Business
Trumpian chaos—where we are now and what’s coming for Canada

From the Fraser Institute
As we pause to catch our breath amid the ongoing drama of President Donald Trump’s whack-a-mole tariff war, there’s both good and bad news from a Canadian perspective.
On the positive side, Canada (together with Mexico) was not specifically targeted when the president outlined the details of his so-called “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2. These new levies—ranging from 10 per cent to more than 40 per cent, depending on the country—will affect most categories of exports from virtually every U.S. trading partner, but fortunately not America’s two co-signatories to the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Instead, apart from a handful of significant economic sectors (discussed below), Canadian exporters, for the moment, will be able to sell tariff-free into the U.S. market, provided they are compliant with the rules and paperwork requirements stipulated in CUSMA. That’s a ray of sunshine in an otherwise dark sky.
On April 9, the president agreed to a 90-day pause on his sweeping reciprocal tariffs, perhaps because of plunging U.S. and global stock markets and mounting fears of economic calamity. At the same time, he announced a jaw-dropping 125 per cent tariff on imports from China, which then immediately retaliated with steep duties of its own on all U.S. goods entering the country.
The risk remains that when the dust settles, the U.S will end up applying much higher tariffs on imports from most of the world. Should President Trump adopt the reciprocal levies announced on April 2 and stick with the 125 per cent tariff on imports from China, Yale University researchers estimate that the average effective U.S. tariff rate will soar to 25.3 per cent—more than 10 times higher than the average over the preceding 25 years. That’s one measure of the disruption that Trump has visited upon the international trading system.
For Canada, the average U.S. tariff would be lower, between 4 and 5 per cent, reflecting the benefits of CUSMA, albeit somewhat offset by the negative impact of the 25 per cent levies the U.S. is imposing on all imports of steel, aluminum, and motor vehicles and parts, along with separate punitive duties on softwood lumber imported from Canada. American tariffs on these Canadian export sectors will undoubtedly exact a toll on our economy. But the damage would be considerably greater if Canada was subject to across-the-board U.S. reciprocal tariffs.
Where does all of this leave Canada’s $3.3 trillion economy as of the second quarter of 2025?
Late last year, most forecasters were expecting a modest pick-up in growth after a notably lacklustre 2024, mainly thanks to lower interest rates and reduced borrowing costs for households and businesses. However, that widely-shared view didn’t account for President Trump’s wholesale assault on the global economic system—“a new economic crisis,” as Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem described the situation in late March.
Back in February, the central bank took a stab at modelling the effects of matching U.S. and Canadian tariffs of 25 per cent, levied on all bilateral goods trade (apart from energy where a lower tariff rate was assumed). Its projections pointed to a permanent loss of Canadian economic output (real GDP) on the order of 2-3 per cent, a double-digit percentage decline in business investment, weaker consumption and a substantial fall in the value of Canadian exports over 2025/26. The Bank’s modelling also foresaw a lower Canadian dollar and a temporary jump in inflation, with the latter due primarily to Canada’s assumed retaliatory tariffs.
The macroeconomic scenario outlined in the Bank of Canada’s January study was dire enough, signalling a Canadian recession stretching over most of 2025 and well into 2026. But seen through today’s lens, the Bank’s earlier analysis looks too optimistic, as it failed to incorporate the worldwide dimensions of President Trump’s tariff barrage, including the scale of the retaliation planned by America’s aggrieved trading partners.
Even if it escapes the worst of Trump’s tariffs, Canada stands to suffer from a gruesome mix of slower global growth, a probable U.S. recession, and falling prices for oil, minerals and other natural resource products, which collectively comprise around half of the country’s international exports. Already there has been a marked erosion of Canadian business confidence, as reported in the Bank of Canada’s spring Business Outlook Survey, with one-third of firms now expecting a recession and hiring intentions sinking to the lowest level in a decade. Most respondents to the Bank’s survey also anticipate rising business input costs and higher Canadian inflation in 2025.
Worryingly, the latest Bank of Canada survey was completed in February; since then, the intensity of the Trumpian chaos has continued to increase. Among other things, the uncertainty that is an inevitable by-product of the president’s shambolic policymaking is having a decisively negative impact on business investment in many industries—in Canada, to be sure, but also in the United States. As two American business analysts recently observed: “With tariff policy shifting not day by day, but hour by hour… business investment is entirely paralyzed—and will continue to be frozen for the foreseeable future. That is exactly the opposite of what Trump intended.”
It doesn’t help that Canada is in the midst of a federal election, and that the government is therefore “otherwise occupied.” Once Canadian voters have spoken, the government elected on April 28 must deal with a deteriorating economy, navigate through the tariff fog and determine how to reset economic and security relations with our principal ally and commercial partner in the turbulent era of Trump 2.0.
