Economy
Recession Fears Loom, 51% of Canadians Would Miss Mortgage Payment Within Three Months

From RateFilter.ca
New data shows that Canadians are struggling with housing costs, with 62% spending more than the recommended 30% of pre-tax income on housing. Homeowners aren’t as financially secure as presumed, especially those holding mortgages. A concerning 51% of mortgage holders couldn’t survive more than three months without their primary income. This financial strain underscores the urgent need for both individuals and policymakers to address housing affordability.
Key Takeaways
- 51% of mortgage holders could not make it more than three months without their primary income without missing a payment; 16% couldn’t last even one month.
- 62% of Canadians exceed the CMHC’s recommended 30% limit on housing expenses, with the average household spending 37% of their pre-tax income on housing.
- Homeowners generally spend less on housing than renters (average of 34% vs. 43% of their pre-tax income). However, this is skewed by the 35% of homeowners who are mortgage-free. Mortgage holders spend an average of 41% of their income on housing.
The Hidden Struggles Behind the Housing Data
For many Canadians, the dream of homeownership is being challenged by a worrying financial reality. New data reveals a landscape where both homeowners and renters are grappling with costs that exceed the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) recommended limit of spending no more than 30% of pre-tax income on housing.
Homeowners Not as Secure as Assumed
Although homeowners have traditionally enjoyed a degree of financial security, the numbers tell a different story. Yes, 35% of homeowners are mortgage-free, which brings down the average housing expenditure for this group to 34% of pre-tax income. However, that percentage can give a misleading impression of overall financial well-being.
The Precarious Position of Mortgage Holders
When you focus on homeowners with mortgages, the picture becomes quite bleak. These individuals are devoting a whopping 41% of their pre-tax income to housing. Alarmingly, over half (51%) couldn’t manage more than three months without their main source of income; 16% would be in trouble within just a month.
Ongoing Financial Strain Amid Past Rate Increases
Over the past 18 months, we’ve seen a series of rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, which has contributed to an ongoing financial strain for many Canadians. These historical increases have only intensified concerns about housing affordability and financial stability, irrespective of what future rate changes may or may not occur. This backdrop of rising rates adds another dimension to the already challenging landscape of housing costs.
A Critical Time for Financial Health
“These statistics corroborate what we’ve been hearing anecdotally,” says Andy Hill, co-founder of ratefilter.ca. “Many Canadians feel like they’re at a breaking point due to higher interest rates. Even if the Bank of Canada pauses the rate hike, these borrowers will still be dealing with rates at a 20-year high.”
The Fragile Job Market
The data is even more unsettling when considering job security. Despite a low unemployment rate, 16% of mortgage holders could not withstand a month without income before falling behind on their mortgage payments.
Conclusion
These figures underscore the urgency for both policymakers and individuals to address the rising costs of housing in Canada. While the statistics offer a broad view, the individual stories highlight an unsettling financial instability lurking beneath the surface.
Proportion of Pre-Tax Income on Housing
R1. Please think about how much you spend on housing each month. This would include mortgage/ rent, property tax, strata fees, and utility costs such as electricity, heat, water, and other municipal services. Approximately what percentage of your pre-tax income do you spend on housing?
Methodology
- These results are based on an online survey of a representative sample of 1,548 adult Canadians (including 1,028 homeowners and 650 mortgage holders) surveyed using Leger’s panel, LEO, from October 13-16, 2023.
- As a non-random internet survey, a margin of error is not reported. For comparison, a probability sample of n=1,548 would have a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Any discrepancies between totals are due to rounding.
2025 Federal Election
Poilievre to let working seniors keep more of their money

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation welcomes the Conservative Party’s promise to boost the basic personal amount for working seniors and calls on all parties to commit to further tax relief.
“Many seniors are working because they’re struggling to pay the bills and this tax relief will help them,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Letting working seniors earn an extra $10,000 tax-free is a good thing and it will make their golden years more affordable.”
Today, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre announced he would expand the tax-free portion of seniors’ incomes.
Poilievre said he would “increase the basic personal amount for working seniors to $25,000, meaning seniors will be able earn an additional $10,000 of employment income tax free.”
Poilievre estimates this would “save a working senior making $35,000 a year an extra $1,300.”
The Conservative Party also promises income tax relief that would save a two-income family up to $1,800. The Liberal Party promises income tax relief that would save a two-income family up to $825.
“The best way the government can make life more affordable is to let people keep more of their own money,” Terrazzano said. “All parties should commit to further tax relief, especially for Canadian businesses which need to be competitive in the wake of American tariffs.”
2025 Federal Election
Voters should remember Canada has other problems beyond Trump’s tariffs

From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro
Canadians will head to the polls on April 28 after Prime Minister Mark Carney called a snap federal election on Sunday. As the candidates make their pitch to try and convince Canadians why they’re best-suited to lead the country, Trump’s tariffs will take centre stage. But while the tariff issue is important, let’s not forget the other important issues Canadians face.
High Taxes: As many Canadians struggle to make ends meet, taxes remain the largest single expense. In 2023, the latest year of available data, the average Canadian family spent 43.0 per cent of its income on taxes compared to 35.6 per cent on food, shelter and clothing combined. High personal income tax rates also make it harder to attract and retain doctors, engineers and other high-skilled workers that contribute to the economy. Tax relief, which delivers savings for families across the income spectrum while also improving Canada’s competitiveness on the world stage, is long overdue.
Government Debt: At the end of March, Canada’s total federal debt will reach a projected $2.2 trillion or $52,094 for every man, woman and child in Canada. The federal government expects to pay $53.7 billion in debt interest costs in fiscal year 2024/25, diverting taxpayer dollars away from programs including health care and social services. The next federal government should rein in spending and stop racking up debt.
Red Tape: Smart regulation is necessary, but the Canadian economy is plagued by a costly and excessive regulatory burden imposed by governments. Regulatory compliance costs the economy approximately $12.2 billion each year, and the average business dedicates an estimated 85 days towards compliance. The next federal government should cut undue red tape and make Canada an easier place to do business.
Housing Affordability: Canadians across the country are struggling with the cost of housing. Indeed, Canada has the largest gap between home prices and incomes among G7 countries, and rents have spiked in recent years in many cities. In short, there’s not enough housing to meet demand. The next federal government should avoid policies that stoke further demand while working with the provinces and municipalities to remove impediments to homebuilding across Canada.
Collapsing Business Investment: Business investment is necessary to equip workers with the tools, technology and training they need to be more productive, yet business investment has collapsed. Specifically, from 2014 to 2021, inflation-adjusted business investment per worker fell from $18,363 to $14,687. Declining investment has helped create Canada’s productivity crisis, which has led to a decline in Canadian living standards. Clearly, Ottawa needs a new policy approach to address this crisis.
Declining Living Standards: According to Statistics Canada, inflation-adjusted per-person GDP—a broad measure of living standards—dropped from the post-pandemic peak of $60,718 in mid-2022 to $58,951 by the end of 2024. The next government should swiftly reverse this trend by enacting meaningful policy reforms that will help promote prosperity. The status quo simply will not suffice.
Tariffs are a clear threat to the Canadian economy and should be discussed at length during this election. But we shouldn’t forget other important issues that arose long before President Trump began this trade war and will continue to hurt Canadians if not addressed.
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