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Alberta

Indigenous leaders see progress in 2023 but continue to advocate for national loan guarantee program

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Wolf Midstream and its partners in the Northern Lakeland Indigenous Alliance participate in a signing ceremony celebrating a $103 million loan guarantee from the AIOC to obtain a 43% stake in the Access NGL Pipeline System. Photo courtesy AIOC

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Shawn Logan

“Things are starting to work but self-determination is the ultimate goal.”

When John Desjarlais reflects on 2023, he admits he had feared a growing national tide of Indigenous investment in key energy projects was due to hit a speedbump.

Instead, as a new year approaches, the executive director of the Indigenous Resource Network (IRN) says any doubts have been replaced by optimism that the positive momentum of the last few years will flow into 2024.

“I’m feeling more optimistic now. I’m pleased to see the level of conversation being had with Indigenous leaders,” he said.

“I think there is growing opportunity for Indigenous participation across entire value chains, for board and executive positions, and more meaningful involvement. I think we’re really going to see the needle move in 2024.”

John Desjarlais, executive director of the Indigenous Resource Network in Bragg Creek, Alta. Photo by Dave Chidley for the Canadian Energy Centre

Despite the year’s slow start, Desjarlais said 2023 became something of a bellwether for how the rest of the world views the involvement of First Nations and Métis in Canada’s oil and gas industry.

In April, Desjarlais joined a delegation of Indigenous leaders in Ottawa to meet face-to-face with diplomats from some of the world’s strongest economies. Joined by Haisla Nation Chief Councillor Crystal Smith, First Nations LNG Alliance CEO Karen Ogen and former Enoch Cree First Nation chief Billy Morin, the delegation quickly learned not only was there an appetite for Canadian energy, but for Indigenous knowledge and participation on the critical file.

“Every official had a real desire to really understand Indigenous sentiment around resource development. There was a sincere desire to learn from our perspective,” Desjarlais told the CEC following the meetings with representatives from G7 allies Germany, France, Japan and the United States, as well as Poland and India.

However, while potential international energy partners are intrigued by the potential of relationships with Indigenous energy suppliers, a significant hurdle remains – the need for a national loan guarantee program that would empower more Indigenous ownership in community-transforming projects, particularly oil and gas.

Dale Swampy, president of the National Coalition of Chiefs, is a veteran in the fight for First Nations and Métis to fully benefit from critical resources to directly benefit communities. And he is hopeful there is growing recognition in Ottawa that enabling self-determination is an effective and enduring pathway to prosperity.

“The only way to defeat on-reserve poverty is to create ways to employ people,” he said.

“And the only industry that gives us this opportunity is the natural resources industry.”

Alberta has been a leader in helping open doors to indigenous ownership of major resource projects, launching the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) in 2019. As the year came to a close, the AIOC announced two more major deals, which will see the total investment backed by the fund to date reach more than $680 million, directly impacting 42 Indigenous groups.

Dale Swampy President National Coalition of Chiefs. Canadian Energy Centre photo

In what marks the second-largest loan guarantee backed by the provincial corporation, 12 Indigenous communities will invest $150 million to obtain 85 per cent ownership in oil and gas midstream infrastructure in the Marten Hills and Nipisi areas of the Clearwater play in Northern Alberta.

While the ink was still drying, two days later another deal saw five First Nations in northwestern Alberta enter into a $20.5 million partnership with NuVista Energy Ltd. for majority ownership of an emissions-reducing cogeneration unit at the Wembley gas plant in the County of Grande Prairie.

The AIOC’s success saw the Alberta government increase its loan guarantee capacity to $2 billion this year, and it’s set to increase it further to $3 billion for the 2024-2025 fiscal year.

Desjarlais’ IRN spent most of 2023 advocating for a federal version of the AIOC, to emulate its success at the national level.

Chief Greg Desjarlais of Frog Lake First Nation signs a historic agreement between Enbridge and 23 First Nation and Métis communities in September 2022. The communities acquired, collectively, an 11.57% non-operating interest in seven Enbridge-operated pipelines in the Athabasca region of northern Alberta for $1.12 billion on September 22, 2022. Photo courtesy Enbridge

In its fall financial update, the federal government announced it would unveil a new Indigenous loan guarantee program when it sets its 2024 budget this spring. But there has been no commitment to include oil and gas projects as part of the program.

Desjarlais said the fact a program has been promised is a good first step – now Indigenous leaders need to convince the federal government that imposing restrictions will only impede economic reconciliation.

“It looks like there is a program coming but we have to take a look at the exclusions,” he said.

