Automotive
The Northvolt Crash and What it Says About the State of the Electric Vehicle Market
From Energy Now
By Jim Warren
Northvolt, a wannabe electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing superstar, based in Sweden filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US on November 21, 2024. In just eight years the company had blown through $15 billion USD in startup capital. Bloomberg says it was one of the most indebted companies to file for bankruptcy in the US in 2024.
Northvolt promised to be everything green transition crusaders could hope for in a company. And it isn’t surprising the “whiz kids” in the Prime Minister’s Office and the environment ministry made sure Canada got in on the action. According to Bloomberg, Canada made pledges amounting to $7.3 billion CAD ($5.4 billion USD) in loans, equity stakes and subsidies for Northvolt.
Canada’s investments included support for the construction of four electric vehicle (EV) battery factories—one in B.C., two in Ontario and one in Quebec. As of today, only a cockeyed optimist could believe those four plants will be churning out batteries any time soon, if ever.
Northvolt was supposed to be a cutting-edge EV battery innovator. It had the cachet of companies claiming to be implementing next-generation technology. When the company was launched in 2016 it was hailed as Europe’s flagship entry into the international race to produce enough non-Chinese batteries to support a widely anticipated boom in electric vehicle demand in Europe and North America.
For eight years Northvolt rode the wave of green propaganda that accompanied government regulations phasing out the production of vehicles with internal combustion engines. The company further endeared itself with environmentalists by claiming it would be at the forefront of development for the mammoth batteries required to back up solar and wind power generation.
The Economist reports that prominent Wall Street players like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase ditched any aversion they might have had for getting into business with governments. They contributed to the $15 billion in startup money. Governments got on the Northvolt band wagon. Northvolt received $5 billion USD in grants from five countries: Canada, the European Union (EU), Poland, Germany and of course Sweden.
Private investors weren’t deterred by the fact governments had “picked a winner.” They actually liked the fact governments were backing Northvolt. They assumed the governments of wealthy countries dedicated to Net Zero by 2050, would patiently nurse Northvolt through its growing pains and back it financially when setbacks arose. Risks would be minimized—success was as close to guaranteed as anyone could hope to expect.
Governments in Europe as well as Canada had been busy implementing policies designed to reduce CO2 emissions and combat climate change. Building EV batteries dovetailed nicely with those goals. It was a virtuous circle of mutually reinforcing virtue signaling.
Around the same time it was becoming fashionable for businesses to adopt the principles of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG). “Progressive” investors including union pension funds required companies they invested in to adopt the goals of environmental sustainability, diversity, equity and inclusion—the core missions of ESG.
Some of Europe’s car makers got behind Northvolt. They wanted to see a vertically integrated European EV industry developed to better withstand competition from cheaper Chinese imports. VW, BMW and Scania AB pre-ordered $50 billon USD worth of Northvolt’s products.
By the fall of 2024, Northvolt already had at least one foot planted on a banana peel. But that didn’t prevent 24 lenders including JPMorgan Chase from throwing it a $5 billion USD lifeline. According to The Economist, this was the biggest “green loan,” ever made in Europe. It apparently wasn’t big enough to prevent the company from filing for Chapter 11 protection.
Odd as it seems in hindsight, private sector investors had embraced a project led by politicians, bureaucrats and research scientists with little to no experience in commercializing their lab experiments. The company’s inability to meet the technical challenges of increasing production to the point of commercial viability was one of the reasons it failed. It turns out it is hard to transform next-generation technology from ideas that work in a test tube into something that makes money.
Ironically, it is car makers from China who are best placed to capitalize on Northvolt’s downfall and dominate Europe’s EV and battery markets. Without tariff support European and North American automakers simply won’t be able to compete with the less expensive government-subsidized Chinese made models.
In 2015 the Chinese government launched its ambitious “Made in China 2025” project. Under the program the government has plowed hundreds of billions into industries that combine digital technology and low emissions technologies. The EV sector was one of the program’s big success stories. Last year, BYD a Chinese manufacturer, overtook Tesla to become the world’s biggest EV producer.
This past November The Economist reported, Chinese auto makers already account for two-thirds of global EV production. They had sold 10 million of them in the previous year. Chinese manufacturers also made 70% of the EV batteries produced globally in 2024. Big investments in factory automation in Chinese EV plants have increased per worker productivity, reducing manufacturing costs.
Government subsidies combined with manufacturing know-how succeeded in creating the world’s most significant EV and EV battery manufacturing industries in China but similar efforts in Europe and North America (e.g. Northvolt) are struggling. It is embarrassing to realize China has become the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter. The West has been left in the dust when it comes to making things like solar panels and EVs.
