Connect with us

Economy

Trump Could Bring Back “America First”. What Could Happen to Canada’s Natural Resource Exports?

Published

1 year ago

5 minute read

From EnergyNow.ca

By Resource Works

A second Trump presidency likely means more tariffs, and Canada’s energy and forestry sectors will feel the impact.

As the passing of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney was reported, we thought back to his ratification of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States and Mexico.

The question now is: If Donald Trump becomes the next President of the U.S., what happens to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) of 2020? The USMCA came after Trump threatened to pull out of NAFTA in 2018.

On Monday, the Supreme Court of the United States recently overturned a ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court that barred Trump from appearing on the ballot during the 2024 presidential election, clearing a major obstacle in his goal of once again winning the presidency in November.

If Trump does win again in November, stand by for round two of the “America First” campaign of his first term.

“After decades of the status quo, President Trump has made it clear that Americans will no longer take back seat to the rest of the world,” said Ken Farnaso, who was a deputy national press secretary during Trump’s ultimately unsuccessful 2020 re-election campaign.

So prepare, for starters, for a 10 percent tariff on imports into the U.S. — and Canada is the second largest source of those imports.

Trump’s promised tariffs would hammer Canadian exports to the U.S. In 2021 (the latest figures we see), those exports were worth $355 billion, including oil ($78.8 billion), automobiles ($26.4 billion), and natural gas ($13.4 billion).

What would Trump do about increased exports of Canadian oil to the U.S. through the Trans Mountain Expansion Project? What about our natural-gas exports, which have helped the U.S. become the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG)?

And a Trump presidency would undoubtedly mean more trouble for Canada’s forestry sector. It has long been fighting “entirely unwarranted,”  U.S. tariffs on our softwood lumber — and now has been told that America will soon boost the border-crossing charges to 13.86 percent, up from 8.05 percent.

(Under the U.S. Tariff Act, the Department of Commerce determines whether goods are being sold at less than fair value or if they’re benefiting from subsidies provided by foreign governments. U.S. producers insist that provincial stumpage fees are so low as to amount to an unfair subsidy.)

And on foreign affairs, note Trump’s tough promise for China: tariffs of 60 percent or higher on imported Chinese goods.  And, he has added, “Maybe it’s going to be more than that.”

This comes after the trade war he triggered during his first term as president when he imposed $250 billion in China tariffs. That disrupted the global economy, hammered consumers, and hit stock markets.

U.S. stock-market watchers have shuddered at this new promise. Nikki Haley, who suspended her campaign for the Republican nomination on Wednesday morning, has said: “What Donald Trump’s about to do, is he’s going to raise every (American) household’s expenses by $2,600 a year.”

Trump has said nothing about current U.S.-Canada relations, but has in the past declared:

  • “We lose with Canada — big-league. Tremendous, tremendous trade deficits with Canada.”
  • “Canada has been very difficult to deal with. . . . They’re very spoiled.”

  • “Canada, what they’ve done to our dairy farm workers, it’s a disgrace.”

Roland Paris, a Canada-based associate fellow of the U.S. and the Americas Program writes:

“ Canada is not the only country bracing for Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House – but few have more at stake.”

“Three-quarters of Canada’s goods exports, accounting for more than one-quarter of the country’s gross domestic product, go to the U.S. Given Trump’s impulsiveness and deeply protectionist instincts, Canada’s business and political leaders are understandably nervous.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told business leaders in Montreal:  “It wasn’t easy the first time, and if there is a second time, it won’t be easy either.”

Indeed. If the second time begins with Trump being elected on November 5, and sworn in on January 20, 2025, it could be a nasty case of “Oh, Canada.”

Related Topics:

Todayville is a digital media and technology company. We profile unique stories and events in our community. Register and promote your community event for free.

Follow Author

More from this author
Alberta / 2 hours ago

Alberta judge sides with LGBT activists, allows ‘gender transitions’ for kids to continue

Alberta / 5 hours ago

Why the West’s separatists could be just as big a threat as Quebec’s

Business / 8 hours ago

Massive government child-care plan wreaking havoc across Ontario

Business

Canada Caves: Carney ditches digital services tax after criticism from Trump

Published on June 30, 2025

By

From The Center Square

By

Canada caved to President Donald Trump demands by pulling its digital services tax hours before it was to go into effect on Monday.

Trump said Friday that he was ending all trade talks with Canada over the digital services tax, which he called a direct attack on the U.S. and American tech firms. The DST required foreign and domestic businesses to pay taxes on some revenue earned from engaging with online users in Canada.

“Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately,” the president said. “We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period.”

By Sunday, Canada relented in an effort to resume trade talks with the U.S., it’s largest trading partner.

“To support those negotiations, the Minister of Finance and National Revenue, the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, announced today that Canada would rescind the Digital Services Tax (DST) in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States,” according to a statement from Canada’s Department of Finance.

Canada’s Department of Finance said that Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed to resume negotiations, aiming to reach a deal by July 21.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Monday that the digital services tax would hurt the U.S.

