Alberta
The Day After
Well our respective leaders have expressed their concerns both for Alberta and Saskatchewan to our Prime Minister.
Premier’s Kenney and Moe both informed Mr. Trudeau of issues that must be resolved to help our provinces get back on their feet. The problem for us though is how much can Trudeau give without offending eastern Canada or the environmentalists. the big ticket items are: cancel the carbon tax, renegotiate equalization, and to let us build pipelines.
We all know that the carbon tax isn’t going away. I suspect Trudeau has spent millions of tax dollars on carbon offsets in his many attempts to sell himself to the world as a climate saviour. The Paris accord meetings alone cost us millions, never mind all the rest. Unlikely he backs down on this and angers his environmental friends.
If equalization is renegotiated in our favor, the cash flow to eastern Canada will have to shrink or stop altogether. This would send the budgets of those provinces into deficit territory fast, especially Quebec as they are the largest recipient. I don’t think we’ll get much political support down east for this idea as much as we might want it. Trudeau will not jeopardize the support he so desperately needs from the BQ to keep his agenda rolling.
How about building the Trans Mountain pipeline. Now that Trudeau has nationalized it, perhaps he’ll actually try to get it built. I can see SNC Lavalin consulting on the project, oops never mind that joke; it’s quite likely though that Trudeau uses it to his best advantage.
Allowing this one pipeline to be built, and at the same time assuring his supporters that no more pipelines will ever be built again due to Bill C-69 and Bill C-48, might be just what he needs to placate Albertans (for a time) and the environmentalists. Owning it, he can always force a shut down of production, so sort of a win all around for him.
The global investment community already knows that Canada is closed for business. Unless the government gets out of the way, the only pipelines built in our future will be done by the federal government. They will control our oil production forever. Trudeau’s plans for Phasing out the Oil Sands is already underway.
As I’ve said before, Independence for Alberta is the only reasonable option I see left to us. Everything else leaves us at the mercy of a system of government that exploits us, and keeps political power firmly vested in the east.
Once we’ve overcome the sentimental reasons to remain at the mercy of Ottawa, and embraced the logic of taking control of our own affairs, we can become an Independent nation. After that we can move forward working together as equals.
After our success, we can reach out to neighboring provinces to join us in our new nation, with a constitution that is based on Liberty, equality, and individual rights.
I really do hope that we can bring all western provinces on board, and maybe our eastern friends will change their ways, develop their economies and stand on their own two feet.
Some day, Alberta truly will be Strong and Free. In the course of us creating this new nation, we could possibly save all of Canada.
Click here to see Norman Wiebe’s post “What Now?”
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
Alberta oil sands projects poised to grow on lower costs, strong reserves
As geopolitical uncertainty ripples through global energy markets, a new report says Alberta’s oil sands sector is positioned to grow thanks to its lower costs.
Enverus Intelligence Research’s annual Oil Sands Play Fundamentals forecasts producers will boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) by the end of this decade through expansions of current operations.
“Existing oil sands projects deliver some of the lowest-breakeven oil in North America at WTI prices lower than $50 U.S. dollars,” said Trevor Rix, a director with the Calgary-based research firm, a subsidiary of Enverus which is headquartered in Texas with operations in Europe and Asia.
Alberta’s oil sands currently produce about 3.4 million bbls/d. Individual companies have disclosed combined proven reserves of about 30 billion barrels, or more than 20 years of current production.
A recent sector-wide reserves analysis by McDaniel & Associates found the oil sands holds about 167 billion barrels of reserves, compared to about 20 billion barrels in Texas.
While trade tensions and sustained oil price declines may marginally slow oil sands growth in the short term, most projects have already had significant capital invested and can withstand some volatility.
Cenovus Energy’s Christina Lake oil sands project. Photo courtesy Cenovus Energy
“While it takes a large amount of out-of-pocket capital to start an oil sands operation, they are very cost effective after that initial investment,” said veteran S&P Global analyst Kevin Birn.
“Optimization,” where companies tweak existing operations for more efficient output, has dominated oil sands growth for the past eight years, he said. These efforts have also resulted in lower cost structures.
“That’s largely shielded the oil sands from some of the inflationary costs we’ve seen in other upstream production,” Birn said.
Added pipeline capacity through expansion of the Trans Mountain system and Enbridge’s Mainline have added an incentive to expand production, Rix said.
The increased production will also spur growth in regions of western Canada, including the Montney and Duvernay, which Enverus analysts previously highlighted as increasingly crucial to meet rising worldwide energy demand.
“Increased oil sands production will see demand increase for condensate, which is used as diluent to ship bitumen by pipeline, which has positive implications for growth in drilling in liquids-rich regions such as the Montney and Duvernay,” Rix said.
“If Ottawa had it’s way Albertans would be left to freeze in the dark”
The ineffective federal net-zero electricity regulations will not reduce emissions or benefit Albertans but will increase costs and lead to supply shortages.
The risk of power outages during a hot summer or the depths of harsh winter cold snaps, are not unrealistic outcomes if these regulations are implemented. According to the Alberta Electric System Operator’s analysis, the regulations in question would make Alberta’s electricity system more than 100 times less reliable than the province’s supply adequacy standard. Albertans expect their electricity to remain affordable and reliable, but implementation of these regulations could increase costs by a staggering 35 per cent.
Canada’s constitution is clear. Provinces have exclusive jurisdiction over the development, conservation and management of sites and facilities in the province for the generation and production of electrical energy. That is why Alberta’s government is referring the constitutionality of the federal government’s recent net-zero electricity regulations to the Court of Appeal of Alberta.
“The federal government refused to work collaboratively or listen to Canadians while developing these regulations. The results are ineffective, unachievable and irresponsible, and place Albertans’ livelihoods – and more importantly, lives – at significant risk. Our government will not accept unconstitutional net-zero regulations that leave Albertans vulnerable to blackouts in the middle of summer and winter when they need electricity the most.”
“The introduction of the Clean Electricity Regulations in Alberta by the federal government is another example of dangerous federal overreach. These regulations will create unpredictable power outages in the months when Albertans need reliable energy the most. They will also cause power prices to soar in Alberta, which will hit our vulnerable the hardest.”
Finalized in December 2024, the federal electricity regulations impose strict carbon limits on fossil fuel power, in an attempt to force a net-zero grid, an unachievable target given current technology and infrastructure. The reliance on unproven technologies makes it almost impossible to operate natural gas plants without costly upgrades, threatening investment, grid reliability, and Alberta’s energy security.
“Ottawa’s electricity regulations will leave Albertans in the dark. They aren’t about reducing emissions – they are unconstitutional, ideological activist policies based on standards that can’t be met and technology that doesn’t exist. It will drive away investment and punish businesses, provinces and families for using natural gas for reliable, dispatchable power. We will not put families at risk from safety and affordability impacts – rationing power during the coldest days of the year – and we will continue to stand up for Albertans.”
“Albertans depend on electricity to provide for their families, power their businesses and pursue their dreams. The federal government’s Clean Electricity Regulations threaten both the affordability and reliability of our power grid, and we will not stand by as these regulations put the well-being of Albertans at risk.”
Related information
- Conference Board of Canada socio-economic Impacts of Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan – (April 2025)
- Alberta Electric System Operator’s position on Canadian Energy Regulations
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