wants B.C.’s natural resources; they still want our LNG,” Ogen said.
“B.C. and Canada need to hear those loud messages because we’re at an economic opportunity that’ll help us address the greenhouse gas emissions globally.”
Clayton said she has heard the same thing.
“The messaging that I get from the international world is that they need our LNG. The Germans, Japanese, all of them are wondering why they’re not getting gas from their allies. We have a responsibility as Canadians to help the world get off of coal,” she said.
“We are working together for the benefit of our children. These major projects, every decision that we make is for the future of our children, the future of Canada, the world really when you think about the kind of industry we’re getting into, LNG.”
Rendering courtesy Cedar LNG
Smith’s Cedar LNG could be the first Indigenous-led project in the world. Pembina Pipeline plans to spend up to $300 million advancing it to a final investment decision by mid-year.
“Every time I hear about it, I literally start shaking and getting goosebumps. I’ll have many sleepless nights from now until that decision is made,” Smith said.
“Our nation has had the ability to benefit from LNG development in our territory, but let’s not let it be the last.
“There are so many other LNG projects with indigenous leadership in B.C. that have the potential to make a significant impact on the future of Indigenous people and also help fight climate change.”
Alberta
Start-up of Trans Mountain expansion ‘going very well’ as global buyers ink deals for Canadian crude
A worker at Trans Mountain’s Burnaby Terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Chinese refiner pays about US$10 more for oil off TMX compared to sales value in Alberta
Canada’s oil sands producers are “back in the limelight” for investors following completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, according to a report by Enervus Intelligence Research.
For the first time in the better part of a decade, there is now breathing room on the system to ship all of the oil producers are able to sell off the coast of B.C.
Up until this May, Trans Mountain was regularly overbooked. Not anymore.
The crude carrier Dubai Angel picked up the first shipment from the long-awaited expansion on May 22, setting sail for China and a customer of oil sands producer Suncor Energy.
Analysts estimate Trans Mountain loaded 20 vessels in June, compared to a pre-expansion average of five per month.
“You’re seeing multiple buyers. It’s going very well,” said Phil Skolnick, managing director of research with New York-based Eight Capital.
“You’re seeing the exact buyers that we always thought were going to show up, the U.S. west coast refineries and as well as the Asian refineries, and there was a shipment that went to India as well.”
The “Golden Weld” in April 2024 marked the mechanical completion and end of construction for the Trans Mountain expansion project. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
Canadian crude in demand on the global market
Asian markets – particularly China, where refineries can process “substantial quantities” of extra heavy crude and bitumen – are now “opened in earnest” to Canadian oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its June Oil 2024 report.
“There’s demand for this crude and people are going to make deals,” said Kevin Birn, chief analyst of Canadian oil markets with S&P Global.
The IEA said Canadian crude will increasingly compete with heavy oil from other countries, particularly those in Latin America and the Middle East.
June’s loading of 20 vessels is slightly lower than the 22 vessels Trans Mountain had targeted, but Skolnick said a few bumps in the project’s ramp-up are to be expected.
“About three months ago, the shippers were telling investors on their calls, don’t expect it to be a smooth ramp up, it’s going to be a bit bumpy, but I think they’re expecting by Q4 you should start seeing everyone at peak rates,” Skolnick said.
Delivering higher prices
Trans Mountain’s expanded Westridge Terminal at Burnaby, B.C. now has capacity to load 34 so-called “Aframax” vessels each month.
One of the first deals, with Chinese refiner Rongsheng Petrochemical, indicates the Trans Mountain expansion is delivering on one of its expected benefits – higher prices for Canadian oil.
Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office has said that an increase of US$5 per barrel for Canadian heavy oil over one year would add $6 billion to Canada’s economy.
The June deal between Rongsheng and an unnamed oil sands shipper saw a shipment of Access Western Blend (AWB) purchased for approximately US$6 per barrel below the Brent global oil benchmark. That implies an AWB selling price of approximately US$75 per barrel, or about US$10 more than the price received for AWB in Alberta.
Expanded export capacity at the Trans Mountain Westridge Terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
More pipeline capacity needed
Oil sands production – currently about 3.4 million barrels per day – is projected to rise to 3.8 million barrels per day by the end of the decade before declining slightly to about 3.6 million barrels per day in 2035, according to the latest outlook by S&P Global.
“Despite the recent completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion project, additional capacity will still be needed, likely via expansion or optimization of the existing pipeline system,” wrote Birn and S&P senior research analyst Celina Hwang in May.
“By 2026, we forecast the need for further export capacity to ensure that the system remains balanced on pipeline economics.”
Uncertainty over the federal government’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap “adds hesitation” to companies considering large-scale production growth, wrote Birn and Hwang.
