Alberta
Why the oilsands’ weaknesses are turning into strengths

From the MacDonald Laurier Institute
By Heather Exner-Pirot
Global oil prices are recovering from a multi-year bust
Few industrial projects have been more maligned than Canada’s oilsands. It has been called tar sands, a carbon bomb, the “dirtiest oil on the planet.” It’s suffered through the shale revolution, the COVID-19 shutdown, and a torrent of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) divestment. Its grade of heavy oil has been discounted and shunned.
But despite the challenges, things are coming up roses. In almost every aspect of the sector that has looked weak in the past decade—costs, grade, carbon intensity—the oilsands are coming on strong, and poised to provide unprecedented revenue streams for Canadian public coffers.
Oilsands are known as “unconventional” oil, which is extraction from anything other than traditional, vertical wells. In northern Alberta, the expansive hydrocarbon resources are in bitumen form, a molasses-like consistency too heavy to flow on its own. It takes a lot of capital and energy to turn the oilsands’ oil into a product that can be transported, refined and used by consumers.
For this reason, the oilsands were seen in the early 2010s as an expensive form of oil, with high up-front costs and a high break-even price: up to USD$75/barrel for new oilsands mines. This made it difficult to compete with cheaper American shale, which came online at scale at the same time as the oilsands, to great chagrin in Calgary.
However, global oil prices are recovering from a multi-year bust, and new “in-situ” extraction technologies have greatly reduced oilsands recovery costs. Break-even prices now average less than USD$40/barrel, and BMO Capital Markets assessed in September that the average oilsands producers could cover their capital budgets and base dividends at USD$46/barrel. By contrast the average large U.S. producer requires USD$53.50/barrel. For new shale wells outside of Texas last year, it was $69/barrel.
Another advantage is that oilsands are low-decline, which means they have decades of inventory, or oil available to be extracted. Shale oil sites have declined as high as 50 percent in the first year. While the oilsands reap the benefits of past investments, shale producers need to continuously drill and invest in new production. (But they haven’t been of late: the U.S. oil rig count has fallen 21 percent since December 2022, largely because of new well costs.)
Another challenge for the oilsands has been its grade: “heavy” or dense, and “sour” or high in sulfur. Light, sweet crudes are easier to refine and have historically sold at a premium. The difference can be stark: at its worst in 2018, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil sold for USD$57 a barrel, compared to just USD$11 for heavy Western Canada Select (WCS).
But heavy oil has qualities that are desirable, even necessary for some refined products. Whereas light crude is primarily made into fuels, heavy oil is advantageous for plastics, petrochemicals, other fuels, and road surfacing: things we will still need in a post-combustion, net-zero world. Many American refineries are configured to process heavy oil. Because the U.S. produces virtually none itself, they depend on cheap Canadian sources.
Geopolitical factors are also bolstering heavy and sour oil. Recent production cuts by OPEC+, designed to lift global oil prices, have limited supply of medium and heavy sour grades, which matches the kind of oil the Biden Administration released in its big Strategic Petroleum Reserve sell-off last year. This has brought higher prices for heavy, sour oil, more good news for the oilsands.
As for the oilsands’ biggest Achilles heel, its carbon intensity, this is another weakness turning into a strength. The oilsands are geographically concentrated, with a small number of facilities producing large amounts of emissions. This makes them far easier to decarbonize than conventional oil, which needs huge fleets of rigs creating hundreds of emissions sources in order to produce comparable amounts of oil. Seizing the opportunity, the major oilsands producers are working together on one of the biggest carbon capture projects in the world, building a 400-km CO₂ pipeline that could link over 20 CCS facilities with a carbon storage hub in northeast Alberta. Small modular reactors are another option being explored to reduce emissions. It’s not easy or cheap, but it’s possible to reach net zero, which producers plan to do by 2050.
All of this is not just good news for the oilsands, but for Albertans and Canadians as well. In 2022, royalties going into public coffers from oil and gas extraction hit a record $33.8 billion; that’s more than all royalties from 2016-20 combined. The boost comes not just from higher prices but from Alberta’s strategy to charge significantly higher royalties—up to 40 percent—from oilsands facilities whose upfront development costs have been paid off and revenues are exceeding operating expenses.
