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The Silly Peak Oil Debate Rages On

Published

2 weeks ago

6 minute read

From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

 

By David Blackmon

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais

Analysts and professionals in the global energy space have long debated the prospects for reaching peak demand for crude oil. It is an issue that has long sparked debate, some of which becomes emotional among highly invested stakeholders on one side or the other.

In recent years, such stakeholders risk developing cases of whiplash when considering the competing perspectives about this “peak oil” matter published by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA has spent the last 12 months predicting an earlier advent of the peak oil phenomenon than pretty much any other experts envision, saying it will come about sometime in this decade, no later than 2030. Not surprisingly, the agency’s analysts doubled down on that projection in its most recent monthly Oil Market Report.

In a section titled “When the Music Stops,” the IEA focused on short-term factors like slowing demand growth in China, where oil consumption has declined year-over-year for the past four months. Noting that Chinese demand growth has slowed to an estimated 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) across 2024, the agency leaned on that data point as a reason to lower its estimated global demand growth to 800,000 bpd.

The same section also pointed to the isolated slowing of U.S. gasoline-deliveries growth in June — a factoid that could simply be statistical noise — as support for its annual growth forecast. But a slowdown in crude demand growth is no surprise, given that economic growth has been slowing throughout 2024. This direct cause-and-effect phenomenon has been a consistent aspect of oil markets across history. It is also a short-term factor whose impact will ultimately be diminished by subsequent events.

In contrast, OPEC’s projections over the past year regarding near-term global demand growth and the anticipated peak in oil demand have reached diametrically opposite conclusions. Last summer, the cartel projected global growth in crude demand for 2024 would be a robust 2.25 million bpd. Slowing economic growth has led OPEC’s analysts to lower that initial prediction over the past two months, but only to 2.1 million bpd — more than double that of both IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Where the concept of peak oil demand is concerned, OPEC has held to an even more oil-bullish stance, stating its projections do not see that threshold being reached anytime during its projection timeframe through 2050. In its annual Global Outlook published last week, OPEC sees oil demand growing by that year to 120 million bpd, a rise of 18 million bpd from current levels.

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais in the forward to the report.

Al Ghais also pointed out the fact that: “Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready, economically competitive, acceptable to consumers and with the right infrastructure in place.” This undeniable reality means that projections of oil demand in the transportation sector being crushed by alternatives like EVs and hydrogen cars are almost certainly overly optimistic. The rapidly faltering market demand for EVs strongly supports that likelihood.

Al Ghais also contends that a “realistic view of demand growth expectations necessitates adequate investments in oil and gas, today, tomorrow, and for many decades into the future.” That contention stands in contrast to the IEA report released in May, 2021, in which IEA Director Fatih Birol urged an immediate halt in all new investments in the finding and development of new oil resources in order to fight climate change. By August of that year, Biral was comically urging oil companies to increase their oil production in order to help re-balance an undersupplied global market.

Episodes like that have led many to question whether IEA bases its projections related to oil markets on data or on wishful thinking. The validity of such questions was only reinforced when Birol announced early this year that the agency’s mission was being expanded into outright advocacy for promoting the energy transition.

So, who is right? We’ll find out in 2030, but the smart money is on the group with billions riding on the answer.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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Nearly One Million Foreign Nationals Flocked To US For Asylum In 2023, Shattering All-Time Record

Daily Caller

Nearly One Million Foreign Nationals Flocked To US For Asylum In 2023, Shattering All-Time Record

Published on October 9, 2024

By

From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

 

By Jason Hopkins

Nearly one million foreign nationals applied for asylum in the United States in fiscal year 2023, showcasing how dramatic the immigration crisis has become under the Biden-Harris administration, according to federal data.

There were a record-setting total of 945,370 asylum applications filed in fiscal year 2023, according to a report from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Not only were these the highest numbers in recorded history, but the report confirmed how applications in both categories of asylum — affirmative and defensive — nearly doubled in one single year under the Biden-Harris administration.

Affirmative asylum applicants are largely defined as non-citizens who initiated their asylum application with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). Foreign nationals who request asylum before an immigration judge during removal proceedings are considered defensive applicants — these applicants typically include illegal migrants and other non-citizens who are in violation of their status.

There were 456,750 affirmative asylum applications in 2023, the highest on record and nearly doubling from the 241,280 affirmative asylum case filings lodged the year before, according to DHS. In 2023, 488,620 defensive asylum applications were filed, the most ever recorded and almost doubling the 260,830 filed in 2022.

The DHS report also unveiled how initiatives championed under the Biden-Harris administration have resulted in explosive growth in asylum applications for certain nationalities.

There were less than 15,000 affirmative and defensive asylum applications lodged by Venezuelan nationals in fiscal year 2021, according to the report. That number skyrocketed to 173,190 in fiscal year 2023. Similar trends were also seen in Cuban, Nicaraguan and Haitian applicants during this same time frame.

These four nationality groups are included in the CHNV program, a parole initiative launched by the White House that has allowed hundreds of thousands of them to fly into the U.S. The CHNV program, which has been plagued with fraud, has so far paroled roughly half a million foreign nationals into the U.S. since it launched in January 2023, according to Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

The Biden-Harris administration has also helped streamline the asylum application process by expanding the role of the CBP One app, which allows foreign nationals to apply for asylum on a daily basis outside of the U.S.

Border Patrol agents have encountered more than seven million illegal migrants attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border since the beginning of the Biden-Harris administration, according to the latest CBP data. While an executive order handed down earlier this year has recently dwindled the number of illegal entries along the southern border, the backlog of cases currently pending in immigration court rooms has already reached record levels, causing immense strain for federal immigration staffers attempting to process the crisis.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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Daily Caller

Musk Reveals To Tucker Why He Thinks 2024 Will Be Last Election If Dems Win

Published on October 8, 2024

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

 

By Nicole Silverio

Tech billionaire Elon Musk said Monday that he believes Democrats will eliminate swing states if they are re-elected in the 2024 election.

Musk said during an interview with Daily Caller News Foundation co-founder Tucker Carlson that Democrats will legalize the status of illegal immigrants, which will in turn allow them to become citizens and vote in future elections. He said that this scenario would turn the U.S. into a “single party country,” as the illegal immigrants voting in elections will largely back Democratic candidates.

“My prediction is if there’s another 4 years of a [Democrat] administration, they will legalize so many illegals that are there that the next election there won’t be any swing states,” Musk told Carlson. “And we’ll be a single party country just like California is a single party state. It’s a super majority Dem state in California.”

The tech mogul said there will not be another election if Republican nominee Donald Trump does not win in November, causing him to endorse and support the former president.

“My view is that if Trump doesn’t win this election, it’s the last election we’re gonna have,” Musk said. “That the Dem machine has been importing so many people, bringing in so many illegals … they’re transporting large numbers of illegals to swing states. If you look at the numbers, these are the numbers from the government website, so like from the Democrat administrative government website … and there are triple digit numbers of illegals to all the swing states and in some cases, it’s 700% in the last three years.”

Musk further criticized California’s new law banning local governments from requiring voter identification.

The D.C. Council passed the “Local Resident Voting Rights Amendment Act” in 2022 to allow non-citizens to cast ballots in local elections. House Democrats urged members in May to oppose a Republican-led bill to bar the city government from allowing illegal immigrants to vote in local elections.

House Speaker Mike Johnson told CNN’s Jake Tapper in September that several states, including swing states, have found “thousands of non-citizens” are registered to vote, warning these illegal votes could “determine the outcome of the [2024] election.” Trump and Johnson discussed drafting legislation to require proof of citizenship in order to register to vote in April, NBC News reported.

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