“What we really want to see is less paternalism. Things are starting to work but self-determination is the ultimate goal.”

Desjarlais said the last few years have seen significant progress when it comes to Indigenous involvement in resource projects.

On the west coast, Indigenous-owned Cedar LNG and Ksi Lisims LNG will be at the vanguard of Canada’s first significant foray into exporting the in-demand fuel for customers in Asia. While several Indigenous communities across western Canada are investing in critical infrastructure like pipelines and carbon capture and storage projects.

For Swampy, that progress is long overdue. And it’s becoming increasingly clear that Indigenous communities no longer want to be reliant on government supports – they want to take control of their own destinies.

“They want to take part in the prosperity that comes with oil and gas, and they want to own it,” he said.

“All we ask is that we be involved when it comes to the question about land and resources. We don’t want to just be part of these consultations, we want to lead projects.”

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Alberta

Alberta’s massive oil and gas reserves keep growing – here’s why

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From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Deborah Jaremko

Q&A with Mike Verney, executive vice-president, McDaniel & Associates

New analysis commissioned by the Alberta Energy Regulator has increased the province’s natural gas reserves by 440 per cent, bumping Canada into the global top 10.

Alberta’s oil reserves – already fourth in the world – also increased by seven billion barrels.

The report was conducted by Calgary-based consultancy McDaniel & Associates. Executive vice-president Mike Verney explains what it means.

CEC: What are “reserves” and why do they matter?

Verney: ​​Reserves are commercial quantities of oil and gas to be recovered in the future. They are key indicators of future production potential.

For companies, that’s a way of representing the future value of their operations. And for countries, it’s important to showcase the runway they have in terms of the future of their oil and gas.

Some countries that have exploited a lot of their resource in the past have low reserves remaining. Canada is in a position where we still have a lot of meat on the bone in terms of those remaining quantities.

CEC: How long has it been since Alberta’s oil and gas reserves were comprehensively assessed?

Verney: Our understanding is the last fully comprehensive review was over a decade ago.

CEC: Does improvement in technology and innovation increase reserves?

Verney: Technological advancements and innovation play a crucial role in increasing reserves. New technologies such as advanced drilling techniques (e.g., hydraulic fracturing, horizontal drilling), enhanced seismic imaging and improved extraction methods enable companies to discover and access previously inaccessible reserves.

As these reserves get developed, the evolution of technology helps companies develop them better and better every year.

CEC: Why have Alberta’s natural gas reserves increased?

Verney: Most importantly, hydraulic fracturing has unlocked material volume, and that’s one of the principal reasons why the new gas estimate is so much higher than what it was in the past.

The performance of the wells that are being drilled has also gotten better since the last comprehensive study.

The Montney competes with every American tight oil and gas play, so we’re recognizing the future potential of that with the gas reserves that are being assigned.

In addition, operators continue to expand the footprint of the Alberta Deep Basin.

CEC: Why have Alberta’s oil reserves increased?

Verney: We discovered over two billion barrels of oil reserves associated with multilateral wells, which is a new technology. In a multilateral well, you drill one vertical well to get to the zone and then once you hit the zone you drill multiple legs off of that one vertical spot. It has been a very positive game-changer.

Performance in the oil sands since the last comprehensive update has also gone better than expected. We’ve got 22 thermal oil sands projects that are operating, and in general, expectations in terms of recovery are higher than they were a decade ago.

Oil sands production has grown substantially in the past decade, up 70 per cent, from two million to 3.4 million barrels per day. The growth of several projects has increased confidence in the commercial viability of developing additional lands.

CEC: What are the implications of Alberta’s reserves in terms of the province’s position as a world energy supplier?

Verney: We’re seeing LNG take off in the United States, and we’re seeing lots of demand from data centers. Our estimate is that North America will need at least 30 billion cubic feet per day of more gas supply in the next few years, based on everything that’s been announced. That is a very material number, considering the United States’ total natural gas production is a little over 100 billion cubic feet per day.

In terms of oil, since the shale revolution in 2008 there’s been massive growth from North America, and the rest of the world hasn’t grown oil production. We’re now seeing that the tight plays in the U.S. aren’t infinite and are showing signs of plateauing.

Specifically, when we look at the United States’ largest oil play, the Permian, it has essentially been flat at 5.5 million barrels per day since December 2023. Flat production from the Permian is contrary to the previous decade, where we saw tight oil production grow by half a million barrels per day per year.

Oil demand has gone up by about a million barrels a day per year for the past several decades, and at this point we do expect that to continue, at the very least in the near term.