A large number of facilities have already reached this threshold, and more are added each year. This flexible new paradigm of permanently higher royalties helps governments moderate the budget rollercoaster of volatile oil prices: nine times more at $55/barrel, and four and half times more at $120/barrel. Next year, when the TMX pipeline adds more than half a million barrels a day of capacity from the oilsands to new markets, the value of royalties will also increase, along with corporate taxes.
Of course, the oilsands still face headwinds from Ottawa, none bigger than a proposal to reduce oil and gas emissions by 42 percent (from 2019 levels) by 2030. Although the oil and gas sector has invested heavily in emissions reductions, and greenhouse gas intensity per barrel fell 20 percent between 2009 and 2020, there is no way to meet the new target without cutting production. S&P Global estimates that 1.3 million barrels of daily output will need to be slashed, which would be an existential threat to the sector. Fortunately, the political tide in Canada is turning in such a way that the oilsands could hang on long enough to see friendlier policies.
Finally, the oilsands remain unloved by investors, although the tide has been turning with higher prices. Their enterprise multiple (EV/DACF), a standard valuation formula, is on average 5.8x as of September and was even lower in 2022. This is much lower than the S&P 500, which has averaged between 11 to 16x in the last few years. In Calgary this has been called the Ottawa penalty box: the only logical explanation for their low valuation seems to be the lack of confidence investors associate with the Canadian energy policy landscape. At any rate, oilsands companies are currently free cashflow machines and are rewarding the shareholders they do have with share buybacks.
After nearly a decade on their back foot, the oilsands have reason for optimism. Lots of people still love to hate them, but they’re starting to rack up some wins.
Heather Exner-Pirot is the director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
Alberta
Albertans need clarity on prime minister’s incoherent energy policy

From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
The new government under Prime Minister Mark Carney recently delivered its throne speech, which set out the government’s priorities for the coming term. Unfortunately, on energy policy, Albertans are still waiting for clarity.
Prime Minister Carney’s position on energy policy has been confusing, to say the least. On the campaign trail, he promised to keep Trudeau’s arbitrary emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, and Bill C-69 (which opponents call the “no more pipelines act”). Then, two weeks ago, he said his government will “change things at the federal level that need to be changed in order for projects to move forward,” adding he may eventually scrap both the emissions cap and Bill C-69.
His recent cabinet appointments further muddied his government’s position. On one hand, he appointed Tim Hodgson as the new minister of Energy and Natural Resources. Hodgson has called energy “Canada’s superpower” and promised to support oil and pipelines, and fix the mistrust that’s been built up over the past decade between Alberta and Ottawa. His appointment gave hope to some that Carney may have a new approach to revitalize Canada’s oil and gas sector.
On the other hand, he appointed Julie Dabrusin as the new minister of Environment and Climate Change. Dabrusin was the parliamentary secretary to the two previous environment ministers (Jonathan Wilkinson and Steven Guilbeault) who opposed several pipeline developments and were instrumental in introducing the oil and gas emissions cap, among other measures designed to restrict traditional energy development.
To confuse matters further, Guilbeault, who remains in Carney’s cabinet albeit in a diminished role, dismissed the need for additional pipeline infrastructure less than 48 hours after Carney expressed conditional support for new pipelines.
The throne speech was an opportunity to finally provide clarity to Canadians—and specifically Albertans—about the future of Canada’s energy industry. During her first meeting with Prime Minister Carney, Premier Danielle Smith outlined Alberta’s demands, which include scrapping the emissions cap, Bill C-69 and Bill C-48, which bans most oil tankers loading or unloading anywhere on British Columbia’s north coast (Smith also wants Ottawa to support an oil pipeline to B.C.’s coast). But again, the throne speech provided no clarity on any of these items. Instead, it contained vague platitudes including promises to “identify and catalyse projects of national significance” and “enable Canada to become the world’s leading energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy.”
