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Oil producers brace for market share battle

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This article supplied by Troy Media.

Troy Media By Rashid Husain Syed

OPEC+ launches a crude oil price war, and everyone will feel the pain

The gloves are off. OPEC+—the alliance of major oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia —has abandoned its price-support strategy. Instead, it’s flooding the market to punish overproducers and claw back market share, regardless of the consequences.

For three consecutive months, despite falling prices, OPEC+ has ramped up output, bringing back 1.37 million barrels per day to the market. Until recently, it had withheld 5.3 million barrels per day—about five per cent of global supply—to stabilize prices. But that restraint is vanishing fast. The group is now rolling back voluntary cuts at high speed, opening the taps just as global markets are showing signs of oversupply.

Geopolitical developments are adding fuel to the fire. A possible breakthrough between Iran and the United States could put even more crude back into circulation. Meanwhile, Russia continues to find ways to move oil despite sanctions.

On top of that, U.S. production hit an all-time high in March at 13.499 million barrels per day, surpassing the previous record set just months earlier. Shale producers in the Permian and Gulf Coast regions continue to churn out oil, even as drilling slows elsewhere.

This rising tide of supply spells trouble for all producers, but it presents a unique challenge for jurisdictions like Canada, where oil sands production is a major driver of jobs, investment and government revenue.

Oil sands projects require massive upfront capital and long lead times, making new investments harder to justify in a weak price environment. Yet once built, these operations are remarkably resilient, with low ongoing costs and long production lifespans.

Major Canadian producers like Canadian Natural Resources can remain profitable even when West Texas Intermediate—a key oil price benchmark—falls into the low-to-mid US$40s. That long-term efficiency offers a structural advantage over U.S. shale, which depends on constant reinvestment. Still, prolonged low prices can stall future oil sands development and weigh on government budgets.

Meanwhile, demand is faltering. U.S. consumption dropped to its lowest level in a year, with total petroleum products supplied falling to 19.95 million barrels per day, a red ag for refiners heading into the crucial summer driving season.

Hopes that India might offset global demand weakness are fading. While its economy is growing, “India’s volumes aren’t anywhere near the Chinese boom in consumption that began in the early 2000s,” wrote Tsvetana Paraskova in Oilprice.com. Those who expected India to be the “next China” are in for disappointment. Between 2000 and 2025, Chinese crude demand growth averaged 485,000 barrels per day, noted Bloomberg opinion columnist Javier Blas. In contrast, India’s crude demand growth is just around 200,000 barrels per day annually, less than half of China’s booming growth during the 2000s and 2010s.

This growing mismatch between surging supply and tepid demand is already taking its toll. Brent price forecasts have been revised downward for the third straight month. Analysts now expect it to average just US$66.98 in 2025. U.S. crude is forecast to average US$63.35. These are bleak numbers for producers across the board.

As Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon puts it, “Three strikes from OPEC+, and none were softballs. May warned, June confirmed, and July fires a shot across the bow.” The message is clear: OPEC+ is done playing nice.

This is a direct challenge to North American shale and high-cost producers like Canada. With the market saturated and demand falling short, the price pressure is mounting. Unless producers adapt quickly, they’re in for a punishing stretch.

The global oil market is being reshaped in real time, and the consequences will be felt in boardrooms and across national economies.

Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters. 

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support  local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.

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U.S. Supreme Court frosty on Trump’s tariff power as world watches

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From The Center Square

By

The U.S. Supreme Court gave President Donald Trump’s tariff authority a chilly reception on Wednesday, with his economic agenda hanging in the balance and businesses and consumers watching for higher prices.

After the president spent months talking about how much money his tariffs would generate, Trump’s Solicitor General D. John Sauer told the nation’s highest court Wednesday that the import duties are solely focused on regulation, not raising revenue.

Even the conservative wing of the Supreme Court was skeptical.

“The vehicle is imposition of taxes on Americans. That has always been the core power of Congress,” Chief Justice John Roberts said.

Robert’s remark came early in the hearing, which was slated for 80 minutes, but ran almost three hours.

“The justification is being used for the power to impose tariffs on any product, from any country, for any amount, for any length of time,” Roberts said. “I’m not suggesting it’s not there, but it does seem like that’s major authority.”

Twelve states, five small businesses and two Illinois-based toymakers have challenged Trump’s authority to impose tariffs under a 1977 law without Congressional approval. That law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, doesn’t mention the word “tariff” and has never been used to impose tariffs. Trump’s legal team argues that the law is a clear delegation of emergency power, granting the president broad authority to act in times of crisis.

Phillip Magness, a senior fellow at the Independent Institute, said the justices showed they had reservations about Trump’s claimed power under the law, frequently called IEEPA.

“It’s always hard to predict from questions, but it was clear to me that several of the justices were not buying the arguments of Trump’s attorney John Sauer – particularly his claim that tariffs are regulations and not taxes,” he told The Center Square.

Justices also shot difficult questions to the attorneys representing the states and small businesses that are challenging the tariffs.

Justice Samuel Alito asked Neal Katyal, the attorney representing the small businesses, if Congress had given the president power to regulate admission to a national park, would that also grant the president the power to charge an entrance fee. Katyal said the president could charge an entrance fee so long as the fee was not intended to raise revenue. Alito also had sharp questions for Katyal on other issues.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett posed a stickier question to Katyal and Oregon Solicitor General Ben Gutman, who is representing the 12 states that challenged Trump’s tariff authority. Barrett asked if the International Emergency Economic Powers Act gives the president the power to block all imports, why would it not grant the seemingly lesser authority of allowing the president to impose a tariff on all imports. Several other justices piled on with variations of this questions, including Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Kavanaugh asked Gutman if that would leave a “doughnut hole,” as the government put it. Gutman said it was about protecting taxpayers.