Business
China, Mexico, Canada Flagged in $1.4 Billion Fentanyl Trade by U.S. Financial Watchdog

Sam Cooper
The U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has identified $1.4 billion in fentanyl-linked suspicious transactions, naming China, Mexico, Canada, and India as key foreign touchpoints in the global production and laundering network. The analysis, based on 1,246 Bank Secrecy Act filings submitted in 2024, tracks financial activity spanning chemical purchases, trafficking logistics, and international money laundering operations.
The data reveals that Mexico and the People’s Republic of China were the two most frequently named foreign jurisdictions in financial intelligence gathered by FinCEN. Most of the flagged transactions originated in U.S. cities, the report notes, due to the “domestic nature” of Bank Secrecy Act data collection. Among foreign jurisdictions, Mexico, China, Hong Kong, and Canada were cited most often in fentanyl-related financial activity.
The FinCEN report points to Mexico as the epicenter of illicit fentanyl production, with Mexican cartels importing precursor chemicals from China and laundering proceeds through complex financial routes involving U.S., Canadian, and Hong Kong-based actors.
The findings also align with testimony from U.S. and Canadian law enforcement veterans who have told The Bureau that Chinese state-linked actors sit atop a decentralized but industrialized global fentanyl economy—supplying precursors, pill presses, and financing tools that rely on trade-based money laundering and professional money brokers operating across North America.
“Filers also identified PRC-based subjects in reported money laundering activity, including suspected trade-based money laundering schemes that leveraged the Chinese export sector,” the report says.
A point emphasized by Canadian and U.S. experts—including former U.S. State Department investigator Dr. David Asher—that professional Chinese money laundering networks operating in North America are significantly commanded by Chinese Communist Party–linked Triad bosses based in Ontario and British Columbia—is not explored in detail in this particular FinCEN report.¹
Chinese chemical manufacturers—primarily based in Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hebei provinces—were repeatedly cited for selling fentanyl precursors via wire transfers and money service businesses. These sales were often facilitated through e-commerce platforms, suggesting that China’s global retail footprint conceals a lethal underground market—one that ultimately fuels a North American public health crisis. In many cases, the logistics were sophisticated: some Chinese companies even offered delivery guarantees and customs clearance for precursor shipments, raising red flags for enforcement officials.
While China’s industrial base dominates the global fentanyl supply chain, Mexican cartels are the next most prominent state-like actors in the ecosystem—but the report emphasizes that Canada and India are rising contributors.
“Subjects in other foreign countries—including Canada, the Dominican Republic, and India—highlight the presence of alternative suppliers of precursor chemicals and fentanyl,” the report says.
“Canada-based subjects were primarily identified by Bank Secrecy Act filers due to their suspected involvement in drug trafficking organizations allegedly sourcing fentanyl and other drugs from traditional drug source countries, such as Mexico,” it explains, adding that banking intelligence “identified activity indicative of Canada-based individuals and companies purchasing precursor chemicals and laboratory equipment that may be related to the synthesis of fentanyl in Canada. Canada-based subjects were primarily reported with addresses in the provinces of British Columbia and Ontario.”
FinCEN also flagged activity from Hong Kong-based shell companies—often subsidiaries or intermediaries for Chinese chemical exporters. These entities were used to obscure the PRC’s role in transactions and to move funds through U.S.-linked bank corridors.
Breaking down the fascinating and deadly world of Chinese underground banking used to move fentanyl profits from American cities back to producers, the report explains how Chinese nationals in North America are quietly enlisted to move large volumes of cash across borders—without ever triggering traditional wire transfers.
These networks, formally known as Chinese Money Laundering Organizations (CMLOs), operate within a global underground banking system that uses “mirror transfers.” In this system, a Chinese citizen with renminbi in China pays a local broker, while the U.S. dollar equivalent is handed over—often in cash—to a recipient in cities like Los Angeles or New York who may have no connection to the original Chinese depositor aside from their role in the laundering network. The renminbi, meanwhile, is used inside China to purchase goods such as electronics, which are then exported to Mexico and delivered to cartel-linked recipients.
FinCEN reports that US-based money couriers—often Chinese visa holders—were observed depositing large amounts of cash into bank accounts linked to everyday storefront businesses, including nail salons and restaurants. Some of the cash was then used to purchase cashier’s checks, a common method used to obscure the origin and destination of the funds. To banks, the activity might initially appear consistent with a legitimate business. However, modern AI-powered transaction monitoring systems are increasingly capable of flagging unusual patterns—such as small businesses conducting large or repetitive transfers that appear disproportionate to their stated operations.
On the Mexican side, nearly one-third of reports named subjects located in Sinaloa and Jalisco, regions long controlled by the Sinaloa Cartel and Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación. Individuals in these states were often cited as recipients of wire transfers from U.S.-based senders suspected of repatriating drug proceeds. Others were flagged as originators of payments to Chinese chemical suppliers, raising alarms about front companies and brokers operating under false pretenses.
