This was the opening splash for a video clip posted by the Alberta energy minister on social media. Two days later, its power output at noon was barely 11 per cent. YouTube/Canadian Energy Centre

From PipelineOnline.ca

And wind was doing even worse

Even though Alberta’s build-out of 38 wind farms and 36 solar farms have resulted in an enormous growth of nameplate power generating capacity, the reality was far from the advertised on Sunday, according to data from the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO).

Despite the noon hour being defined as the sun being at its highest point in the sky, Alberta’s grid-scale solar facilities were having a tough day on Oct. 22. At 11:53 a.m., solar was producing 152 megawatts out of an installed base of 1,292 megawatts. That was 11.8 per cent of capacity. On a good day, that number is closer to 1,000 megawatts around noon.

It wasn’t hard to figure out why solar hand tanked. A belt of heavy clouds, visible from Environment and Climate Change Canada satellite imagery, blanketed the principle solar power production region of southern Alberta.

Travers, the largest solar facility in Canada with a rated capacity of 465 megawatts and having cost $700 million, was producing 51 megawatts a few minutes before noon. That was 10.9 per cent. Ironically, Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean had posted on LinkedIn on Oct. 20, “Did you know Alberta is home to Canada’s largest solar farm? Once we set clear rules around land use, reclamation and transmission, we’ll get back to work leading Canada and the world on renewable electricity. I’m proud of our energy workers. Check out this incredible clip 👇”

That 22 second video clip was originally posted by the Canadian Energy Centre, the Alberta government’s “war room,” whose mission is to set the record straight, as it were. “The Canadian Energy Centre’s mandate is to promote Canada as the supplier of choice for the world’s growing demand for responsibly produced energy,” says the Centre’s mandate.

Wind peters out

And wind power production was having an even worse day, with wind power plummeting as the morning turned into afternoon. By that time, wind was generating just 67 megawatts out of an installed based of 3,853 megawatts. That’s just 1.7 per cent of nameplate capacity.

So at that moment, combined wind and solar were producing 219 megawatts out of a nameplate capacity of 5,145, or 4.3 per cent of capacity.

Alberta’s final remaining coal-fired power facility was producing 802 of 820 megawatts of nameplate capacity, or 97.8 per cent. And its power output was 3.7 times the total output of all grid-scale wind and solar across Alberta, from 36 solar farms and 38 wind facilities, composed of hundreds of turbines and costing billions of dollars. As noted above, Travers, alone, cost $700 million and covers 3,330 acres with 1.3 million solar panels.

That last remaining coal plant, the Genesee Power Station, will soon be converted to natural gas, meaning an end to coal-fired power generation in Alberta – a province whose coal reserves run from Edmonton southwest to the BC and US borders.

The wind situation stayed much the same throughout the afternoon, and by 4:18, solar had dropped to 69 megawatts and wind was just 83 megawatts.

And near the supper hour, X bot account @ReliableAB noted AESO data showing wind was producing 86 megawatts and solar was producing 28 megawatts. At that moment, fossil fuels, principally natural gas, accounted 94.3 per cent of Alberta’s electricity. Alberta was getting 345 megawatts of power from imports, and batteries were contributing zero megawatts.

At this moment 94.3% of Alberta's electricity is being produced by fossil fuels. Wind is at 2.2% of capacity and producing 0.9% of total generation, while solar is at 2.2% of capacity and producing 0.29% of total generation. At the same time we are importing 345 MW or 3% pic.twitter.com/3gCrbqKvaI

— Reliable AB Energy (@ReliableAB) October 22, 2023

That 94.3 per cent is significant, because the federal government’s clean electricity regulations will require “unabated” fossil fuel power generation to shut down by 2035, with the exception that unabated natural gas generation could be used for up to 450 hours per year, per generator. As Premier Danielle Smith has pointed out, those hours would have been used up by the end of January in the calendar year of 2023, meaning by this time of year, Alberta’s grid, if those regulations were followed to the letter, would effectively be in almost total blackout. And to compound the situation, not only does the federal government expect provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan to replace all that power generation in 11 years, two months and nine days, but also be on the path of increasing total power generation by a factor of 2.5x in 26 years, two months and nine days.