Until the Carney government provides a clear plan to address the roadblocks facing Canada’s energy industry, private investment will remain on the sidelines, or worse, flow to other countries. Put simply, time is up. Albertans—and Canadians—need clarity. No more flip flopping and no more platitudes.
Addictions
New RCMP program steering opioid addicted towards treatment and recovery

News release from Alberta RCMP
Virtual Opioid Dependency Program serves vulnerable population in Red Deer
Since April 2024, your Alberta RCMP’s Community Safety and Well-being Branch (CSWB) has been piloting the Virtual Opioid Dependency Program (VODP) program in Red Deer to assist those facing opioid dependency with initial-stage intervention services. VODP is a collaboration with the Government of Alberta, Recovery Alberta, and the Alberta RCMP, and was created to help address opioid addiction across the province.
Red Deer’s VODP consists of two teams, each consisting of a police officer and a paramedic. These teams cover the communities of Red Deer, Innisfail, Blackfalds and Sylvan Lake. The goal of the program is to have frontline points of contact that can assist opioid users by getting them access to treatment, counselling, and life-saving medication.
The Alberta RCMP’s role in VODP:
- Conducting outreach in the community, on foot, by vehicle, and even UTV, and interacting with vulnerable persons and talking with them about treatment options and making VODP referrals.
- Attending calls for service in which opioid use may be a factor, such as drug poisonings, open drug use in public, social diversion calls, etc.
- Administering medication such as Suboxone and Sublocade to opioid users who are arrested and lodged in RCMP cells and voluntarily wish to participate in VODP; these medications help with withdrawal symptoms and are the primary method for treating opioid addiction. Individuals may be provided ongoing treatment while in police custody or incarceration.
- Collaborating with agencies in the treatment and addiction space to work together on client care. Red Deer’s VODP chairs a quarterly Vulnerable Populations Working Group meeting consisting of a number of local stakeholders who come together to address both client and community needs.
While accountability for criminal actions is necessary, the Alberta RCMP recognizes that opioid addiction is part of larger social and health issues that require long-term supports. Often people facing addictions are among offenders who land in a cycle of criminality. As first responders, our officers are frequently in contact with these individuals. We are ideally placed to help connect those individuals with the VODP. The Alberta RCMP helps those individuals who wish to participate in the VODP by ensuring that they have access to necessary resources and receive the medical care they need, even while they are in police custody.
Since its start, the Red Deer program has made nearly 2,500 referrals and touchpoints with individuals, discussing VODP participation and treatment options. Some successes of the program include:
- In October 2024, Red Deer VODP assessed a 35-year-old male who was arrested and in police custody. The individual was put in contact with medical care and was prescribed and administered Suboxone. The team members did not have any contact with the male again until April 2025 when the individual visited the detachment to thank the team for treating him with care and dignity while in cells, and for getting him access to treatment. The individual stated he had been sober since, saying the treatment saved his life.
- In May 2025, the VODP team worked with a 14-year-old female who was arrested on warrants and lodged in RCMP cells. She had run away from home and was located downtown using opioids. The team spoke to the girl about treatment, was referred to VODP, and was administered Sublocade to treat her addiction. During follow-up, the team received positive feedback from both the family and the attending care providers.
The VODP provides same-day medication starts, opioid treatment transition services, and ongoing opioid dependency care to people anywhere in Alberta who are living with opioid addiction. Visit vodp.ca to learn more.
“This collaboration between Alberta’s Government, Recovery Alberta and the RCMP is a powerful example of how partnerships between health and public safety can change lives. The Virtual Opioid Dependency Program can be the first step in a person’s journey to recovery,” says Alberta’s Minister of Mental Health and Addiction Rick Wilson. “By connecting people to treatment when and where they need it most, we are helping build more paths to recovery and to a healthier Alberta.”
“Part of the Alberta RCMP’s CSWB mandate is the enhancement of public safety through community partnerships,” says Supt. Holly Glassford, Detachment Commander of Red Deer RCMP. “Through VODP, we are committed to building upon community partnerships with social and health agencies, so that we can increase accessibility to supports in our city and reduce crime in Red Deer. Together we are creating a stronger, safer Alberta.”
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