Business
Spending restraint: Roadmap to a balanced budget

From the Fraser Institute
A Case for Spending Restraint: How the Federal Government Can Balance the Budget
By Grady Munro and Jake Fuss
Since 2015, there has been a deterioration in the federal government’s fiscal situation. Annual
nominal program spending has increased an estimated $193.6 billion since 2014/15; adjusted for
inflation and population growth this represents an extra $2,330 per person. Prior to the COVID
pandemic, spending increased faster than population, inflation, and other relevant economic
indicators. These spending increases have resulted in a string of large budgetary deficits that have
contributed to an estimated $941.9 billion increase in gross federal debt from 2014/15 to 2023/24.
This accumulation of debt, along with recent hikes in interest rates, has raised the cost of interest
on the federal debt to one of the largest budget expense items.
Moving forward, the federal government plans to slow nominal spending growth, which will keep inflation-adjusted, per-person spending relatively constant to 2026/27. Despite this, the federal government will continue running budget deficits and accumulating debt. It is also uncertain whether the federal government’s current estimates are truly reliable as the estimates do not incorporate expected spending on pharmacare or the level of defence spending to meet Canada’s NATO commitment. Moreover, the federal government’s track record of exceeding previous spending commitments calls into question the reliability of the current spending targets. Therefore, it is clear the federal government is not implementing the level of spending restraint necessary to reverse course towards a stable fiscal situation.
An approach to federal finances that continues to run budget deficits and accumulate debt is economically harmful to both current and future generations of Canadians. Research shows that significant increases in debt-financed spending harm economic growth by reducing capital accumulation and labour productivity.
Furthermore, accumulating debt today increases the tax burden on future generations of Canadians, as they will be responsible for paying off this debt. Despite these effects, the federal government plans to continue running deficits and accumulating debt for the foreseeable future.
This need not be the case. The federal government can undertake decisive spending reform starting in 2024— similar to the reform by the Chrétien government in the 1990s—that balances the budget within a year or two. The federal government could balance the budget in 2026/27 by limiting annual growth in nominal program spending to 0.3% for two years. This would result in a 5.9% reduction in real per-person spending. Alternatively, the budget could be balanced in 2025/26 if the federal government reduces spending 4.3% for one year; the next year, 2026/27, would see a budgetary surplus. In this scenario, inflation-adjusted per-person spending would decline by 7.5%. Key trade-offs between the two approaches include the extent of the spending reform and the speed of the return to balanced budgets. Balancing the budget in one year, as opposed to two years, would
result in $30.0 billion less debt accumulated by 2026/27.
Though it is beyond the scope of this study to discuss how such spending reforms should be implemented, there are three areas that might be considered for reform. Business subsidies are a significant expense, yet research suggests they have little if any economic benefit, and may actually harm economic growth when governments pick winners and losers in a free market. Reviewing business subsidies might provide opportunities to find savings. Aligning government-sector wages
with those in the private sector would also provide savings, as government workers in Canada currently enjoy an 8.5% wage premium (on average) relative to comparable private-sector workers. Finally, studies show that government fiscal waste can be significant. From 1988 to 2013, more than 600 government failures cost the federal government between $158.3 billion and $197.1 billion. Moreover, more than 25% of all federal COVID spending was wasteful. Addressing inefficiencies within government might also reveal savings.
- Canada has seen a deterioration in the federal government’s fiscal situation since 2015. A distinct lack of spending restraint has resulted in a string of large budget deficits, which have contributed to rising government debt and debt interest costs.
- Despite current fiscal plans promising more of the same, the federal government could implement decisive spending reform starting in 2024/25, similar to reforms implemented in the 1990s, and balance the budget within one or two years.
- To balance the budget by 2026/27, the federal government would need to limit growth in annual nominal program spending to 0.3 percent for two years. This would translate to a 5.9 percent reduction in inflation-adjusted, per-person spending.
- Alternatively, the federal government could balance the budget in one year, by 2025/26, by reducing nominal program spending by 4.3 percent. Adjusted for inflation and population, this would be a 7.5 percent decrease. In 2026/27, the federal government could then record a $8.2 billion surplus even while increasing spending from the previous year.
- While this study does not provide an in-depth analysis of where potential savings should be found, research highlights three potential areas that could be targeted for spending reform: corporate welfare, aligning government-sector wages with those in the private sector, or eliminating government fiscal waste.
A Case for Spending Restraint in Canada: How the Federal Government Can Balance the Budget
Authors:
Business
Breaking: Explosive FBI Warning—CCP, Iran, and Mex-Cartels Partnering in Canada to Move Fentanyl and Terrorists Into U.S.

