Federal Election Response: One Albertan’s Thoughts

The wholly predictable results of yesterday’s election are tantamount to a deafening sucker punch to Alberta and the West – and things are not about to get better for us under this minority Liberal government, because Justin Trudeau is effectually tone deaf to our deep and growing alienation.

Or worse, perhaps he just doesn’t care. He says he will support Alberta, but he also said he would balance the federal budget by 2019 and told an Ontario town hall gathering two years ago that: “We can’t shut down the oilsands tomorrow. We need to phase them out.” So how supported do Albertans feel right now? Not very.

Bills C-48 and C-69 speak loudly his intentions with respect to Alberta and the West. The fact that his minority government will now have to rely on NDP or Bloc support in the House almost certainly means no social license for Alberta’s “dirty oil” going forward – notwithstanding we have the cleanest, most ethically produced, environmentally sensitive, human & employee rights protected oil and gas industry in the world.

It’s truly a sad day for Albertans and the West generally. As a proud, hard-working, industrious people, we must now rally together and send a clear message to the federal government and the rest of Canada that we will not concede to second-class citizen status any longer.

We cannot continue to generate net billions in transfer payments (even through the most painfully protracted recession in collective memory), while the main industry responsible for that wealth is under targeted attack on several fronts, and while provinces like Quebec (and Ontario between 2009 and 2018) continue to reap the benefits of collecting net billions: $11.7 and $13.1 billion transferred to Quebec in 2018 and 2019 fiscal years respectively – in a time of fiscal surplus for Quebec to the tune of 2.5 to 3 billion dollars.

Meanwhile in July 2017, the Fraser Institute reported that Alberta contributed 221.4 billion more in revenue than it received in federal transfer payments and grants between the years 2007 and 2015 – contributing more money to the federal purse than any other province in Canada. Last year alone, Alberta paid net 21.8 billion more in taxes to the federal government than we got back in grants – notwithstanding our economy is still mired in recession with shuttered businesses on every corner – and we’ve not received a federal transfer payment since 1965.

Premier Jason Kenney noted that “Since equalization was created [in 1957], Alberta has received 0.02% of all payments, the last of which was in 1964-1965. In contrast, Quebec has received equalization money every year of the program, totalling 221 billion dollars or 51 per cent of all payments.”

Part of the injustice of this program stems from the systemic inequity in how provincial revenue capacity is calculated under the federal equalization formula. Here’s a quick case study:

Between 2005 and 2010, Quebec received 42.5 billion in equalization payments. Had transfer payment rules treated Quebec’s hydro-electric revenue the same as they treat Alberta’s oil and gas revenue in the calculation of revenue capacity, those payments would have been reduced to 28.1 billion over that same period – meaning that Quebec was overpaid by 14.4 billion dollars (or 34 per cent) during that time, because the rules are designed to favour Quebec in the calculation of provincial revenue under the federal formula.

In the wake of yesterday’s federal election, it’s hard to see a path where Premier Kenney won’t be putting the question of equalization equity to Albertans by way of an upcoming referendum, since he promised that:

“If the federal government continues its attacks through the National Energy Board (NEB) and the federal carbon tax, then Alberta should take a common-sense approach and hold a referendum demanding the removal of non-renewable resource revenues from the equalization formula … [to] massively reduce Alberta’s contribution to equalization.”

Moreover, Section 88 of the Supreme Court’s decision in Reference re Secession of Quebec, [1998] 2 S.C.R. 217 seems to pave a clear path for the democratic will of any province to express itself, by referendum or otherwise, to the rest of the country by renegotiating the terms of its participation:

“The clear repudiation by the people of [Alberta] of the existing constitutional order would confer legitimacy on demands for [fiscal equity], and place an obligation on the other provinces and the federal government to acknowledge and respect that expression of democratic will by entering into negotiations and conducting them in accordance with the underlying constitutional principles already discussed.” [Edited from the original text: people of Quebec and demands for secession to reflect Alberta’s aspirations for equity].

