Alberta
Saudi oil pivot could shake global markets and hit Alberta hard

This article supplied by Troy Media.
By Rashid Husain Syed
Riyadh is walking away from its role as oil market stabilizer, signalling a return to market-share battles that threaten prices and Canadian revenues
After boosting crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May—triple the originally planned volume—OPEC+ shocked observers by intending to repeat the increase in June, despite slowing global demand and the dampening effects of U.S. trade tariffs.
The decision has ripple effects far beyond the Middle East. OPEC+—the alliance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia—collectively controls about 40 per cent of the world’s oil production. Its actions directly influence global oil prices, which in turn affect everything from gasoline prices across Canada to government revenues in resource-dependent provinces like Alberta.
Is OPEC+ sabotaging itself?
The move contradicts the group’s modus operandi of the past several years. Since 2016, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, has tried to balance global oil markets by curbing output. At its peak, the group cut production by more than five million barrels per day—about five per cent of global supply—with Saudi Arabia alone contributing two-fifths of that total.
This strategy was meant to stabilize prices and ensure petrostates such as Saudi Arabia could meet ballooning budget demands. Many OPEC members remain heavily reliant on oil revenues to fund government spending, with few alternative income streams.
But after years of shouldering the burden, Riyadh appears to have had enough. Reuters recently reported that Saudi officials have been quietly telling allies and industry experts the kingdom is no longer willing to continue absorbing the cost of propping up global prices through deeper cuts.
There is logic behind this frustration. Despite OPEC+ efforts, markets remain volatile. Crude has dropped about 19 per cent this year, briefly touching a four-year low, mainly due to fears that U.S. tariffs will reduce global energy demand.
Some of this instability can be traced to cheating within OPEC+. Several members, including Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia, have regularly exceeded their quotas, often at Saudi Arabia’s expense.
Riyadh’s patience appears to have run out. “OPEC’s decision framework appears to be fueled by persistent cheating,” noted TD Cowen strategists Dan Ghali and Bart Melek. The group warned in a note to clients that inventories could rise by 200 million barrels in the next three quarters, potentially pushing crude prices into the low US$50 range.
Saudi Arabia has no intention of sacrificing more market share to cover for others. This echoes an earlier episode when former Saudi oil minister Ali AlNaimi, frustrated by similar quota violations and the rise of U.S. shale producers, chose to flood the market to protect Saudi interests. In 2016, he famously told American drillers they could “lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate” as prices sank below US$50 per barrel.
The result was carnage in the oil patch—and a temporary ceasefire among producers.
History may be repeating itself. With other OPEC+ members again failing to meet targets, sources told Reuters that Riyadh is now shifting strategy. Rather than continuing to play the role of swing producer, Saudi Arabia may focus on regaining market share by boosting production, effectively stepping back from the group’s five-year effort to balance prices.
Despite its dependency on oil revenues, the kingdom appears ready to endure lower prices. Media reports quoting government sources suggest Saudi Arabia may increase borrowing and scale back spending to compensate. “The Saudis are ready for lower prices and may need to pull back on some major projects,” one insider told Reuters.
Saudi Arabia needs prices above US$90 per barrel to balance its budget—a higher threshold than other major producers such as the United Arab Emirates, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Theories abound about the motivations behind the kingdom’s apparent policy shift: retaliation against quota-busting allies, competition with emerging producers like the United States and Guyana, or even an attempt to please U.S. President Donald Trump, who has publicly called for higher OPEC output to ease gasoline prices.
Whatever the motivation, the consequences are real. The IMF has lowered its economic growth forecast for oil-exporting Middle East countries to 2.3 per cent from four per cent projected in October, citing lower prices and rising geopolitical uncertainty. It also revised Saudi Arabia’s growth outlook to three per cent from 3.3 per cent after oil prices fell 13 per cent in the past month alone. This has implications far beyond the Middle East, including for Canada. For Alberta, where oil sales remain a pillar of the economy, weakening global prices mean reduced royalties, tighter fiscal planning and less room for public investment.
As global oil markets enter another uncertain chapter, the aftershocks will be felt from Riyadh to Edmonton.
Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.
Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.
Alberta
SERIOUS AND RECKLESS IMPLICATIONS: An Obscure Bill Could Present Material Challenge for Canada’s Oil and Gas Sector

From Energy Now
By Tammy Nemeth and Ron Wallace
Bill S-243 seeks to “reshape the logic of capital markets” by mandating that all federally regulated financial institutions, banks, pension funds, insurance companies and federal financial Crown Corporations align their investment portfolios with Canada’s climate commitments
Senator Rosa Galvez’s recent op-ed in the National Observer champions the reintroduction of her Climate-Aligned Finance Act (Bill S-243) as a cornerstone for an “orderly transition” to achieving a low-carbon Canadian economy. With Prime Minister Mark Carney—a global figure in sustainable finance—at the helm, Senator Galvez believes Canada has a “golden opportunity” to lead on climate-aligned finance. However, a closer examination of Bill S-243 reveals a troubling agenda that potentially risks not only crippling Canada’s oil and gas sector and undermining economic stability, but one that could impose unhelpful, discriminatory measures. As Carney pledges to transform Canada’s economy, this legislation would also erode the principles of fairness in our economic and financial system.
Introduced in 2022, Bill S-243 seeks to “reshape the logic of capital markets” by mandating that all federally regulated financial institutions, banks, pension funds, insurance companies and federal financial Crown Corporations align their investment portfolios with Canada’s climate commitments, particularly with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The Bill’s provisions are sweeping and punitive, targeting emissions-intensive sectors like oil and gas with what could only be described as an unprecedented regulatory overreach. It requires institutions to avoid financing “new fossil fuel supply infrastructure” and to plan for a “fossil-free future,” effectively discouraging investment in Canada’s energy sector. To that end, it imposes capital-risk weights of 1,250% on debt for new fossil fuel projects and 150% or more for existing ones, making such financing prohibitively expensive. These measures, as confirmed by the Canadian Bankers’ Association and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions in 2023 Senate testimony, would have the effect of forcing Canadian financial institutions to exit oil and gas financing altogether. It also enshrines into law that entities put climate commitments ahead of fiduciary duty:
“The persons for whom a duty is established under subsection (1) [alignment with climate commitments] must give precedence to that duty over all other duties and obligations of office, and, for that purpose, ensuring the entity is in alignment with climate commitments is deemed to be a superseding matter of public interest.”
While the applicability of the term used in the legislation that defines a “reporting entity” may be a subject of some debate, the legislation would nonetheless direct financial institutions to put “climate over people”.