Europe’s car makers are pressing their governments to limit the number of Chinese made EVs sold in Europe. Yet some EU member states like Germany are reluctant to antagonize China by putting tariffs on its EVs—many German manufacturers rely on access to the Chinese market.
EV sales declined by 5% across Europe in 2024 and high prices for European models are one of the factors responsible for declining sales. Allowing cheaper Chinese EVs into Europe tariff-free should improve EV sales making it more likely that governments’ emissions targets are met. But that makes it more likely that some European car makers will struggle to remain profitable. If large numbers of auto workers are laid off in Europe it will signify the breaking of a major promise made by environmentalists and governments. They have consistently assured people the green transition would create more than enough new green jobs, to make up for job losses in high emissions industries.
The bad news for EV champions extends beyond Europe. Donald Trump has signed an executive order killing federal grants to consumers purchasing electric vehicles. Getting rid of the Biden administration’s EV subsidies should give internal combustion engines a new lease on life. You have to wonder how Trump squared that move with Elon Musk. Perhaps Trump’s promise of tariffs on Chinese goods has been enough to satisfy Tesla. It helps that many EV purchasers in the US prefer big luxury models since the Chinese don’t make too many electric Hummers.
Here in Canada, the Liberal government has said it will cease subsidizing EV purchases as of March 31. It looks more and more like the wheels are coming off the Trudeau-Guilbeault environmental legacy.
While the EV markets in Europe and North America are on shaky ground it is unlikely Northvolt will find the investors required for another last minute bailout. That’s good news for people concerned about Canada’s fiscal health–the Liberals won’t be able to blow any more money on Northvolt if it doesn’t exist.
Things have only gone from bad to worse for the global Electric Vehicle industry. And that’s a problem for Canada, because successive Liberal governments have done everything in their power to hitch our cart to that horse.
Earlier this month, the Trump Administration rolled back more Biden-era regulations that effectively served as a back-door EV mandate in the United States. These rules mandated that all passenger cars be able to travel at least 65.1 miles (and for light trucks, 45.2 miles) per gallon of gasoline or diesel, by the year 2031. Since no Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle could realistically conform to those standards, that would have essentially boxed them out of the market.
Trump’s rolling them back was a fulfillment of his campaign promise to end the Biden Administration’s stealth EV mandates. But it was also a simple recognition of the reality that EVs can’t compete on their own merits.
For proof of that, look no further than our second bit of bad news for EVs: Ford Motor Company has just announced a massive $19.5 billion write-down, almost entirely linked to its aggressive push into EVs. They’ve lost $13 billion on EVs in the past two years alone.
The company invested tens of billions on these go-carts, and lost their shirt when it turned out the market for them was miniscule.
Ford’s EV division president Andrew Frick explained, “Ford is following the customer. We are looking at the market as it is today, not just as everyone predicted it to be five years ago.”
Of course, five years ago, the market was assuming that government subsidies-plus-mandates would create a market for EVs at scale, which hasn’t happened.
As to what this portends for the market, the Wall Street Journal argued, “The company’s pivot from all-electric vehicles is a fresh sign that America’s roadways – after a push to remake them – will continue to look in the near future much like they do today, with a large number of gas-powered cars and trucks and growing use of hybrids.”
And that’s not just true in the U.S. Across the Atlantic, reports suggest the European Union is preparing to delay their own EV mandates to 2040. And the U.K.’s Labour government is considering postponing their own 2030 ICE vehicle ban to align with any EU change in policy.
It’s looking like fewer people around the world will be forced by their governments to buy EVs. Which means that fewer people will be buying EVs.
Now, that is a headache for Canada. Our leaders, at both the federal and provincial levels, have bet big on the success of EVs, investing billions in taxpayer dollars in the hopes of making Canada a major player in the global EV supply chain.
To bolster those investments, Ottawa introduced its Electric Vehicle mandate, requiring 100 per cent of new light-duty vehicle sales to be electric by 2035. This, despite the fact that EVs remain significantly more expensive than gas-and-diesel driven vehicles, they’re poorly suited to Canada’s vast distances and cold climate, and our charging infrastructure is wholly inadequate for a total transition to EVs.
But even if these things weren’t true, there still aren’t enough of us to make the government’s investment make sense. Their entire strategy depends on exporting to foreign markets that are rapidly cooling on EVs.
