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Oil tankers in Vancouver are loading plenty, but they can load even more

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From Resource Works

Despite years of protest, ballooning costs, and political hurdles, the federally funded TMX pipeline expansion has become a strategic economic success story for Canada.

The federally funded expansion of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline from Alberta to tidewater at Burnaby has been much attacked by critics, but has quickly turned into a gold-star success story.

The 980-km expansion, known as TMX, opened in May 2024, almost tripling the capacity of the original (1953) Trans Mountain Pipeline. Since then, TMX has enabled major expansion of our crude oil exports to American and Asian buyers.

It is, says Trans Mountain CEO Mark Maki, ā€œone of the most strategic investments Canada has ever made,ā€ providing Canada with new trading options to Pacific Rim nations in the face of Donald Trump’s tariffs, and bringing in billions in new revenues.

Since opening on May 1, 2024, Trans Mountain has sent half of its tanker shipments to countries other than the US, and half to refineries on the US west coast.

Alberta Central chief economist Charles St-Arnaud said in a report earlier this year that TMX had brought in an extra $10 billion in revenues in 2024, equivalent to ā€œadding a thirteenth month of production to the year.ā€

The export picture would be even brighter if the Port of Vancouver could accommodate larger loads in departing oil tankers, and that now is being addressed by both federal and provincial governments.

Right now, 245-metre-long Aframax-size tankers can handle up to 120,000 tonnes of oil. But under our port restrictions and limited depths of water in Burrard Inlet, they usually load only up to 96,000 tonnes.

In the BC legislature, Gavin Dew, Conservative MLA for Kelowna-Mission and the Opposition critic for jobs, economic development and innovation, asked if BC and the new federal government are indeed supporting dredging Burrard Inlet to allow fully laden Aframax oil tankers.

The simple reply from Adrian Dix, BC’s minister of energy and climate solutions: ā€œYes.ā€

Dix added later in an interview that the idea most recently came from Prime Minister Mark Carney. ā€œBroadly, the premier and us have indicated our support for it,ā€ Dix said.

No plan or timing has yet been announced.

While fully loaded Aframax tankers would carry more oil, they still have to meet requirements that include these: All tankers calling at the Westridge Marine Terminal must first be pre-screened by Trans Mountain to ensure criteria are met for safety and reliability; They must be double-hulled, and have segregated internal cargo tanks; They must have two radar systems in working order, one of them being a specialized collision-avoidance radar. For loading, a containment boom is deployed to enclose the tanker and its berth while loading. The tankers are escorted by tugs, and carry a fully qualified and licensed marine pilot.

There are also upgraded emergency facilities to cope with any spill, but Trans Mountain notes that there has not been a single oil spill from one of its tankers since the original pipeline opened in 1956.

The terminal now can handle some 34 tankers a month.

While a success story now, the TMX expansion went through a lot of pain, protest, obstruction, money, and red tape to get there.

The expansion was first proposed in 2012 by the Canadian division of US pipeline giant Kinder Morgan Inc., which bought the original Trans Mountain pipeline in 2005. It applied in December 2013 for federal approval of expansion, and estimated the cost at $5.4 billion.

The expansion proposal then ran into endless protests, opposition from the BC government (then-premier John Horgan promised to use ā€œevery tool in the toolboxā€ to stop the expansion), and a federal approval process that took almost three years of red tape.

Ottawa’s approval finally came with 157 conditions, and BC’s ā€œtoolboxā€ now included restrictions on any increase in diluted bitumen shipments pending further studies.

By 2018, Kinder Morgan Canada said estimated costs had risen to $7.4 billion, and the company began to send up distress signals.

Ottawa then bought TMX from Kinder Morgan for $4.5 billion, calling the purchase ā€œa serious and necessary investment made in the national interest.ā€

The feds added: ā€œThe completion of this important infrastructure project is making Canada and the Canadian economy more resilient by diversifying global market access for our resources.ā€

Construction began in the Edmonton area in November 2019. By 2020, though, Trans Mountain said the cost of the expansion had risen to $12.6 billion, and in 2022 the cost was estimated at $21.4 billion, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic among the reasons. In March 2023, Trans Mountain put the cost at $30.9 billion.

Some of the benefits listed by Ottawa: Opening new markets for Canadian energy exports, reducing our reliance on a single customer, and ensuring that Canada receives fair market value for its resources while maintaining the highest environmental standards; Significantly increasing the royalties and tax revenues that all levels of government receive: According to an independent study, TMX is expected to add $9.2 billion in GDP and $2.8 billion in tax revenues between 2024 and 2043; Contributing to global and regional energy security by providing a secure, long-term supply of energy; Creating economic benefits for many Indigenous groups through contracting, financial compensation, and employment and training opportunities.

But Ottawa has said all along that it would not own the pipeline forever, and that at some point it will divest itself of ownership, and make at least partial ownership available to Indigenous groups.