The report outlines multiple cases where Mexican chemical brokers used generic payment descriptions such as “goods” or “services” to mask wire transfers to China. Some of these transactions passed through U.S.-based intermediaries, including firms owned by Chinese nationals. These shell companies were often registered in unrelated sectors—like marketing, construction, or hardware—and exhibited red flags such as long dormancy followed by sudden spikes in large transactions.
Within the United States, California, Florida, and New York were most commonly identified in fentanyl-related financial filings. These locations serve as key hubs for distribution and as collection points for laundering proceeds. Cash deposits and peer-to-peer payment platforms were the most cited methods for fentanyl-linked transactions, appearing in 54 percent and 51 percent of filings, respectively.
A significant number of flagged transactions included slang terms and emojis—such as “blues,” “ills,” or blue dots—in memo fields. Structured cash deposits were commonly made across multiple branches or ATMs, often linked to otherwise legitimate businesses such as restaurants, salons, and trucking firms.
FinCEN also tracked a growing number of trade-based laundering schemes, in which proceeds from fentanyl sales were used to buy electronics and vaping devices. In one case, U.S.-based companies owned by Chinese nationals made outbound payments to Chinese manufacturers, using funds pooled from retail accounts and shell companies. These goods were then shipped to Mexico, closing the laundering loop.
Another key laundering method involved cryptocurrency. Nearly 10 percent of all fentanyl-related reports involved virtual currency, with Bitcoin the most commonly cited, followed by Ethereum and Litecoin. FinCEN flagged twenty darknet marketplaces as suspected hubs for fentanyl distribution and cited failures by some digital asset platforms to catch red-flag activity.
Overall, FinCEN warns that fentanyl-linked funds continue to enter the U.S. financial system through loosely regulated or poorly monitored channels, even as law enforcement ramps up enforcement. The Drug Enforcement Administration reported seizures of over 55 million counterfeit fentanyl pills in 2024 alone.
The broader pattern is unmistakable: precursor chemicals flow from China, manufacturing occurs in Mexico, Canada plays an increasing role in chemical acquisition and potential synthesis, and drugs and proceeds flood into the United States, supported by global financial tools and trade structures. The same infrastructure that enables lawful commerce is being manipulated to sustain the deadliest synthetic drug crisis in modern history.
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2025 Federal Election
Canada drops retaliatory tariffs on automakers, pauses other tariffs

MxM News
Quick Hit:
Canada has announced it will roll back retaliatory tariffs on automakers and pause several other tariff measures aimed at the United States. The move, unveiled by Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, is designed to give Canadian manufacturers breathing room to adjust their supply chains and reduce reliance on American imports.
Key Details:
- Canada will suspend 25% tariffs on U.S. vehicles for automakers that maintain production, employment, and investment in Canada.
- A broader six-month pause on tariffs for other U.S. imports is intended to help Canadian sectors transition to domestic sourcing.
- A new loan facility will support large Canadian companies that were financially stable before the tariffs but are now struggling.
Diving Deeper:
Ottawa is shifting its approach to the escalating trade war with Washington, softening its economic blows in a calculated effort to stabilize domestic manufacturing. On Tuesday, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne outlined a new set of trade policies that provide conditional relief from retaliatory tariffs that have been in place since March. Automakers, the hardest-hit sector, will now be eligible to import U.S. vehicles duty-free—provided they continue to meet criteria that include ongoing production and investment in Canada.
“From day one, the government has reacted with strength and determination to the unjust tariffs imposed by the United States on Canadian goods,” Champagne stated. “We’re giving Canadian companies and entities more time to adjust their supply chains and become less dependent on U.S. suppliers.”
The tariff battle, which escalated in April with Canada slapping a 25% tax on U.S.-imported vehicles, had caused severe anxiety within Canada’s auto industry. John D’Agnolo, president of Unifor Local 200, which represents Ford employees in Windsor, warned the BBC the situation “has created havoc” and could trigger a recession.
Speculation about a possible Honda factory relocation to the U.S. only added to the unrest. But Ontario Premier Doug Ford and federal officials were quick to tamp down the rumors. Honda Canada affirmed its commitment to Canadian operations, saying its Alliston facility “will operate at full capacity for the foreseeable future.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney reinforced the message that the relief isn’t unconditional. “Our counter-tariffs won’t apply if they (automakers) continue to produce, continue to employ, continue to invest in Canada,” he said during a campaign event. “If they don’t, they will get 25% tariffs on what they are importing into Canada.”
Beyond the auto sector, Champagne introduced a six-month tariff reprieve on other U.S. imports, granting time for industries to explore domestic alternatives. He also rolled out a “Large Enterprise Tariff Loan Facility” to support big businesses that were financially sound prior to the tariff regime but have since been strained.
While Canada has shown willingness to ease its retaliatory measures, there’s no indication yet that the U.S. under President Donald Trump will reciprocate. Nevertheless, Ottawa signaled its openness to further steps to protect Canadian businesses and workers, noting that “additional measures will be brought forward, as needed.”
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