Given the growing demand for oil and the stagnation in supply growth since the shale revolution, it’s expected that Alberta’s oil sands reserves will become increasingly critical. As global oil demand continues to rise, and with limited growth in production from other sources, oil sands reserves will be relied upon more heavily.

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Alberta

Federal emissions plan will cost Albertans dearly

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A new report finds every Albertan will have $3,300 less for essentials if the ineffective federal emissions reduction plan is left in place.

For years, the federal government has been targeting net zero by 2050 and putting in place an aggressive approach to reduce emissions as outlined in its Emissions Reduction Plan. This scheme, which included the carbon tax, emissions cap, electricity regulations and other initiatives, has drawn strong criticism from provinces, industry, business groups and Canadians.

A report by the Conference Board of Canada, commissioned by Alberta’s government, sheds new light on the negative impacts of the federal government’s punitive environmental approach. By 2050, Alberta’s GDP will shrink by 11 per cent, employment will decline by four per cent and the average person will have $3,300 less in disposable income – while Canada still misses its emissions target.

Alberta’s government is calling on the next federal government to permanently abandon the carbon tax, emissions cap and the entire flawed federal approach. Instead, the federal government should focus on reducing emissions without hurting the economy or making life harder for Albertan and Canadian families.

“These findings should send a message to whoever ends up being the next federal government. Our province remains firmly committed to protecting the environment and creating a future for our children, but that can’t be achieved by trampling on Canadians’ livelihoods. Ottawa has offered nothing but penalties and vague rhetoric. Instead of meaningful incentives to reduce emissions, we get carbon taxes, a production cap, and layers and layers of costly regulations, all burdening families and workers who are already stretched thin.”

Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas

The Conference Board of Canada assessed how Alberta businesses and consumers will react to the federal policies based on the costs and effectiveness of the technologies necessary to meet the federal targets.

It found that Alberta will be disproportionately impacted by the current federal plan, experiencing a deep recession in 2030 and subsequently slower economic growth going forward. According to the report, compared to the 2050 baseline scenario, Alberta’s GDP, jobs, revenue and incomes will significantly decline because of federal emissions policies:

  • GDP: Projected to be 11 per cent lower
  • Employment: Projected to be 4.1 per cent lower
  • Government revenues: Projected to be 9.3 per cent lower
  • Real (price adjusted) incomes: Down $3,300 (or 7.3 per cent) per person

Nationally, real GDP in Canada is estimated to fall 3.8 per cent in 2050. Canadian oil and gas production in 2050 would be 37 per cent lower, mostly due to the proposed federal oil and gas production cap.

On March 12, the independent Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) – following on reports from S&P Global, Deloitte Canada and the Conference Board of Canada – released a scathing report outlining the negative impacts of the proposed federal oil and gas emissions cap. According to the report, the PBO estimates that the federal government’s cap alone will in fact slash oil and gas production by almost 5 per cent, all while these required production cuts reduce nominal GDP by $20.5 billion in 2032.

The PBO report also suggests this policy will reduce economy-wide employment in Canada by 40,300 jobs and full-time equivalents by 54,400 in 2032.

Alberta’s government continues to call for the next federal government to focus on policies that grow the economy, while working with provinces and respecting the Canadian constitution.

Quick facts:

  • The Conference Board of Canada scenarios assume oil and gas production grow to 9.7 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2050 with peak oil production of 9.9 million barrels per day in 2042, reflecting continued global oil demand.
  • Canada’s employment is estimated to be 2.6 per cent lower, consumer prices 2.5 per cent higher, and real GDP 3.8 per cent lower in 2050 under the federal plan (compared to the baseline scenario).
  • According to the report, Canada’s electricity sector would need to reduce emissions by 376 per cent below baseline in 2050, through significant investment in carbon capture and storage, to meet the federal net-zero commitment.
  • The Conference Board of Canada’s realistic scenario assumes carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be deployed at a slower rate than is generally assumed by the federal government.
  • Canada’s Emission Reduction Plan, released in March 2022, is a roadmap and its policies include the carbon tax, Clean Electricity Regulation, Clean Fuel Regulation, federal oil and gas emissions cap, methane reduction targets, zero emission vehicle mandates, and various other subsidy programs.
  • The Conference Board of Canada’s report on assessing the impact of the federal Emissions Reduction Plan was completed prior to U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and does not include the impacts of potential U.S. tariffs.
    • U.S. tariffs have further illustrated the importance of market access to Canada’s energy security.

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