Premier Notley easing off the brake on oil production limit

From the Province of Alberta

Province eases oil production limits

As storage levels draw down and the value of Alberta’s oil increases, the province is increasing the limit on oil production.

Premier Rachel Notley’s decision to protect the value of Alberta’s oil has been instrumental in helping reduce the amount of oil in storage, which had been nearly twice the normal level and resulted in the resources owned by all Albertans being given away for pennies on the dollar.

In response to new storage data, Alberta is increasing production in February and March to 3.63 million barrels per day, which is a 75,000-barrel per day increase from the January limit of 3.56 million barrels per day.

“We’re not out of the woods yet, but this temporary measure is working. While it hasn’t been easy, companies big and small have stepped up to help us work through this short-term crisis while we work on longer-term solutions, like our investment in rail and our continued fight for pipelines. I want to thank Alberta producers for working with us to protect the jobs and livelihoods of thousands of Alberta families and businesses, and your cooperation has been key to easing these limits ahead of schedule.”

Premier Rachel Notley

Alberta’s goal has always been to match production levels to what can be shipped using existing pipeline and rail capacity, while encouraging a reduction in storage levels. The decision to temporarily limit oil production was applied fairly and equitably, and has been instrumental in saving jobs across the energy sector.

Since the production limit was announced in December 2018, storage levels in Alberta have dropped ahead of schedule, declining by five million barrels to a total of 30 million barrels in storage. Analysis based on independent data suggests storage levels have been decreasing roughly one million barrels per week since the start of 2019 and are on track to continue clearing the storage glut that led to unprecedented discounts for Alberta oil in late 2018.

“I will never stop fighting for Albertans and Canadians to get top dollar for the resources that belong to them. We will adjust these production levels as necessary going forward and we will not waver in our fight for a Made-in-Alberta strategy to build new pipelines, access new markets and add value that creates jobs by upgrading more of our oil and gas here at home.”

Premier Rachel Notley

Background

Based on the Q1 2019 forecast of production, government announced on Dec. 2, 2018 a reduction in production of 325,000 barrels a day of raw crude oil and raw bitumen. That 325,000 bpd was established as the difference between pipeline and takeaway capacity of 3.56 million barrels a day and the Q1 2019 publicly stated industry-wide forecast production of 3.89 million barrels a day.

The first 10,000 barrels per day a company produces remains exempt from any production limits, meaning 28 of over 300 producers in Alberta are subject to the production limits.

Since the production limits were introduced, government has amended its formula for determining how to allocate space under the production limit. It was determined that starting in February government would use each company’s highest level of production during their best single month from November 2017 to October 2018 as its baseline production level. This was a change from the original formula where the baseline would be established on a company’s highest six-month average over the same time period.

This change was made after listening to concerns from industry and advice from the Alberta Energy Regulator to better account for companies that were in the process of ramping up production as part of long-term investments in the province.

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Danielle Smith warns Trudeau gov’t she’s going ahead with natural gas projects despite regulations

Published on November 30, 2023

Todayville

From LifeSiteNews

By Anthony Murdoch

‘We’re not going to sit and wait while they break the law, drag their feet, make us take them to court, spend years creating economic uncertainty for our investors’

After Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault brushed off Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s invocation of the “Sovereignty Act” as being merely “symbolic,” the Alberta leader warned him that her province will be building new gas-fired power plants regardless of his new “clean energy” rules.

“Well, he [Guilbeault] will learn that if he does not back down from his outrageous and unconstitutional targets of 2035, it’ll be more than symbolic,” said Smith Tuesday after being asked by a reporter about Guilbeault’s comments.

“We’ll proceed with developing our baseload power on natural gas with the best available technology.”

Smith said that the use of the Sovereignty Act, which was invoked on Monday for the purpose of shielding Alberta from future power blackouts due to federal government overreach, will help the province “make sure that we are able to shield any corporation from any kind of criminal liability.”

“Whether that means that we have to de-risk it by being the generator of last resort or we have to purchase some of those plants so that we operate them ourselves, so that we’re able to continue on with having a reliable power grid,” she said.

The Sovereignty Act resolution calls on Alberta’s cabinet to “order all provincial entities not to recognize the constitutional validity of, enforce, nor cooperate in the implementation of the CERs [Clean Electricity Regulations] in any manner, to the extent legally permissible.”