“It’s not a doughnut hole, it’s a different type of pastry,” he replied, saying that when the government can reach into the pocketbooks of the people, the stakes are higher, which is why the Constitution gave taxation power to Congress and not the president.

Cato Legal Fellow Brent Skorup said “most justices appeared attentive to the risks of deferring to a president’s interpretation of an ambiguous statute and the executive branch, ‘discovering’ new powers in old statutes.”

“The government’s reading of IEEPA not only stretches the text beyond recognition, but it also threatens the separation-of-powers principles central to our constitutional design,” he said.

Magness said he sees a path for Trump to win, but not much of one.

“The Trump administration went all-in on its claim that tariffs are not taxes, but rather regulations. I believe that they did so because they see this as the only path to victory since the court has historically given more leeway to presidents in the foreign policy arena,” he told The Center Square. “I think the administration has a difficult path ahead, given how poorly their argument about tariffs not being a tax was received. Their best remaining argument is to hope that some justices grant them expansive foreign policy leeway in spite of the clear domestic tax policy implications. That path appears to have narrowed quite a bit in today’s hearing.”

Trump has said the future of America is on the line.

“Tomorrow’s United States Supreme Court case is, literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country,” Trump said Tuesday afternoon in a social media post. “With a Victory, we have tremendous, but fair, Financial and National Security. Without it, we are virtually defenseless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us.”

For Alex Jacobsen, a second-generation family business owner in Nashville, Tenn., who makes the speakers used to record Michael Jackson’s “Thriller” album, the problem has never been with the tariffs.

“It’s how they’re implemented, without any due process, without any Congress or input from the public,” he told The Center Square ahead of arguments.

The court is expected to hand down a decision by the end of June if not sooner.

Last week, the U.S. Senate narrowly voted to end the national emergency Trump used to impose global tariffs. Four Republicans joined Democrats in the effort, which is largely symbolic because the U.S. House has agreed not to take up the issue until March.

In August, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit affirmed a previous lower court ruling saying Trump did not have the authority, but said Trump’s tariffs could remain in place while the administration appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court. In the 7-4 decision, the majority of the Federal Circuit said that tariff authority rests with Congress.

An August report, from the Congressional Budget Office, estimated tariffs could bring in $4 trillion over the next decade. That CBO report came with caveats and noted that tariffs will raise consumer prices and reduce the purchasing power of U.S. families.

Trump has said he wants to use tariffs to restore manufacturing jobs lost to lower-wage countries in decades past, shift the tax burden away from U.S. families and pay down the national debt. Economists, businesses and some public companies have warned that tariffs will raise prices on a wide range of consumer products.

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Carney’s budget spares tax status of Canadian churches, pro-life groups after backlash

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From LifeSiteNews

By Clare Marie Merkowsky

Canadian pro-life charities and churches retain their tax-exempt status in the 2025-26 budget, a reversal attributed to public and political opposition to earlier proposals.

Canadian pro-life charities and churches will not lose their tax exemption under the Liberal Party’s newly presented fall budget despite earlier threats.

On November 4, Liberal Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presented the Canadian federal budget for Fiscal Year 2025-26 in the House of Commons that included no mention of stripping pro-life organizations and churches of their tax exemption.

“Campaign Life Coalition is breathing a sigh of relief that churches and pro-life organizations were not stripped of their charitable status in the (Mark) Carney Liberal budget released today,” Campaign Life Coalition (CLC) communications director Pete Baklinski said in a statement sent to LifeSiteNews.

As LifeSiteNews previously reported, before last Christmas, a proposal by the all-party Finance Committee suggested legislation that could strip pro-life pregnancy centers and religious groups of their charitable status.

The legislation would amend the Income Tax Act and Income Tax. Section 429 of the proposed legislation recommends the government “no longer provide charitable status to anti-abortion organizations.”

The bill, according to the finance department, would require “registered charities that provide services, advice, or information in respect of the prevention, preservation, or termination of pregnancy (i.e., destroying the unborn)” to disclose that they “do not provide specific services, including abortions or birth control.”

Similarly, Recommendation 430 aims to “amend the Income Tax Act to provide a definition of a charity which would remove the privileged status of ‘advancement of religion’ as a charitable purpose.”

Canadians quickly responded to the recommendations, warning that it would mean the end of many pro-life organizations and the vital work that they do to help mothers in need.

Likewise, Conservative MPs and clergy alike condemned the suggestion to tax churches that provide essential services to Canadians.

“This is a victory for religious freedom and for the Canadian values of helping the vulnerable, offering a compassionate hand, and being present to those in crisis,” he declared.

“The Liberal government was right to listen to ordinary citizens and faith leaders and ultimately reject these outrageous recommendations,” Gunnarson continued. “Thanks be to God, Canada lives to see another day without a dark cloud of persecution hanging over religious and pro-life organizations.”

 

“This victory belongs to the concerned citizens across Canada who took the time to sign a petition or write a letter to their MP or the Finance Minister,” he said. “This proves that when enough people speak out, good things can happen.”

Currently, the budget is under Parliamentary review, as Liberals lack sufficient votes to pass the legislation. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has declared that his party will not support the budget. The Bloc Québécois have also pledged opposition and the New Democratic Party (NDP) is considering supporting the budget.

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