Sam Cooper
Patel’s warning echoes The Bureau’s exclusive reporting on a criminal convergence linking CCP-backed chemical suppliers, Iranian proxies, and Mexican cartels operating through Vancouver superlabs
In an explosive Sunday interview that will place tremendous pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new Liberal government, FBI Director Kash Patel alleged that Mexican cartels, Chinese Communist Party operatives, and Iranian threat actors have forged a new axis of criminal cooperation, using Canada’s porous northern border and the Port of Vancouver—not the southern Mexican border—as their preferred entry point to flood fentanyl and terror suspects into the United States.
“In the first two, three months that we’ve been in the seat under Donald Trump’s administration, he has sealed the border,” Patel told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo. “He has stopped border crossings. So where’s all the fentanyl coming from? Still? Where’s the trafficking coming from still? Where are all the narco traffickers going to keep bringing this stuff into the country? The northern border. Our adversaries have partnered up with the CCP and others—Russia, Iran—on a variety of different criminal enterprises. And they’re going and they’re sailing around to Vancouver and coming in by air.”
Patel asserted that adversarial regimes—including Beijing and Tehran—are now working in tandem on “a variety of different criminal enterprises,” and exploiting what he called the “sheer tyranny of distance” on America’s northern frontier, where vast terrain and lax enforcement in Canada have allegedly enabled fentanyl pipelines and terrorist infiltration.
Pointing directly at Carney’s government, Patel continued:
“Now we’re focused on it and we’re calling our state and local law enforcement partners up [at the northern border]. But you know, who has to get to step in is Canada—because they’re making it up there and shipping it down here.”
The FBI director’s warning—posted on the White House’s X account— follows exclusive reporting by The Bureau and a newly released 2025 threat assessment from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, which, for the first time, officially flags Canada as an emerging threat node in the North American drug supply chain.
As The Bureau reported earlier this week, the DEA highlighted the dismantling of a fentanyl “super laboratory” in October 2024 in Falkland, British Columbia—a mountainous corridor between Vancouver and Calgary—as an emerging threat in fentanyl trafficking targeting the United States. Sources pointed to the same converged threat network—China, Iran, and Mexico—mentioned today by FBI Director Kash Patel.
“According to these sources,” The Bureau reported Friday, “the site forms part of a broader criminal convergence involving Chinese, Mexican, and Iranian networks operating across British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. The Bureau’s sources indicate that the Falkland facility was connected to Chinese chemical exporters sanctioned by the United States Treasury, Iranian threat actors, and operatives from Mexican drug cartels.”
In his remarks today, Patel appeared to directly link this criminal convergence to terrorist infiltration.
“And I’ll give you a statistic that I gave to Congress that nobody was paying attention to,” Patel added. “Over 300 known or suspected terrorists crossed into this country last year, illegally… 85 percent of them came in through the northern border.”
Patel also appeared to turn up the political pressure on Ottawa, alluding to President Trump’s recent controversial statements about Canada—which became a flashpoint in the federal election, with many voters embracing the Liberal Party’s campaign framing Carney as a bulwark against Trump.
“I don’t care about getting into this debate about making someone the 51st state or not,” Patel said, referencing Trump’s remarks. “But [Canada] are a partner in the north. And say what you want about Mexico—but they helped us seal the southern border. But facts speak for themselves. It’s the [northern] border that’s open.”
The Bureau will continue to follow this story in the coming week.
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Automotive
Tesla stock soars for fourth straight week on Musk Play plan, board shake-up

MxM News
Quick Hit:
Tesla shares surged more than 16% this week, notching a fourth consecutive week of gains and cutting into steep year-to-date losses. The rally is fueled by news of a potential new pay package for Elon Musk and the strategic addition of Jack Hartung, Chipotle’s outgoing president, to Tesla’s board. These developments come amid rising scrutiny over the board’s governance and compensation decisions, especially concerning Musk’s controversial $56 billion pay package from 2018.
Key Details:
- Tesla stock has gained over 16% this week and is now down just 13% for the year, recovering from a 40% loss earlier in 2025.
- Jack Hartung, Chipotle’s president, will join Tesla’s board on June 1, bringing seasoned business leadership.
- A special Tesla board committee is evaluating a new compensation plan for Musk after legal challenges to his previous $56 billion package.
Diving Deeper:
Tesla’s stock (TSLA) closed the week strong at $349.98, climbing 2.09% on Friday alone and marking a fourth straight week of gains. This momentum has helped the electric vehicle maker erase much of its earlier 2025 losses, which had topped 40% at one point. Now down just 13% year-to-date, the turnaround comes as investors digest two pivotal developments that could shape Tesla’s future leadership and direction.
The most immediate catalyst: Tesla’s announcement that Jack Hartung, the president of Chipotle Mexican Grill, will join its board of directors beginning June 1. Hartung will also serve on the audit committee, a significant appointment given Tesla’s board has been under fire for lack of independence and weak oversight of CEO Elon Musk. Hartung brings executive experience from not only Chipotle but also board roles at Portillo’s, the Honest Company, and ZocDoc—credentials that could help restore confidence in Tesla’s boardroom governance.
Hartung’s addition follows the bombshell report from the Financial Times earlier this week that Tesla’s board has formed a special committee to explore a new pay package for Elon Musk. The committee’s task is to find “alternative ways” to reward Musk for past work in case Tesla fails to reinstate the original 2018 compensation deal, which is now under appeal with the Delaware Supreme Court. That deal—valued at $56 billion—has drawn fire from large shareholders, prompting broader questions about Musk’s influence over Tesla and whether the board has effectively served as a rubber stamp for his ambitions.
Critics have warned that Musk’s threat to redirect his artificial intelligence efforts away from Tesla unless he is granted additional stock options represents an outsized concentration of power in the hands of one individual. While Musk continues to be the face of the company’s innovation and success, these governance concerns have given activist investors and institutional shareholders new ammunition.
Tesla board chair Robyn Denholm has also come under scrutiny, particularly after Wall Street Journal reporting suggested the board was considering replacing Musk or had urged him to spend more time at the company. Denholm has publicly denied those claims, but her own record—cashing out more than half a billion dollars in Tesla stock since joining the board in 2014—hasn’t helped stem criticism. In fact, the board recently had to settle a lawsuit over excessive director compensation, refunding millions of dollars to shareholders.
Despite these governance challenges, the market has responded positively to the board’s recent moves, seeing them as steps toward restoring stability and investor confidence. The addition of Hartung and the new pay committee could signal a willingness to address long-standing concerns about independence and oversight, even as Musk remains firmly at the center of Tesla’s orbit.
For now, investors appear to be betting that a more disciplined board—paired with a still-charismatic and high-impact CEO—could be a recipe for renewed growth and focus.
‘Elon Musk introducing the Model X” by Steve Jurvetson licensed under (CC BY-SA 2.0)
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