Guilbeault on Monday came out with a statement concerning Alberta’s invocation of the Sovereignty Act, claiming that its use will “create fear and uncertainty over collaboration and positive results for Albertans.”

He also later claimed while speaking to reporters that Smith’s action using the Sovereignty Act is just “symbolic.”

Unlike most provinces in Canada, Alberta’s electricity industry is nearly fully deregulated. However, the government still has the ability to take control of it at a moment’s notice.

A draft version of the federal government’s CERs introduced by Guilbeault projects billions in higher costs associated with a so-called “green” power transition, especially in the resource-rich provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia, which use natural gas and coal to fuel power plants.

Business executives in Alberta’s energy sector have also sounded the alarm over the Trudeau government’s “green” transition, saying it could lead to unreliability in the power grid.

‘We’re not going to sit and wait while they break the law’

While speaking to reporters Tuesday, Smith noted how Alberta will proceed with ensuring its power grid is stable and secure, and that the province will not “sit and wait” around for the Trudeau government to continue breaking “the law.”

“So, there’s this is just the indication that we’re moving on this. We’re not going to sit and wait while they break the law, drag their feet, make us take them to court, spend years creating economic uncertainty for our investors,” said Smith.

“We’re going to start commissioning those plants now because we need them now.”

The Smith government said that while it does not like the route of taking back power production under state control, it says this is the only way the province can keep the current Liberal government, or any other future government, from interfering in provincial power production.

Two recent court rulings dealt a serious blow to the Trudeau government’s environmental activism via legislation. The most recent was when the Federal Court of Canada on November 16, 2023, overturned the Trudeau government’s ban on single-use plastic, calling it “unreasonable and unconstitutional.”

The Federal Court ruled in favor of the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan by stating that Trudeau’s government had overstepped its authority by classifying plastic as “toxic” as well as banning all single-use plastic items, like straws, bags, and eating utensils.

The second victory for Alberta and Saskatchewan concerns a Supreme Court ruling that stated that Trudeau’s law, C-69, dubbed the “no-more pipelines” bill, is “mostly unconstitutional.” The decision returned authority over the pipelines to provincial governments, meaning oil and gas projects headed up by the provinces should be allowed to proceed without federal intrusion.

The Sovereignty Act resolution calls on Alberta’s cabinet to “order all provincial entities not to recognize the constitutional validity of, enforce, nor cooperate in the implementation of the CERs in any manner, to the extent legally permissible.”

It also orders that the province investigate the “feasibility of establishing a provincial Crown corporation for the purpose of bringing and maintaining more reliable and affordable electricity onto the grid in the event that private generators find it too risky to do so under the CERs.”

The Trudeau government’s current environmental goals – in lockstep with the United Nations’ “2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” – include phasing out coal-fired power plants, reducing fertilizer usage, and curbing natural gas use over the coming decades.

The reduction and eventual elimination of the use of so-called “fossil fuels” and a transition to unreliable “green” energy has also been pushed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) – the globalist group behind the socialist “Great Reset” agenda – an organization in which Trudeau and some of his cabinet are involved.

Alberta

Alberta’s projected surplus balloons: Mid-year budget update

Published on November 30, 2023

Government of Alberta

Mid-year update: Keeping Alberta’s finances on track

Alberta’s government continues to manage the province’s finances responsibly with the future in mind.

Alberta continues to lead the nation in economic growth and is forecasting a surplus of $5.5 billion in 2023-24, an increase of $3.2 billion from Budget 2023. The province’s fiscal outlook continued to improve in the second quarter of 2023-24, boosted by strong bitumen royalties and higher income tax revenues.

However, volatile oil prices, continued inflation challenges and uncertainty due to slowing global growth could still affect the province’s finances going forward. Debt servicing costs will be higher than previous years due to higher interest rates, reinforcing the importance of the government’s commitment to balance the budget.

“Alberta continues to stand out as a leader when it comes to fiscal stability and economic resilience in the midst of so much global uncertainty. Our second-quarter fiscal update is another positive report, showing strength in Alberta’s finances and economy and positioning us for future growth and prosperity.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

The government continues to spend responsibly, maintaining its commitment to keep funds in the province’s contingency for disasters and emergencies. The government’s new fiscal framework requires the government to use at least half of available surplus cash to pay down debt, freeing up money that can support the needs of Albertans for generations. The government continues to reduce the province’s debt burden and will pay down a forecasted $3.2 billion in debt this fiscal year.