There are significant implications here for the Canadian oil and gas sector. This backbone of the economy employs thousands and generates billions in revenue. Yet, under Bill S-243, financial institutions would effectively be directed to divest from those companies if not the entire sector. How can Canada become an “energy superpower” if its financial system is directed to effectively abandon the conventional energy sector?
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Beyond economics, Bill S-243 raises profound ethical concerns, particularly with its boardroom provisions. At least one board member of every federally regulated financial institution must have “climate expertise”; excluded from serving as a director would be anyone who has worked for, lobbied or held shares in a fossil fuel company unless their position in the fossil fuel company was to help it align with climate commitments defined in part as “planning for a fossil fuel–free future.” How is “climate expertise” defined? The proposed legislation says it “means a person with demonstrable experience in proposing or implementing climate actions” or, among other characteristics, any person “who has acute lived experience related to the physical or economic damages of climate change.” Bill S-243’s ideological exclusion of oil and gas-affiliated individuals from the boards of financial institutions would set a dangerous precedent that risks normalizing discrimination under the guise of environmental progress to diminish executive expertise, individual rights and the interests of shareholders.
Mark Carney’s leadership adds complexity to this debate. As the founder of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, Carney has long advocated for climate risk integration in finance, despite growing corporate withdrawal from the initiative. Indeed, when called to testify on Bill S-243 in May 2024, Carney praised Senator Galvez’s initiative and generally supported the bill stating: “Certain aspects of the proposed law are definitely achievable and actually essential.” If Carney’s Liberal government embraces Bill S-243, or something similar, it would send a major negative signal to the Canadian energy sector, especially at a time of strained Federal-Provincial relations and as the Trump Administration pivots away from climate-related regulation.
Canada’s economy and energy future faces a pivotal moment. Bill S-243 is punitive, discriminatory and economically reckless while threatening the economic resilience that the Prime Minister claims to champion. A more balanced strategy, one that supports innovation without effectively dismantling the financial underpinnings of a vital industry, is essential. What remains to be seen is will this federal government prioritize economic stability and regulatory fairness over ideological climate zeal?
Tammy Nemeth is a U.K.-based energy analyst. Ron Wallace is a Calgary-based energy analyst and former Permanent Member of the National Energy Board.
Alberta
Don’t stop now—Alberta government should enact more health-care reform

From the Fraser Institute
It’s unusual to see a provincial government take on health-care reform. But not so in Alberta, where major reforms have been underway for almost a year. The province has long struggled with lengthy waits for non-emergency care and a majority (58 per cent) of Albertans last year were unsatisfied with the government’s handling of health care.
And who could blame them?
The median wait last year in Alberta was 19.2 weeks to see a specialist (after getting a referral from a family doctor) followed by the same amount of time to receive treatment. This combined 38.4-week wait marked the longest delay for non-emergency care in Alberta since data were first published more than 30 years ago. Also last year, an estimated 208,000 patients waited for care in Alberta. These waits are not benign and can result in prolonged pain and discomfort, psychological distress, and can impact our ability to work and earn money.
In fact, according to our new study, last year health-care wait times in Alberta cost patients $778 million—or more than $3,700 per-patient waiting. This estimate, however, doesn’t include leisure time after work or on weekends. When this time was included in the calculation, the total cost of these waits balloons to more than $2.3 billion or around $11,000 per patient.
Again, to its credit, the Smith government has not shied away from reform. It’s reorganized one of province’s largest employers (Alberta Health Services) with the goal of improving health-care delivery, it plans to change how hospitals are funded to deliver more care, and it continues to contract out publicly funded surgeries to private clinics. Here, the government should look at expanding, based on the success the Saskatchewan Surgical Initiative (SSI), which helped increase that province’s surgical capacity by delivering publicly funded surgeries through private clinics and shortened the median health-care wait from 26.5 weeks in 2010 to 14.2 weeks by 2014.
The SSI also “pooled” referrals in Saskatchewan together and allowed patients to choose which specialist they wanted to see for treatment, and patients received estimates of how long they would wait before choosing.
In Alberta, however, family doctors still refer patients to one specific specialist at a time yet remain potentially unaware of other appropriate doctors with shorter waits. But if Alberta also put specialist wait lists and referrals into one list, and provided updated wait times information, a family doctor could help patients choose a specialist with a shorter wait time. Or better yet, if Albertans could access that information online with an Alberta health card, they could make that decision on their own while working with their family doctor.
Make no mistake, change is in the air for health care in Alberta. And while key policy changes are now underway, the Smith government should consider more options while this window for reform remains open.
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