Bruce Dowbiggin
Shift Work: MLB Tinkers While Its Fans Burn
Imagine there are two banks across the street from one other. One bank leaves the door to its vault open. The other— with twice as much money inside— had a sophisticated lock on its vault. But bank thieves only want to rob the bank with the larger payday, not the easier target.
Ladies and gentlemen: The Shift in MLB. Making your work way harder than it needs to be. Banning The Shift was just one of many issues that took all winter to (not) resolve in the collective bargaining brouha. (It has been shelved for further study.) If you want one indicator of MLB’s detachment from reality The Shift would suffice.
As we wrote last April , “If you want to make heads explode, bring up the subject of The Shift among traditional baseball followers. The Shift is the defensive configuration now widely employed that places three infielders on one side of the infield to counter a batter’s tendency to hit the ball in that direction.
Seeing a second baseman in short right field gobbling up ground balls that might have been hits— before baseball analytics geeks convinced managers of the data– has a particularly corrosive effect on many fans.
Why, they ask, does the batter simply not drop down a bunt the opposite way for a sure hit until they adjust the defence? Or, if that’s not macho enough, adjust his swing to send the ball the opposite way rather than into the jaws of a stacked six-man defence?
Good question. In the old expression, home-run hitters drive Cadillacs, singles hitters drive Fords. If you hit the ball over the heads of everyone into the stands 40 times a year, who cares about all those smoked ground balls that get swallowed up? You’re getting paid for homers.The rational person says let probability work, assuming enough hitters will eventually adjust to the reality of The Shift. However, hitters want to stick with what got them to the majors. They fear change. Something about the look of The Shift makes them unhinged. Naturally, baseball purists want a rule against it NOW! Not for them risk management when aesthetics are involved. They’re like the people who refused to wear seat belts because Henry Ford didn’t install them. Go figure.”
Indeed, go figure. The 2022 MLB season got the go-ahead this week when players rejectred the advice of their executive council to accept an offer from owners to start a 162-game season. (Of note, this might be the first time the MLB owners have ever cracked the solidarity of players in their interminable 60-year running battle.)
There are boatloads of dollars involved, rights to international players, draft lotteries and revenue sharing in the CBA. Most fans could give a flip about the dollars and cents. What they’re interested in is what will baseball do to improve the product? The DN is now universal. And, as we mentioned, the game has been slowed to a charade of batters working counts, defying The Shift and parades of situational pitchers.
As NBC Sports notes, the average time of nine-inning games in 2021 was 3:10, a 20-minute increase from 2010 and five-minute increase from 2019, the previous full 162-game season. Balls-in-play have reached historic lows as batters look to hoist everything over the fence.
The new CBA did address a few hangovers from the Covid accommodations. There will be no seven-inning games for doubleheaders and (sadly) no “ghost runner” on second base in extra innings. Teams are now restricted in how often a player can be shuttled back and forth from the minors.
But the biggest issues on pace-of-play have been sent out for study and a vote later on. Specifically, as part of the deal the MLB Players union granted MLB the ability to unilaterally implement changes with a 45-day notice in 2023. Banning The Shift will be among the proposals considered.
Also MLB seems on the verge of finally adopting a pitch clock. While sports such as tennis and golf have adopted a clock to speed up play, baseball has been resistant, allowing players to fritter away time by tightening gloves, pre-pitch routines, etc. Stalling is the bane for the sub-three-hour game.
The time clock will force a pitcher to deliver a pitch 14 seconds after receiving the ball with the bases empty, 19 seconds with runners on base. The average game time decreased from 3:02 to 2:41 after the pitch clock was adopted in the minor leagues.
While no one seems to asking for it, MLB is also talking about bigger bases to reduce the distance between bases. If that’s supposed to bring the stolen base back then bring it on.
Something many people, IDLM included, have asked for is removing the human factor in calling balls and strikes. As we wrote last October the failure rate by MLB umps is bracing. “For instance, Angel Hernandez missed 356 of the 4833 pitches he called this season for 92.6% accuracy. Brian O’Nora (91.8% accuracy), Jerry Meals (93%), Rob Drake (92.1%), CB Buckner (92.7%) Doug Eddings (92.6%), Larry Vanover (92.5%), Ron Kulpa (91.8%) and the legend Joe West (92.2%) are among the many who leave something to be desired.”
You’d think a league dealing with something trivial as the size of bases might want to work on balls/ strike calls. But no, there seems no interest in using the virtual strike zone to end this charade. Sort of like MLB hitters forgoing half the diamond to hit into The Shift.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster (http://www.notthepublicbroadcaster.com). The best-selling author was nominated for the BBN Business Book award of 2020 for Personal Account with Tony Comper. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s also a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book with his son Evan Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History is now available on http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-personalaccount.aspx
Bruce Dowbiggin
Think U.S. Hockey Model Works Best? Guess Again
Canadians are still lamenting the pasting Team Canada absorbed at the World Junior Championships in Ottawa, won by the USA. Out of the medals, beaten by Latvia and Cechia, among others. There’s talk about the ongoing problems of the development system and the people at Hockey Canada.