Alberta’s government is turning its focus to developing next year’s budget, so it supports Albertans’ needs and the province’s economic growth while maintaining the government’s commitment to responsible spending within the fiscal framework. Budget 2024 consultations are open and Albertans are encouraged to share their feedback to help set the province’s financial priorities.

Revenue

Revenue for 2023-24 is forecast at $74.3 billion, a $3.7-billion increase from Budget 2023. The increase is due to increases across different revenue streams. In addition, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is forecast to average US$79 per barrel over the course of the fiscal year, in line with the Budget 2023 forecast.
- Personal and corporate income tax revenue is forecast at $21.8 billion, $1.8 billion higher than at budget.
- Bitumen royalties are forecast at $14.4 billion, an increase of $1.8 billion from budget.
- Overall resource revenue is forecast at $19.7 billion, $1.3 billion higher than the budget forecast.
Beginning in 2024, Alberta’s government will continue to offer fuel tax relief when oil prices are high, even as the province transitions back to the original fuel tax relief program, which is based on average quarterly oil prices.
- Albertans will save some or all of the provincial fuel tax on gasoline and diesel when oil prices are $80 per barrel or higher during each quarter’s review period.
- Although oil prices have been below $80 in recent weeks, Albertans will continue to save at least four cents per litre on the provincial fuel tax in the first three months of 2024 as the tax is phased back in.
- The government’s fuel tax relief efforts, which include the pause to the end of 2023 and additional savings over the first three months of 2024, are forecast to reduce other tax revenue by $524 million in 2023-24.

Expense

Expense for 2023-24 is forecast at $68.8 billion, a $481-million increase from Budget 2023.
Capital grants are up marginally from Budget 2023, but down from the first-quarter forecast, mainly due to funding schedules for Calgary and Edmonton LRT projects.
Debt servicing costs are forecast to increase $309 million from budget, a reflection of ongoing high interest rates and inflation.
Total expense has increased by $1.9 billion, $0.5 billion is directly offset by revenue and $1.4 billion is absorbed by the $1.5-billion contingency.
In total, $123 million of the 2023-24 contingency remains unallocated.
$1.2 billion in disaster and emergency costs are forecast for the current fiscal year.
- $750 million for fighting wildfires in the province
- $165 million for AgriRecovery to support livestock producers affected by dry conditions
- $253 million to provide financial assistance to communities for uninsurable damage from spring wildfires and summer flooding
- $61 million for evacuation and other support
The operating expense forecast has increased by $319 million, including an additional:
- $301 million for Health
- $48 million for Advanced Education
- $48 million for Energy and Minerals
- $33 million for Mental Health and Addiction
- $30 million for Education
- $14 million for Indigenous Relations
- Offset by decreases of $187 million for lower-than-expected program take-up of affordability payments and re-profiling of TIER spending to 2024-25.

Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund

The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund’s market value on Sept. 30, 2023, was $21.4 billion, up from the $21.2 billion reported at March 31, 2023.
- The Heritage Fund returned 0.9 per cent over the first six months of 2023-24.
- Over the five-year period ending on Sept. 30, 2023, the Heritage Fund returned 5.9 per cent, which is 0.5 per cent above the return of its passive benchmark. While the Heritage Fund is outperforming its benchmark return, it is below the long-term real return target of 6.9 per cent, again a result of interest pressures.
- The Heritage Fund generated net investment income of $1 billion in the first half of the fiscal year.

Economic outlook

Alberta’s economy continues to be resilient, with continued growth projected over the three-year forecast.
Alberta’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 2.8 per cent in 2023, in line with the Budget 2023 forecast.
Despite interest rate increases, high prices and slower global economic growth, Alberta’s economy is forecast to keep expanding. The pace of growth, however, will be slower compared with the last two years when the province was recovering from the pandemic.

Alberta Fund

The amount of surplus cash available for debt repayment and the Alberta Fund is determined after a number of required cash adjustments have been made. For 2023-24, this includes $5.1 billion from the 2022-23 final results to start the year.

The Alberta Fund contribution for 2023-24 is forecast at $1.6 billion.
Money in the Alberta Fund can be used toward additional debt repayment, the Heritage Savings Trust Fund, or one-time initiatives that do not permanently increase government spending.