Trans Mountain CEO Mark Maki now wonders if the feds might postpone that divestment, particularly if they decide TMX shouldn’t be the last oil export pipeline built in Canada.

We await word from the new federal government on its plans.

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Daily Caller

Shale Gas And Nuclear Set To Power The US Into The Future

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From theĀ Daily Caller News Foundation

ByĀ David Blackmon

Shale natural gas played the lion’s share of the role in lowering U.S. emissionsĀ to levels not seen since the early 1990s by enabling power generation companies to displace coal-fired power plants with combined cycle gas plants. This led to a situation during the first Donald Trump presidency in which the U.S. was the only western country which had met its commitments under the Paris Climate Accords, even though President Trump had ended America’s participation in that compact.

While countries like Canada, the UK, Australia, and those in the European Union continue their obsession with intermittent power sources like wind and solar, the United States has been blessed with one powerful alternative for cutting emissions and is set to go full speed in pursuit of another in the coming days.

That first alternative is natural gas produced from the major U.S. shale plays. As theĀ Statistical Review of World EnergyĀ reported last year,Ā no energy sourceĀ in world history has ever been scaled up as rapidly as the domestic US industry has achieved with shale gas.

Shale has grown faster than wind, faster than solar, and faster than even Indonesian coal. Faster than anything before it in recorded history. This rapid scaling, combined with the immensity of the recoverable resource itself has facilitated massive reductions in carbon emissions not just at home, but also abroad.

At home, shale natural gas played the lion’s share of the role inĀ lowering U.S. emissionsĀ to levels not seen since the early 1990s by enabling power generation companies to displace coal-fired power plants with combined cycle gas plants. This led to a situation during the first Donald Trump presidency in which the U.S. was the only western country which had met its commitments under the Paris Climate Accords, even though President Trump had ended America’s participation in that compact.

Internationally, the rapid expansion of the U.S. liquefied natural gas export industry is now helping enable importing countries across the globe to meet their own commitments. The immensity of the American resource ensures such results can continue to be achieved for decades to come.

The second power source related to which America is poised for explosive growth is a long-existing one that has been woefully underutilized for decades now: Nuclear. TheĀ Deseret News reportsĀ that the White House is preparing a set of four executive orders for the President’s signature in the coming days designed to jump start American dominance in this crucial energy sector.

ā€œWe are trying to knock things over that we can that are regulatory,ā€ Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the House Appropriations Committee in aĀ May 7 hearingĀ and reported by Energy Intelligence. ā€œThere will be catalyzing regulatory events to bringā€ in ā€œtens of billions of dollarsā€ in private capital, ā€œmostly from hyperscalers.ā€

Respected energy analyst and writer Robert Bryce was able to obtain a draft of one of the orders this week. Writing in hisĀ Substack newsletter, Bryce says the draft order ā€œbegins by pointing out that the US is losing the race to deploy new reactors and that China has announced plans to: ā€˜Bring 200 new gigawatts of nuclear power online by 2035, at which point its total nuclear output will more than double that of the United States. Further, as American development of new reactor designs has waned, 87% of nuclear reactors installed worldwide since 2017 are based on Russian and Chinese designs. These trends cannot continue. Swift and decisive action is required to jump-start America’s nuclear renaissance and ensure our national and economic security by increasing fuel availability, enabling research and development, and preparing our workforce.ā€

Obviously, jump-starting a fairly moribund industry is a stretch goal for the Trump administration, especially considering that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has permitted just 5 new nuclear plants since 1978, only two of which were ultimately built and placed into service. But the reality facing the U.S. and the rest of the international community is that, if getting to net zero by any year in the future is truly an imperative, there is little other choice but to focus on a rapid, massive nuclear expansion. Intermittent, weather-dependent generation simply cannot get that job done.

Fortunately, it’s a reality that Trump and key advisors like Sec. Wright fully grasp. In aĀ keynote speechĀ delivered in Poland last month, Wright said, ā€œThe two biggest ā€˜climate solutions’ in the coming decades are the same as they were in the last two decades, natural gas and nuclear, for the simple reason that they work.ā€

He isn’t wrong, and the Trump administration is focused on ensuring the U.S. maximizes the benefits from both of these key energy engines both at home and abroad.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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Alberta

SERIOUS AND RECKLESS IMPLICATIONS: An Obscure Bill Could Present Material Challenge for Canada’s Oil and Gas Sector

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From Energy Now

By Tammy Nemeth and Ron Wallace

Bill S-243 seeks toĀ ā€œreshape the logic of capital marketsā€Ā by mandating that allĀ federally regulatedĀ financial institutions, banks, pension funds, insurance companies and federal financial Crown Corporations align their investment portfolios with Canada’s climate commitments

Senator Rosa Galvez’s recent op-ed in theĀ National ObserverĀ champions the reintroduction of her Climate-Aligned Finance Act (Bill S-243) as a cornerstone for anĀ ā€œorderly transitionā€Ā to achieving a low-carbon Canadian economy. With Prime Minister Mark Carney—a global figure in sustainable finance—at the helm, Senator Galvez believes Canada has a ā€œgolden opportunityā€ to lead on climate-aligned finance. However, a closer examination of Bill S-243 reveals a troubling agenda that potentially risks not only crippling Canada’s oil and gas sector and undermining economic stability, but one that could impose unhelpful, discriminatory measures. As Carney pledges toĀ transformĀ Canada’s economy, this legislation would also erode the principles of fairness in our economic and financial system.

