This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Lennie Kaplan

Alberta has the leverage and the responsibility to push for serious reform of Canada’s equalization system

Albertans are projected to send $252.5 billion more to Ottawa than they get back over the next 15 years —a staggering imbalance that underscores the
urgent need to overhaul federal-provincial fiscal arrangements.

That figure represents Alberta’s net fiscal contribution—the difference between what Alberta sends to Ottawa in taxes and what they get back in
return. Alberta, like all provincial governments, does not directly contribute to federal revenues.

These projections are based on fiscal estimates I’ve prepared using the same framework as Statistics Canada’s annual fiscal reports. Between 2025 and 2039, federal revenues raised in Alberta are expected to total nearly $1.42 trillion, while spending in the province will reach only $1.17 trillion. That leaves a gap of $252.5 billion.

This gap isn’t static. On an annual basis, Alberta’s contribution is projected to grow significantly over time. It’s forecast to rise from $12.7 billion in 2025, or $2,538 per person, to nearly $20.6 billion, or $3,459 per person, by 2039.

This isn’t new. Alberta has long been a major net contributor to Confederation. Between 2007 and 2023, Albertans paid $267.4 billion more to
Ottawa than they received in return, according to Statistics Canada. The only exception came in 2020 and 2021, years heavily impacted by COVID-19.

Albertans face the same federal tax rates as other Canadians but pay far more per person due to higher average incomes and a strong corporate tax base. This higher contribution translates into billions collected annually by Ottawa.

In 2025, the federal government is projected to collect $68.8 billion from Alberta, about $13,743 per person. By 2039, that will grow to $127.2 billion, or $21,380 per person. More than half will come from personal income taxes.

Meanwhile, federal spending in Alberta lags behind. In 2025, it’s expected to be $56.1 billion, or $11,205 per person—rising to $106.6 billion, or $17,831 per person, by 2039.

This includes transfers to individuals—about $17.5 billion in 2025, and $28.8 billion in 2039—and federal transfers to the provincial government, which are projected to grow from $12.9 billion to $20.9 billion. These include the Canada Health Transfer and the Canada Social Transfer, which help fund health care, education and social services.

Alberta does not receive equalization payments, which are meant to help less wealthy provinces provide comparable public services. Equalization is funded through general federal revenues, including taxes paid by Albertans. That imbalance is more than a budget line—it speaks to a deeper fairness issue at the heart of federal-provincial relations. Alberta pays more, gets less and continues to shoulder a disproportionate share of the federal burden.

That’s why Alberta must take the lead in pushing for reform. The Alberta Next Panel process—a provincial initiative to gather public input and expert advice on Alberta’s role in Confederation—gives the government an opportunity to consult with Albertans and bring forward proposals to fix the tangled mess of federal transfer programs.

These proposals should be advanced by Premier Danielle Smith’s government in discussions with Ottawa and other provinces. Alberta’s fiscal strength demands a stronger voice at the national table.

Some may argue for separation, but that’s not a viable path. The better solution is to demand fairness—starting with a more rigorous, transparent process for renewing major federal transfer programs.

Right now, Ottawa often renews key programs, like equalization, without proper consultation. That’s unacceptable. Provinces like Alberta deserve a seat at the table when billions of dollars are at stake.

If Alberta is expected to keep footing the bill, it must be treated as a full partner —not just a source of cash. Fixing the imbalance isn’t just about Alberta. A more open, co-operative approach to fiscal policy will strengthen national unity and ensure all provinces are treated fairly within Confederation.

Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance. During his tenure, he focused, among other duties, on developing meaningful options to reform federal-provincial fiscal arrangements. 

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.

This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Lisa Baiton

Without decisive action, Canada risks missing out on a generational opportunity

For decades, Canada has relied almost exclusively on the United States to buy our natural gas exports. We are one of the world’s top natural gas exporters, selling nearly half of our total natural gas production each year, but about 99 percent of those exports go to a single customer south of
our border.

This trading relationship has been reliable, even though it has meant selling our natural gas at a lower price. But things are changing.

A good business has more than one customer, and over the past decade our biggest customer has become the largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exporter on the planet.

But Canada has taken a major step forward. LNG Canada’s first shipment to international markets marks a historic breakthrough—it’s the country’s largest private investment and puts Canada on the map as a global supplier of LNG.

This achievement deserves celebration. It demonstrates that Canada can build and deliver major energy infrastructure, unlocking economic opportunities for Indigenous Nations, British Columbians, and Canadians across the country. Just as the TransMountain pipeline expansion diversified our global customer base boosted our GDP, and enabled production growth, LNG exports can do for our natural gas sector. Natural gas royalties from LNG Canada alone are projected to contribute $23 billion to British Columbia’s government over its 40-year lifespan. Building a facility of similar scale to LNG Canada is estimated to create over 35,000 jobs during construction and add up to $4.5 billion to our national GDP annually. It’s a glimpse of what’s possible.

But we can’t stop here.

Without decisive action to scale up LNG, Canada risks missing out on a generational opportunity to secure economic sovereignty and meet rising global energy demand.

Global demand for LNG is surging. Shell forecasts a 60 per cent increase by 2040, driven by Asian economic growth, the decarbonization of heavy industry and transport, and new energy demands from artificial intelligence. Most G7 leaders have called for a full ban on Russian energy imports, and countries around the world are actively seeking secure, stable suppliers. Canada, as the fourth-largest oil producer and fifth-largest natural gas producer, is well-positioned to help fill that gap.

So why haven’t we? Despite our resource wealth, Canada lags on infrastructure and policy. While others sprint for global contracts, we’re stuck in red tape. Our permitting system is slow, uncertain, and hostile to investment. That must change.

The government’s two-year approval target is a step forward, as is the recent work our Prime Minister and Energy Minister Hodgson are doing to promote energy trade in Poland and Germany, including LNG. But deeper reforms are needed to create a clear, competitive, investor-friendly system that accelerates development.

We must also prioritize infrastructure investment. With strategic investments in pipelines, LNG terminals, and port capacity, we can connect our vast natural gas reserves to highdemand markets across Asia, Europe, and beyond.

Equally crucial is diversification. The U.S. will remain a vital customer, but relying on one market is no longer tenable. Japan, Europe, and emerging Asian economies are actively seeking partners—and Canada must be ready to meet them with reliable supplies and long-term contracts.

Indigenous participation will be key to success. Canada’s emerging LNG export industry is demonstrating what’s possible with the Haisla Nation’s Cedar LNG, the world’s first Indigenous majority-owned LNG project, along with Woodfibre LNG being advanced in partnership with the Squamish Nation, and Ksi Lisims LNG being co-developed with the Nisga’a Nation. Expanding the LNG sector offers an opportunity to advance reconciliation meaningfully, through ownership, jobs, and long-term prosperity.

This is a pivotal moment. The first phase of LNG Canada must be just the start. The world needs our energy. It’s time to deliver.

Lisa Baiton is the president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.