“Thank you Canada for removing your Digital Services Tax which was intended to stifle American innovation and would have been a deal breaker for any trade deal with America,” he wrote on X.

Earlier this month, the two nations seemed close to striking a deal.

Trump said he and Carney had different concepts for trade between the two neighboring countries during a meeting at the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, in the Canadian Rockies.

Asked what was holding up a trade deal between the two nations at that time, Trump said they had different concepts for what that would look like.

“It’s not so much holding up, I think we have different concepts, I have a tariff concept, Mark has a different concept, which is something that some people like, but we’re going to see if we can get to the bottom of it today.”

Shortly after taking office in January, Trump hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs for allowing fentanyl and migrants to cross their borders into the U.S. Trump later applied those 25% tariffs only to goods that fall outside the free-trade agreement between the three nations, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Trump put a 10% tariff on non-USMCA compliant potash and energy products. A 50% tariff on aluminum and steel imports from all countries into the U.S. has been in effect since June 4. Trump also put a 25% tariff on all cars and trucks not built in the U.S.

Economists, businesses and some publicly traded companies have warned that tariffs could raise prices on a wide range of consumer products.

Trump has said he wants to use tariffs to restore manufacturing jobs lost to lower-wage countries in decades past, shift the tax burden away from U.S. families, and pay down the national debt.

A tariff is a tax on imported goods paid by the person or company that imports them. The importer can absorb the cost of the tariffs or try to pass the cost on to consumers through higher prices.

Trump’s tariffs give U.S.-produced goods a price advantage over imported goods, generating revenue for the federal government.

Continue Reading

Alberta

Canadian Oil Sands Production Expected to Reach All-time Highs this Year Despite Lower Oil Prices

Published on June 30, 2025

By

From Energy Now

S&P Global Commodity Insights has raised its 10-year production outlook for the Canadian oil sands. The latest forecast expects oil sands production to reach a record annual average production of 3.5 million b/d in 2025 (5% higher than 2024) and exceed 3.9 million b/d by 2030—half a million barrels per day higher than 2024. The 2030 projection is 100,000 barrels per day (or nearly 3%) higher than the previous outlook.

The new forecast, produced by the S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue, is the fourth consecutive upward revision to the annual outlook. Despite a lower oil price environment, the analysis attributes the increased projection to favorable economics, as producers continue to focus on maximizing existing assets through investments in optimization and efficiency.

Get the Latest Canadian Focused Energy News Delivered to You! It’s FREE: Quick Sign-Up Here

While large up-front, out-of-pocket expenditures over multiple years are required to bring online new oil sands projects, once completed, projects enjoy relatively low breakeven prices.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that the 2025 half-cycle break-even for oil sands production ranged from US$18/b to US$45/b, on a WTI basis, with the overall average break-even being approximately US$27/b.*

“The increased trajectory for Canadian oil sands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers’ continued emphasis on optimization—and the favorable economics that underpin such operations,” said Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Analyst, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “More than 3.8 million barrels per day of existing installed capacity was brought online from 2001 and 2017. This large resource base provides ample room for producers to find debottlenecking opportunities, decrease downtime and increase throughput.”

The potential for additional upside exists given the nature of optimization projects, which often result from learning by doing or emerge organically, the analysis says.

“Many companies are likely to proceed with optimizations even in more challenging price environments because they often contribute to efficiency gains,” said Celina Hwang, Director, Crude Oil Markets, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “This dynamic adds to the resiliency of oil sands production and its ability to grow through periods of price volatility.”

The outlook continues to expect oil sands production to enter a plateau later this decade. However, this is also expected to occur at a higher level of production than previously estimated. The new forecast expects oil sands production to be 3.7 million b/d in 2035—100,000 b/d higher than the previous outlook.

Export capacity—already a concern in recent years—is a source of downside risk now that even more production growth is expected. Without further incremental pipeline capacity, export constraints have the potential to re-emerge as early as next year, the analysis says.

“While a lower price path in 2025 and the potential for pipeline export constraints are downside risks to this outlook, the oil sands have proven able to withstand extreme price volatility in the past,” said Hwang. “The low break-even costs for existing projects and producers’ ability to manage challenging situations in the past support the resilience of this outlook.”

* Half-cycle breakeven cost includes operating cost, the cost to purchase diluent (if needed), as well as an adjustment to enable a comparison to WTI—specifically, the cost of transport to Cushing, OK and quality differential between heavy and light oil.

About S&P Global Commodity Insights

At S&P Global Commodity Insights, our complete view of global energy and commodity markets enables our customers to make decisions with conviction and create long-term, sustainable value.

We’re a trusted connector that brings together thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators and we create solutions that lead to progress. Vital to navigating commodity markets, our coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, shipping and energy transition. Platts® products and services, including leading benchmark price assessments in the physical commodity markets, are offered through S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global Commodity Insights maintains clear structural and operational separation between its price assessment activities and the other activities carried out by S&P Global Commodity Insights and the other business divisions of S&P Global.

S&P Global Commodity Insights is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information visit https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en.

SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights

Continue Reading

Trending

X