Collapsing demand south of the border – where the vast majority of the autos we build are sent – means that Canadian EVs will be left without buyers. And postponed (perhaps eventually canceled) mandates in Europe mean that we will be left without a fallback market.
Canadian industry voices are growing louder in their concern. Meanwhile, plants are already idling, scaling back production, or even closing, leaving workers out in the cold.
As GM Canada’s president, Kristian Aquilina, said when announcing her company’s cancellation of the BrightDrop Electric delivery van, “Quite simply, we just have not seen demand for these vehicles climb to the levels that we initially anticipated…. It’s simply a demand and a market-driven response.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney, while sharing much of the same environmental outlook as his predecessor, has already been compelled by economic realities to make a small adjustment – delaying the enforcement of the 2026 EV sales quotas by one year.
But a one-year pause doesn’t solve the problem. It kicks the can down the road.
Mr. Carney must now make a choice. He can double down on this troubled policy, continuing to throw good money after bad, endangering a lot of jobs in our automotive sector, while making transportation more expensive and less reliable for Canadians. Or he can change course: scrap the mandates, end the subsidies, and start putting people and prosperity ahead of ideology.
Here’s hoping he chooses the latter.
The writing is on the wall. Around the world, the forced transition to EVs is crashing into economic reality. If Canada doesn’t wake up soon, we’ll be left holding the bag.
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
I’ve written frequently here in recent years about the financial fiasco that has hit Ford Motor Company and other big U.S. carmakers who made the fateful decision to go in whole hog in 2021 to feed at the federal subsidy trough wrought on the U.S. economy by the Joe Biden autopen presidency. It was crony capitalism writ large, federal rent seeking on the grandest scale in U.S. history, and only now are the chickens coming home to roost.
Ford announced on Monday that it will be forced to take $19.5 billion in special charges as its management team embarks on a corporate reorganization in a desperate attempt to unwind the financial carnage caused by its failed strategies and investments in the electric vehicles space since 2022.
Cancelled is the Ford F-150 Lightning, the full-size electric pickup that few could afford and fewer wanted to buy, along with planned introductions of a second pricey pickup and fully electric vans and commercial vehicles. Ford will apparently keep making its costly Mustang Mach-E EV while adjusting the car’s features and price to try to make it more competitive. There will be a shift to making more hybrid models and introducing new lines of cheaper EVs and what the company calls “extended range electric vehicles,” or EREVs, which attach a gas-fueled generator to recharge the EV batteries while the car is being driven.
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“The $50k, $60k, $70k EVs just weren’t selling; We’re following customers to where the market is,” Farley said. “We’re going to build up our whole lineup of hybrids. It’s gonna be better for the company’s profitability, shareholders and a lot of new American jobs. These really expensive $70k electric trucks, as much as I love the product, they didn’t make sense. But an EREV that goes 700 miles on a tank of gas, for 90% of the time is all-electric, that EREV is a better solution for a Lightning than the current all-electric Lightning.”
It all makes sense to Mr. Farley, but one wonders how much longer the company’s investors will tolerate his presence atop the corporate management pyramid if the company’s financial fortunes don’t turn around fast.
To Ford’s and Farley’s credit, the company has, unlike some of its competitors (GM, for example), been quite transparent in publicly revealing the massive losses it has accumulated in its EV projects since 2022. The company has reported its EV enterprise as a separate business unit called Model-E on its financial filings, enabling everyone to witness its somewhat amazing escalating EV-related losses since 2022:
• 2022 – Net loss of $2.2 billion
• 2023 – Net loss of $4.7 billion
• 2024 – Net loss of $5.1 billion
Add in the company’s $3.6 billion in losses recorded across the first three quarters of 2025, and you arrive at a total of $15.6 billion net losses on EV-related projects and processes in less than four calendar years. Add to that the financial carnage detailed in Monday’s announcement and the damage from the company’s financial electric boogaloo escalates to well above $30 billion with Q4 2025’s damage still to be added to the total.
Ford and Farley have benefited from the fact that the company’s lineup of gas-and-diesel powered cars have remained strongly profitable, resulting in overall corporate profits each year despite the huge EV-related losses. It is also fair to point out that all car companies were under heavy pressure from the Biden government to either produce battery electric vehicles or be penalized by onerous federal regulations.
Now, with the Trump administration rescinding Biden’s harsh mandates and canceling the absurdly unattainable fleet mileage requirements, Ford and other companies will be free to make cars Americans actually want to buy. Better late than never, as they say, but the financial fallout from it all is likely just beginning to be made public.
- David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.
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