Finally, no substantive review of this Albertan’s response to yesterday’s election would be complete without reference to the submission published in the National Post on January 24, 2001, headlined “An open letter to Ralph Klein” wherein we read:

“… We believe the time has come for Albertans to take greater charge of our own future. This means resuming control of the powers that we possess under the constitution of Canada but that we have allowed the federal government to exercise. Intelligent use of these powers will help Alberta build a prosperous future in spite of a misguided and increasingly hostile government in Ottawa. …

All of these steps can be taken using the constitutional powers that Alberta now possesses. In addition, we believe it is imperative for you to take all possible political and legal measures to reduce the financial drain on Alberta caused by Canada’s tax-and-transfer system. …

Starting to act now will secure the future for all Albertans. It is imperative to take the initiative, to build firewalls around Alberta, to limit the extent to which an aggressive and hostile federal government can encroach upon legitimate provincial jurisdiction. …

The precondition for the success of this Alberta Agenda is the exercise of all our legitimate provincial jurisdictions under the constitution of Canada.”

Elements of this Alberta Agenda identified in the now famous “Firewall” letter include:

Withdraw from Canada Pension Plan to create an Alberta Pension Plan.
Collect our own revenue from personal income tax.
Create our own Alberta Provincial Police Force.
Resume Provincial responsibility for health care policy.
Advocate for meaningful senate reform.
Reduce the drain on Alberta caused by transfer payments.

Whether by a Firewall, Wexit arrangement, or otherwise, Alberta and the West now need to circle the wagons, so to speak, and formulate a strategy that makes the rest of Canada stand up and take notice. And by take notice, I mean effect meaningful change to level the playing field of Confederation.

It’s been so shamefully, undemocratically, inexcusably unlevel for so long, that the West can no longer abide our current configuration in Canada. We can no longer stand to be second-class citizens of this great nation. Some iteration of change is inexorably forthcoming, because the West deserves – and must demand – justice.

Vesna Higham

Retired lawyer, current Red Deer City Councillor, happy wife and proud mother of five great kids.

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Federal Election Response: One Albertan’s Thoughts

Alberta

Bonnyville RCMP targeted by suspect driving a trackhoe – Update

Published on May 7, 2025

Todayville

From Bonnyville RCMP

On May 3, 2025, at approximately 6:55 p.m., a male suspect drove a stolen trackhoe into the parking lot of the Bonnyville RCMP detachment. Investigation has revealed that just prior to this occurring at the detachment, the suspect stole the trachoe from a local business. In the process of stealing the trackhoe, the suspect drove through a fence of the business, causing significant damage.

The suspect then headed to the detachment, picking up boulders along the way. He then dumped several boulders in front of the prisoner bay of the detachment, believed to be an attempt to delay officer’s ability to respond to calls. He then drove the trackhoe into 5 unoccupied parked police vehicles, making them inoperable. The suspect then fled from the detachment on foot.

Thanks to assistance from the RCMP RTOC (Real Time Operations Center), numerous resources were called in to assist, including St. Paul Police Dog Services (Chase), Cold Lake RPAS (drone), Eastern Alberta District General Investigation Section and Crime Reduction Unit and Elk Point Detachment. The real-time operations center is based out of K Division headquarters and is comprised of RCMP officers who are able to oversee and quarterback high risk incidents, such as this as they unfold. Their involvement in these types of incidents not only increase our chances of catching a fleeing suspect, but officer safety also increases. They are truly an invaluable resource.

Containment was set up and the search began for the suspect. A short time later, PDS Chase located the suspect hiding in a tree line just north west of the detachment. During his arrest, the suspect resisted and fought officers, and as a result, he was bitten by PDS Chase. Once in custody, he was taken to a local hospital to get treated for minor injuries and was released.

David Merko (62), a resident of Bonnyville, has been charged with 13 criminal code offences:

Dangerous driving
Mischief over $5000 (x6)
Break and enter
PSP over $5000
Theft over $5000
Obstruct/resist peace officer (x2)
Utter threats

The last charge of uttering threats was as a result of an April 17^th incident in which David Merko called OCC (dispatch) in Saskatchewan and uttered threats to kill RCMP officers.

After a Judicial Interim Release Hearing, Merko was remanded into custody for Alberta Court of Justice in Bonnyville on May 6, 2025.

Detachment Commander Staff Sgt. Sarah Parke states, “Incidents like this can be frightening for communities. In this instance, we believe there was no threat to the public and the RCMP was the target. Alberta RCMP officers from neighbouring detachments did not hesitate to assist to ensure the suspect was quickly taken into custody, as well as assisting with ensuring on-going police service in Bonnyville.

This incident has garnered a lot of attention on social media, and unfortunately, many of the comments are negative, some of which are threatening towards RCMP to the point of expressing disappointment that officers were not injured or killed during the incident. All RCMP officers come to work, day in and day out, to protect and serve their community. It is extremely disheartening to see these types of comments made.