Yes, Canada’s top eligible players (Macklin Celibrini, Connor Bedard) are in the NHL and unavailable to the team. And the massive feeder system— prospects spread out over the CHL, Junior A and NCAA— is inefficient at best. But the talent window is definitely narrowing.
As we wrote in August of 2021, “The hockey pipeline is full of young men whose fathers could give them a hockey education but who also knew many of right people to tap into. The sophisticated training and arduous diet regimes are getting more like Tom Brady and less like Gump Worsley. And they’re expensive— even in Howe’s home nation of Canada which honours its roots.”
What might be of interest is that people in the development system of American hockey are similarly distressed about the problems of developing players in their country. Cost, bureaucracy and the sheer time commitment for families is breaking a lot of people. “This discipline and access is reflected in the United States where the boom in hockey participation is resulting not in farm boys and rink rats but in privileged sons and daughters of highly paid NHL stars getting an inside track on making the league or the Olympics.”
Topher Scott of The Hockey Think tank.com has posted about what he sees in American hockey culture. “I’ve talked to so many people in youth hockey about how to change the toxic culture – and it’s tough hearing so many good people saying they can’t do it the way they want (the right way) because everyone else is doing it the other way (the business way) and if they don’t do it that way they’ll lose their club.
I’m calling BS. If you are involved in youth hockey, please listen to this clip. And if you are a person of influence wherever you are at, stand tall and don’t cater to the crazy. The only way we’ll see positive change is if people of influence in youth hockey areas, who know better, go against the grain and lead the change.”
The comments on his post are familiar in the burgeoning hockey system that now has roots in most states in the U.S. “Such a scam to charge these families 5/6k in dues per year and then pay another 10/20/30k in travel expenses.”
—“It’s an arms race and you are not going to stop that. Make it fun for the other 90% of kids and families that aren’t part of the arms race.”
—“This system beyond broken. Organizations telling some kids In the contract we have the right to put you on the lower team, as we may find other players to replace you, along w/ we are flying players in to play.”
—“U14 has kids who live in central USA playing on east coast teams. Nj pa and ny loaded w aaa programs, many refuse to play each other because of rankings”.
—“…the hockey culture DOES not like disruptors- they are a THREAT to exposing bad things & bad people. Loss of power, control, money & damaging adult egos trumps what is best for kids.”
—“I find it unbelievable that travel hockey programs demand kids miss Fri and Monday school days to play wraparound weekend tournaments 5X/yr or risk being thrown off the team. Its gotta stop!”
Scott and his X followers are describing the same issues affecting hockey in Canada where a number of financial and social changes have created a system dominated by clubs, agents, schools and ambitious parents. The image he presents of the overbearing parent— in concert with team officials— who are stage managing a child’s progress is familiar. One that dictates needing to take out a mortgage to create a young hockey star.
As we have written recently, the NCAA decision to now allow players with service in the CHL to play at the U.S. college level has accelerated the meat grinder of development hockey in Canada. Again, delusional parents are now demanding that their child have extra ice time and a prime spot on a team so as to qualify for a pro career. Adding to the pressure is the NIL program now radically restructuring college sports in the U.S. After winning the rights to name, likeness and image in the U.S. Supreme Court athletes can now be paid millions in some cases to attend a certain school or transfer through the “portal” system,.
While NIL has not hit hockey as dramatically as other sports, it’s just a matter of time till schools wanting the next Connor Bedard to attend their school will be tossing alumni and sponsor money to over-18 prodigies. Parents seeing this will re-double efforts at the minor level to get their child on the prospect track, paying vast amounts for training and travel.
One problem in Canada, as mentioned, is the vast network of teams demanding players on the men’s side. For prospects to star on the first line or in goal there must be others to play on the third line or be a seventh defenceman. This creates a meat grinder. While clubs sometimes level with parents about ice time there are plenty who are in denial, hoping their son or daughter can still cash in on the riches in the NHL from the fringes of the roster.
Some of this has been alleviated by scholarships for players depending on their years in the system. Canadian University hockey is full of 22-26 year olds using their CHL grants to pursue education. But there are many who simply melt away to play in minor pro leagues across the country and in Europe.
In the long run this may make the CHL an elite league for under 18 players or those who can’t manage the scholastic record to switch to NCAA. The NHL likes the longer CHL schedule with its pro model, but there is much to be said for a prospect growing at an academic institution, broadening their horizons.
But, as always, parents will follow the money and the dream— even if they’re unattainable.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
Bruce Dowbiggin
Trump Goes Fishing, Catches A Prime Minister On The First Cast
“I started a joke that started the whole world crying”. The BeeGees
Hands up all those who had Canada, Greenland and Panama as a parlay on their cards. No? Not shocked. We are at the start of a new U.S. foreign policy doctrine, and it has many in Canada panicking.
