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The Silly Peak Oil Debate Rages On

Published

9 months ago

6 minute read

From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

 

By David Blackmon

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais

Analysts and professionals in the global energy space have long debated the prospects for reaching peak demand for crude oil. It is an issue that has long sparked debate, some of which becomes emotional among highly invested stakeholders on one side or the other.

In recent years, such stakeholders risk developing cases of whiplash when considering the competing perspectives about this “peak oil” matter published by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA has spent the last 12 months predicting an earlier advent of the peak oil phenomenon than pretty much any other experts envision, saying it will come about sometime in this decade, no later than 2030. Not surprisingly, the agency’s analysts doubled down on that projection in its most recent monthly Oil Market Report.

In a section titled “When the Music Stops,” the IEA focused on short-term factors like slowing demand growth in China, where oil consumption has declined year-over-year for the past four months. Noting that Chinese demand growth has slowed to an estimated 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) across 2024, the agency leaned on that data point as a reason to lower its estimated global demand growth to 800,000 bpd.

The same section also pointed to the isolated slowing of U.S. gasoline-deliveries growth in June — a factoid that could simply be statistical noise — as support for its annual growth forecast. But a slowdown in crude demand growth is no surprise, given that economic growth has been slowing throughout 2024. This direct cause-and-effect phenomenon has been a consistent aspect of oil markets across history. It is also a short-term factor whose impact will ultimately be diminished by subsequent events.

In contrast, OPEC’s projections over the past year regarding near-term global demand growth and the anticipated peak in oil demand have reached diametrically opposite conclusions. Last summer, the cartel projected global growth in crude demand for 2024 would be a robust 2.25 million bpd. Slowing economic growth has led OPEC’s analysts to lower that initial prediction over the past two months, but only to 2.1 million bpd — more than double that of both IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Where the concept of peak oil demand is concerned, OPEC has held to an even more oil-bullish stance, stating its projections do not see that threshold being reached anytime during its projection timeframe through 2050. In its annual Global Outlook published last week, OPEC sees oil demand growing by that year to 120 million bpd, a rise of 18 million bpd from current levels.

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais in the forward to the report.

Al Ghais also pointed out the fact that: “Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready, economically competitive, acceptable to consumers and with the right infrastructure in place.” This undeniable reality means that projections of oil demand in the transportation sector being crushed by alternatives like EVs and hydrogen cars are almost certainly overly optimistic. The rapidly faltering market demand for EVs strongly supports that likelihood.

Al Ghais also contends that a “realistic view of demand growth expectations necessitates adequate investments in oil and gas, today, tomorrow, and for many decades into the future.” That contention stands in contrast to the IEA report released in May, 2021, in which IEA Director Fatih Birol urged an immediate halt in all new investments in the finding and development of new oil resources in order to fight climate change. By August of that year, Biral was comically urging oil companies to increase their oil production in order to help re-balance an undersupplied global market.

Episodes like that have led many to question whether IEA bases its projections related to oil markets on data or on wishful thinking. The validity of such questions was only reinforced when Birol announced early this year that the agency’s mission was being expanded into outright advocacy for promoting the energy transition.

So, who is right? We’ll find out in 2030, but the smart money is on the group with billions riding on the answer.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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‘Not Held Hostage Anymore’: Economist Explains How America Benefits If Trump Gets Oil And Gas Expansion

Daily Caller

‘Not Held Hostage Anymore’: Economist Explains How America Benefits If Trump Gets Oil And Gas Expansion

Published on June 18, 2025

By

 

From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Mariane Angela

Economist Steve Moore appeared on Fox Business Tuesday to discuss what he called the significance of expanding domestic oil and gas production in the United States.

President Donald Trump’s Executive Order 14154 aims to secure U.S. energy independence and global leadership by awarding 10-year oil and gas leases. During an appearance on “The Bottom Line,” Moore said that if Trump’s energy policies succeed then America will no longer have to rely on foreign oil.

“If Trump goes forward with what he wants to do, and our energy secretary is all in on this, produce as much oil and gas as we can here at home in Texas and North Dakota and Oklahoma and these other states. Then we’re not held hostage anymore to what’s happening in the Middle East,” Moore said. “That’s what’s so frustrating. We have more of this stuff than anybody does.”

WATCH: 

Moore then pointed to some of former President Joe Biden’s early decisions, particularly the cancellation of pipelines. Moore said these actions left the U.S. vulnerable to external energy crises.

“I don’t want to overemphasize the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It’s good that we have this sort of safety knot in case you have some kind of blow up in the Middle East, like we have now. But, ultimately, what Joe Biden did was the most sinister of all,” Moore said. “You guys remember what was the first thing when he became president? He canceled pipelines. He destroyed our energy infrastructure.”

During his first term, Trump signed executive orders to advance major pipelines, including instructing TransCanada to resubmit its application for a cross-border permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline, which is designed to transport oil from the tar sands of Alberta, Canada to refineries on the Gulf Coast. On his first day in office, Biden revoked the permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline, effectively halting its development.

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Daily Caller

LA Anti-ICE Chaos, Clashes With Police Spreading Around America

Published on June 11, 2025

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Hudson Crozier

The unrest that has consumed Los Angeles in recent days appears to be spreading elsewhere as numerous rioters outraged at immigration raids were arrested across the country on Tuesday night.

Los Angeles authorities began making “mass arrests” late Tuesday and issued a curfew following days of rioting sparked by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests of illegal immigrants in the area. Businesses were seen in the process of boarding up their buildings in anticipation of possible looting, the Daily Caller News Foundation reported.

Local media outlets reported that major U.S. cities saw their own versions of Los Angeles’ chaos Tuesday night, with alleged assaults of police officers, fires, rock-throwing and other acts of violence. Protests and resulting arrests had already started to spread beyond Los Angeles as of Monday night.

Seattle

At least two people were arrested after protesters tore down American flags at a federal building in Seattle and burned them on Tuesday night, according to multiple reports. Earlier that day, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officers were seen on video shoving back Antifa-style militants and firing crowd control munitions after the activists tried to block entrances and exits to the building, which houses an immigration court.

New York City

Eighty-six people were arrested overnight starting on Tuesday evening as protesters marched to a Manhattan immigration court and other locations, local outlet ABC7 reported. Police said people threw bottles at protesters and debris and traffic cones onto the road. Charges included assault, resisting arrest, reckless endangerment and obstructing government administration.

One exchange caught on video showed a woman pleading with protesters to let her drive past them on the road so she could go to work.

Illegal migrants “are having their children taken and their parents,” a traffic-blocking activist told the driver.

Another video posted by Sky News showed a mob trying to force its way past a wall of officers while screaming.

Denver

Protesters began gathering at the Colorado State Capitol building in Denver on Tuesday before moving off in a crowd to block traffic on two streets, Colorado Newsline reported. Police ended up in confrontations with rioters throughout the evening, arresting at least 17 on charges such as obstruction of streets, graffiti, assaulting a peace officer and unlawful throwing of projectiles, according to 9News. Police were reportedly seen throwing smoke bombs and pepper balls to disperse crowds.

Atlanta

Organizers of an anti-ICE rally in Atlanta on Tuesday night had agreed to disperse by 9 p.m., but some protesters remained and set off scuffles with police, a local Fox network reported. Rioters damaged three police squad cars by throwing rocks, police said, and threw fireworks at officers. Police used tear gas to disperse the agitators and arrested at least six.

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