Alberta RCMP have seen a steady increase in violence towards police in recent years. Most recent statistics indicate that on average, there are 2.3 incidents of violence occurring every day towards Alberta RCMP officers. In 2023, 70 Alberta officers were injured as a result of use of force incidents.

Thankfully, no one was injured during this incident.”

Alberta

Saudi oil pivot could shake global markets and hit Alberta hard

Published on May 6, 2025

Todayville

This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Rashid Husain Syed

Riyadh is walking away from its role as oil market stabilizer, signalling a return to market-share battles that threaten prices and Canadian revenues

After boosting crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May—triple the originally planned volume—OPEC+ shocked observers by intending to repeat the increase in June, despite slowing global demand and the dampening effects of U.S. trade tariffs.

The decision has ripple effects far beyond the Middle East. OPEC+—the alliance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia—collectively controls about 40 per cent of the world’s oil production. Its actions directly influence global oil prices, which in turn affect everything from gasoline prices across Canada to government revenues in resource-dependent provinces like Alberta.

Is OPEC+ sabotaging itself?

The move contradicts the group’s modus operandi of the past several years. Since 2016, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, has tried to balance global oil markets by curbing output. At its peak, the group cut production by more than five million barrels per day—about five per cent of global supply—with Saudi Arabia alone contributing two-fifths of that total.

This strategy was meant to stabilize prices and ensure petrostates such as Saudi Arabia could meet ballooning budget demands. Many OPEC members remain heavily reliant on oil revenues to fund government spending, with few alternative income streams.

But after years of shouldering the burden, Riyadh appears to have had enough. Reuters recently reported that Saudi officials have been quietly telling allies and industry experts the kingdom is no longer willing to continue absorbing the cost of propping up global prices through deeper cuts.

There is logic behind this frustration. Despite OPEC+ efforts, markets remain volatile. Crude has dropped about 19 per cent this year, briefly touching a four-year low, mainly due to fears that U.S. tariffs will reduce global energy demand.

Some of this instability can be traced to cheating within OPEC+. Several members, including Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia, have regularly exceeded their quotas, often at Saudi Arabia’s expense.

Riyadh’s patience appears to have run out. “OPEC’s decision framework appears to be fueled by persistent cheating,” noted TD Cowen strategists Dan Ghali and Bart Melek. The group warned in a note to clients that inventories could rise by 200 million barrels in the next three quarters, potentially pushing crude prices into the low US$50 range.

Saudi Arabia has no intention of sacrificing more market share to cover for others. This echoes an earlier episode when former Saudi oil minister Ali AlNaimi, frustrated by similar quota violations and the rise of U.S. shale producers, chose to flood the market to protect Saudi interests. In 2016, he famously told American drillers they could “lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate” as prices sank below US$50 per barrel.

The result was carnage in the oil patch—and a temporary ceasefire among producers.

History may be repeating itself. With other OPEC+ members again failing to meet targets, sources told Reuters that Riyadh is now shifting strategy. Rather than continuing to play the role of swing producer, Saudi Arabia may focus on regaining market share by boosting production, effectively stepping back from the group’s five-year effort to balance prices.

Despite its dependency on oil revenues, the kingdom appears ready to endure lower prices. Media reports quoting government sources suggest Saudi Arabia may increase borrowing and scale back spending to compensate. “The Saudis are ready for lower prices and may need to pull back on some major projects,” one insider told Reuters.

Saudi Arabia needs prices above US$90 per barrel to balance its budget—a higher threshold than other major producers such as the United Arab Emirates, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Theories abound about the motivations behind the kingdom’s apparent policy shift: retaliation against quota-busting allies, competition with emerging producers like the United States and Guyana, or even an attempt to please U.S. President Donald Trump, who has publicly called for higher OPEC output to ease gasoline prices.

Whatever the motivation, the consequences are real. The IMF has lowered its economic growth forecast for oil-exporting Middle East countries to 2.3 per cent from four per cent projected in October, citing lower prices and rising geopolitical uncertainty. It also revised Saudi Arabia’s growth outlook to three per cent from 3.3 per cent after oil prices fell 13 per cent in the past month alone. This has implications far beyond the Middle East, including for Canada. For Alberta, where oil sales remain a pillar of the economy, weakening global prices mean reduced royalties, tighter fiscal planning and less room for public investment.

As global oil markets enter another uncertain chapter, the aftershocks will be felt from Riyadh to Edmonton.

Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.