There have been famous doctrines over the years governing U.S. foreign policy. The Monroe Doctrine. The Truman Doctrine. The Reagan Doctrine. Now we have the Trump “You Snooze You Lose” Doctrine. The past and future POTUS articulated this realpolitik in the weeks following his election. Tariffs on Canada. Border control. No foreign entanglements. It’s become obvious in the past week that his most vulnerable target would be dozing self-congratulatory postmodern Trudeaupia.
Which has now, suddenly, awoken to its jeopardy. Yes, the nation that lowered flags claiming it’s a genocidal culture, removed national symbols, ignored the PM dressing as Sinbad, locked down tighter than a gnat’s ass for Covid and threatened truckers with loss of jobs and income for not taking an experimental vaccine— these people who elected Trudeau three times as PM wonder why Trump has no respect for Canada
During Tuesday’s extensive presser Trump said he liked Canadians but summed up their weakness. “Canada is subsidized (by the U.S.) to the tune of about $200 billion a year, plus other things. And they don’t essentially have a military. They have a very small military. They rely on our military. It’s all fine, but you know they gotta pay for that.” The question is how much of Canada’s sovereignty will be sacrificed in this accounting?
In their alarm the maple leaf brigade forgets that, with the Apprentice star, it’s nothing personal. He loves to make deals. He likes to mock his opponents. And he likes to win. (After he beats you he shakes your hand and invites you to Mar A Lago.) Like a good poker player he looks for weakness to exploit. And in the Canada of Justin Trudeau he saw weakness everywhere. To paraphrase the Donald, the most weak weakness in the history of the world. Trump seasoned his jibes by proposing hockey star Wayne Gretzky to be governor of a 51st state (Gretzky demurred).
None of this is new. The imbalance between Canada and the U.S. has been longstanding. In July of 2018 we wrote “Sometimes An Ingrate Nation: Bitching About A Free Tab On America’s Bill”. We noted, “Canadians miffed with President Trump’s bracing assessment of Canadians as partners have decided that they will boycott America. Perhaps they are forgetting how lucky they are.”
The boycott fizzled, and it was business as usual. Luckily for slack Canadians no one in the Biden United States was willing to pursue the freeloader status of Canada. Too polite? Too preoccupied? Doesn’t matter now. Trump noticed. Much of what followed is bluff, like a poker player. But it hit a nerve.
When the notion of putting 25 percent tariffs on Canada was first broached there was brave talk of retaliation. Led by the dubious dauphin Trudeau humourless suits blustered about striking back. Instead of simply addressing the border issue Trump identified, Canadians vowed instead not to travel south again, to boycott American goods, denying the U.S. the CDN strategic maple sugar reserve.
Bad idea. A re-focussed Trump is now talking more seriously about a 51st state, an open border, a blended economy (an idea promoted by Canada’s Kevin O’Leary in his chats with GOP grandees). Sometimes it’s lighthearted. Tuesday it was not. He wants Canada to take border security seriously. He wants Canadians to pay for it. There is enough truth to Canada’s indentured state that hosers everywhere now realize their vulnerability under Trudeau’s progressive regime.
Because they fear Trump, Canada’s progressive howler monkeys instead beat up on Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, the presumptive PM. They call him a mini Trump and other things they’re too cowardly to hurl at Trump directly. Ottawa’s purchased media whine that PP won’t constantly stick his foot in his mouth like their beloved Elizabeth May, giving them lots of columns and panel topics.
It didn’t fool anyone. The Trudeau time line to hang on as PM till October was destroyed by Trump’s mockery about a 51st state. Trump’s agitation made it obvious that Canada could not trust Trudeau to negotiate with POTUS 45/ 47. With PMJT absent, premiers like Doug Ford (Ontario) and Danielle Smith (Alberta) went around Surfer Boy to appeal to Americans for mercy.
Trudeau— who’d routinely maligned Trump for a decade— made himself the victim of the play, scuttling off to his governor general for a perogy prorogation. Now we have PMJT offering to resign, but only after playing parliamentary peekaboo into the summer. Leaving Canada in the lurch while Liberals leisurely solve their Trudeau problem.
How seriously should Canada’s fainting goats take Trump’s agenda? After all he’s putting the full-court press on Greenland, Panama and the Gulf of Mexico/ America, too. Canadians should first understand that most of this thrust is for his domestic consumption. Facing the remnants of the lengthy lawfare campaign against him and having just one term to work within he’s cognizant of keeping Americans happy.
Those who recall the president before Mr. Senile will remember that Trump shoots high to settle lower on the expectation scale. He wants Canada’s resources, not freeloaders like Jagmeet Singh. Plus he needs an outlet in the eastern Arctic. And freer markets for America’s producers.
When the Gretzky jokes and Trudeau jabs subside there will be still be the matter of Canada paying more when federal governments have frittered away a legacy on vanity climate projects and healthcare that doesn’t work. If Trump offers Canada a way out of that bind there might be something new under the northern sun.
It won’t come without strings. He’ll say, “You’re broke, but maybe can work something out”. At which point Canadians will best summed be up by another BeeGees tearjerker, “How Can You Mend A Broken Heart?”
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
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