Global oil demand rising
World oil demand, which according to the IEA reached a record 103 million barrels per day in 2023, is projected to continue rising despite increased investment in renewable and alternative energy.
A June outlook by the International Energy Forum (IEF) pegs 2030 oil demand at nearly 110 million barrels per day.
“More investment in new oil and gas supply is needed to meet growing demand and maintain energy market stability, which is the foundation of global economic and social well-being,” said IEF secretary Joseph McMonigle.
Canadian Energy Centre
What’s next? With major projects wrapping up, what does Canada’s energy future hold
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Mario Toneguzzi‘This is the first time Canada will enter the global marketplace as a global player, so it is an incredibly important change for the industry’
With the recent completions of the Trans Mountain expansion and Coastal GasLink pipelines, and the looming completion of LNG Canada within the next year, there are few major energy projects with the green light for one of the world’s largest and most responsible energy producers.
Which leaves a lingering question: In a world that has put a premium on energy security, what’s next for Canada?
Heather Exner-Pirot, a senior fellow and director of the natural resources, energy and environment program at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said Natural Resources Canada’s major projects inventory “has been in a pretty sharp decline since 2015, which is concerning.”
“It’s not just oil and gas but also mining, also electricity . . . It’s the overall context for investment in Canada,” said Exner-Pirot, who is also a special adviser to the Business Council of Canada.
“When we look at BC, we see TMX, Coastal GasLink, very soon LNG Canada will be finishing up. That’s probably in the order of $100 billion of investment that that province will lose.
“So you do start to think about what happens next. But there are some things on the horizon. I think that’s part of it. Other LNG projects where maybe it wasn’t politically popular, it wasn’t a social license, and maybe the labour force was also constrained, and now is opening opportunities.”
A recent analysis conducted by Exner-Pirot found that between 2015 and 2023, the number of energy and natural resource major projects completed in Canada dropped by 37 per cent. And those that managed to be completed often faced significant delays and cost overruns.
One notable project Exner-Pirot expects to fill the void is Ksi Lisims LNG, which is being developed on the northwest coast of Canada to export low-carbon LNG to markets in Asia. The project represents a unique alliance between the Nisga’a Nation, Rockies LNG and Western LNG.
Ksi Lisims LNG is a proposed floating LNG export facility located on a site owned by the Nisga’a Nation near the community of Gingolx in British Columbia.
The project will have capacity to produce 12 million tonnes of LNG per year, destined for markets in the Pacific basin, primarily in Asia where demand for cleaner fuels to replace coal continues to grow.
Rendering of the proposed Ksi Lisims floating LNG project. Image courtesy Ksi Lisims LNG
As well, the second phase of the LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat, B.C. shows increasing signs of moving forward, which would roughly double its annual production capacity from 14 million tonnes to 26 million tonnes, Exner-Pirot added.
While nearby, Cedar LNG, the world’s first Indigenous-owned LNG export facility, is closing in on the finish line with all permits in place and early construction underway. When completed, the facility will produce up to three million tonnes of LNG annually, which will be able to reach customers in Asia, and beyond.
According to the International Energy Agency, the world is on track to use more oil in 2024 than last year’s record-setting mark. Demand for both oil and natural gas is projected to see gradual growth through 2050, based on the most likely global scenario.
Kevin Birn, chief analyst for Canadian oil markets at S&P Global, said despite the Trans Mountain expansion increasing Canada’s oil export capacity by 590,000 barrels per day, conversations have already begun around the need for more infrastructure to export oil from western Canada.
“The Trans Mountain pipeline, although it’s critical and adds the single largest uplift in oil capacity in one swoop, we see production continue to grow, which puts pressures on that egress system,” he said.
Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
Birn said Canada remains a major global player on the supply side, being the world’s fourth-largest producer of oil and fifth-largest producer of natural gas.
“This is a really important period for Canada. These megaprojects, they’re generational. These are a once-in-a-generation kind of thing,” Birn said.
“For Canada’s entire history of being an oil and gas producer, it’s been almost solely reliant on one single export market, which is the United States. That’s been beneficial, but it’s also caused problems for Canada in that reliance from time to time.
“This is the first time Canada will enter the global marketplace as a global player, so it is an incredibly important change for the industry.”
Exner-Pirot said Canada has the ability to become a major exporter on the energy front globally, at a time when demand is accelerating.
“We have open water from B.C. to our allies in Asia . . . It’s a straight line from Canada to its allies. This is a tremendous advantage,” she said, noting the growth of data centres and AI is expected to see demand for reliable energy soar.
“We are seeing growing electricity demand after decades of plateauing because our fridges got more energy efficient and our washers and dryers got more energy efficient. Now we’re starting to see for the first time in a long time more electricity demand even in developed countries. These are all drivers.”
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