Introduced in 2022, Bill S-243 seeks toĀ ā€œreshape the logic of capital marketsā€Ā by mandating that allĀ federally regulatedĀ financial institutions, banks, pension funds, insurance companies and federal financial Crown Corporations align their investment portfolios with Canada’s climate commitments, particularly with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Ā The Bill’s provisions areĀ sweeping and punitive, targeting emissions-intensive sectors like oil and gas with what could only be described as an unprecedented regulatory overreach. It requires institutions toĀ avoid financingĀ ā€œnew fossil fuel supply infrastructureā€ and to plan for aĀ ā€œfossil-free future,ā€Ā effectively discouraging investment in Canada’s energy sector. To that end, it imposesĀ capital-risk weightsĀ of 1,250% on debt for new fossil fuel projects and 150% or more for existing ones, making such financing prohibitively expensive. These measures, as confirmed by theĀ Canadian Bankers’ AssociationĀ andĀ the Office of the Superintendent of Financial InstitutionsĀ in 2023 Senate testimony, would have the effect of forcing Canadian financial institutions to exit oil and gas financing altogether. It also enshrinesĀ into lawĀ that entities put climate commitments ahead of fiduciary duty:

ā€œThe persons for whom a duty is established under subsection (1) [alignment with climate commitments] must give precedence to that duty over all other duties and obligations of office, and, for that purpose, ensuring the entity is in alignment with climate commitments is deemed to be a superseding matter of public interest.ā€

While the applicability of the term used in the legislation that defines a ā€œreporting entityā€ may be a subject of some debate, the legislation would nonetheless direct financial institutions to put ā€œclimate over peopleā€.

 

There are significant implications here for the Canadian oil and gas sector. This backbone of the economy employs thousands and generatesĀ billionsĀ in revenue. Yet, under Bill S-243, financial institutions would effectively be directed to divest from those companies if not the entire sector. How can Canada become an ā€œenergy superpowerā€ if its financial system is directed to effectively abandon the conventional energy sector?

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Beyond economics, Bill S-243 raises profound ethical concerns, particularly with its boardroom provisions. At least one board member of every federally regulated financial institution must have ā€œclimate expertiseā€;Ā excludedĀ from serving as a director would be anyone who has worked for, lobbied or held shares in a fossil fuel company unless their position in the fossil fuel company was to help it align with climate commitments defined in part as ā€œplanning for a fossil fuel–free future.ā€ How isĀ ā€œclimate expertiseā€Ā defined? The proposed legislation says it ā€œmeans a person with demonstrable experience in proposing or implementing climate actionsā€ or, among other characteristics, any person ā€œwho hasĀ acute lived experienceĀ related to the physical or economic damages of climate change.ā€ Bill S-243’s ideological exclusion of oil and gas-affiliated individuals from the boards of financial institutions would set a dangerous precedent that risks normalizing discrimination under the guise of environmental progress to diminish executive expertise, individual rights and the interests of shareholders.

Mark Carney’s leadership adds complexity to this debate. As the founder of theĀ Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, Carney has long advocated for climate risk integration in finance, despite growing corporateĀ withdrawalĀ from the initiative. Indeed, when called toĀ testifyĀ on Bill S-243 in May 2024, CarneyĀ praisedĀ Senator Galvez’s initiative and generallyĀ supportedĀ the billĀ stating: ā€œCertain aspects of the proposed law are definitely achievable and actually essential.ā€ Ā If Carney’s Liberal government embraces Bill S-243, or something similar, it would send a major negative signal to the Canadian energy sector, especially at a time of strained Federal-Provincial relations and as the Trump Administration pivots away from climate-related regulation.

Canada’s economy and energy future faces a pivotal moment. Ā Bill S-243 is punitive, discriminatory and economically reckless while threatening the economic resilience that the Prime Minister claims to champion. A more balanced strategy, one that supports innovation without effectively dismantling the financial underpinnings of a vital industry, is essential. What remains to be seen is will this federal government prioritize economic stability and regulatory fairness over ideological climate zeal?


Tammy Nemeth is a U.K.-based energy analyst. Ron Wallace is a Calgary-based energy analyst and former Permanent Member of the National Energy Board.

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