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Oil producers brace for market share battle

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This article supplied by Troy Media.

Troy Media By Rashid Husain Syed

OPEC+ launches a crude oil price war, and everyone will feel the pain

The gloves are off. OPEC+—the alliance of major oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia —has abandoned its price-support strategy. Instead, it’s flooding the market to punish overproducers and claw back market share, regardless of the consequences.

For three consecutive months, despite falling prices, OPEC+ has ramped up output, bringing back 1.37 million barrels per day to the market. Until recently, it had withheld 5.3 million barrels per day—about five per cent of global supply—to stabilize prices. But that restraint is vanishing fast. The group is now rolling back voluntary cuts at high speed, opening the taps just as global markets are showing signs of oversupply.

Geopolitical developments are adding fuel to the fire. A possible breakthrough between Iran and the United States could put even more crude back into circulation. Meanwhile, Russia continues to find ways to move oil despite sanctions.

On top of that, U.S. production hit an all-time high in March at 13.499 million barrels per day, surpassing the previous record set just months earlier. Shale producers in the Permian and Gulf Coast regions continue to churn out oil, even as drilling slows elsewhere.

This rising tide of supply spells trouble for all producers, but it presents a unique challenge for jurisdictions like Canada, where oil sands production is a major driver of jobs, investment and government revenue.

Oil sands projects require massive upfront capital and long lead times, making new investments harder to justify in a weak price environment. Yet once built, these operations are remarkably resilient, with low ongoing costs and long production lifespans.

Major Canadian producers like Canadian Natural Resources can remain profitable even when West Texas Intermediate—a key oil price benchmark—falls into the low-to-mid US$40s. That long-term efficiency offers a structural advantage over U.S. shale, which depends on constant reinvestment. Still, prolonged low prices can stall future oil sands development and weigh on government budgets.

Meanwhile, demand is faltering. U.S. consumption dropped to its lowest level in a year, with total petroleum products supplied falling to 19.95 million barrels per day, a red ag for refiners heading into the crucial summer driving season.

Hopes that India might offset global demand weakness are fading. While its economy is growing, “India’s volumes aren’t anywhere near the Chinese boom in consumption that began in the early 2000s,” wrote Tsvetana Paraskova in Oilprice.com. Those who expected India to be the “next China” are in for disappointment. Between 2000 and 2025, Chinese crude demand growth averaged 485,000 barrels per day, noted Bloomberg opinion columnist Javier Blas. In contrast, India’s crude demand growth is just around 200,000 barrels per day annually, less than half of China’s booming growth during the 2000s and 2010s.

This growing mismatch between surging supply and tepid demand is already taking its toll. Brent price forecasts have been revised downward for the third straight month. Analysts now expect it to average just US$66.98 in 2025. U.S. crude is forecast to average US$63.35. These are bleak numbers for producers across the board.

As Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon puts it, “Three strikes from OPEC+, and none were softballs. May warned, June confirmed, and July fires a shot across the bow.” The message is clear: OPEC+ is done playing nice.

This is a direct challenge to North American shale and high-cost producers like Canada. With the market saturated and demand falling short, the price pressure is mounting. Unless producers adapt quickly, they’re in for a punishing stretch.

The global oil market is being reshaped in real time, and the consequences will be felt in boardrooms and across national economies.

Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters. 

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support  local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.

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Mark Carney’s Fiscal Fantasy Will Bankrupt Canada

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By Gwyn Morgan

Mark Carney was supposed to be the adult in the room. After nearly a decade of runaway spending under Justin Trudeau, the former central banker was presented to Canadians as a steady hand – someone who could responsibly manage the economy and restore fiscal discipline.

Instead, Carney has taken Trudeau’s recklessness and dialled it up. His government’s recently released spending plan shows an increase of 8.5 percent this fiscal year to $437.8 billion. Add in “non-budgetary spending” such as EI payouts, plus at least $49 billion just to service the burgeoning national debt and total spending in Carney’s first year in office will hit $554.5 billion.

Even if tax revenues were to remain level with last year – and they almost certainly won’t given the tariff wars ravaging Canadian industry – we are hurtling toward a deficit that could easily exceed 3 percent of GDP, and thus dwarf our meagre annual economic growth. It will only get worse. The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates debt interest alone will consume $70 billion annually by 2029. Fitch Ratings recently warned of Canada’s “rapid and steep fiscal deterioration”, noting that if the Liberal program is implemented total federal, provincial and local debt would rise to 90 percent of GDP.

This was already a fiscal powder keg. But then Carney casually tossed in a lit match. At June’s NATO summit, he pledged to raise defence spending to 2 percent of GDP this fiscal year – to roughly $62 billion. Days later, he stunned even his own caucus by promising to match NATO’s new 5 percent target. If he and his Liberal colleagues follow through, Canada’s defence spending will balloon to the current annual equivalent of $155 billion per year. There is no plan to pay for this. It will all go on the national credit card.

This is not “responsible government.” It is economic madness.

And it’s happening amid broader economic decline. Business investment per worker – a key driver of productivity and living standards – has been shrinking since 2015. The C.D. Howe Institute warns that Canadian workers are increasingly “underequipped compared to their peers abroad,” making us less competitive and less prosperous.

The problem isn’t a lack of money; it’s a lack of discipline and vision. We’ve created a business climate that punishes investment: high taxes, sluggish regulatory processes, and politically motivated uncertainty. Carney has done nothing to reverse this. If anything, he’s making the situation worse.

Recall the 2008 global financial meltdown. Carney loves to highlight his role as Bank of Canada Governor during that time but the true credit for steering the country through the crisis belongs to then-prime minister Stephen Harper and his finance minister, Jim Flaherty. Facing the pressures of a minority Parliament, they made the tough decisions that safeguarded Canada’s fiscal foundation. Their disciplined governance is something Carney would do well to emulate.

Instead, he’s tearing down that legacy. His recent $4.3 billion aid pledge to Ukraine, made without parliamentary approval, exemplifies his careless approach. And his self-proclaimed image as the experienced technocrat who could go eyeball-to-eyeball against Trump is starting to crack. Instead of respecting Carney, Trump is almost toying with him, announcing in June, for example that the U.S. would pull out of the much-ballyhooed bilateral trade talks launched at the G7 Summit less than two weeks earlier.

Ordinary Canadians will foot the bill for Carney’s fiscal mess. The dollar has weakened. Young Canadians – already priced out of the housing market – will inherit a mountain of debt. This is not stewardship. It’s generational theft.

Some still believe Carney will pivot – that he will eventually govern sensibly. But nothing in his actions supports that hope. A leader serious about economic renewal would cancel wasteful Trudeau-era programs, streamline approvals for energy and resource projects, and offer incentives for capital investment. Instead, we’re getting more borrowing and ideological showmanship.

It’s no longer credible to say Carney is better than Trudeau. He’s worse. Trudeau at least pretended deficits were temporary. Carney has made them permanent – and more dangerous.

This is a betrayal of the fiscal stability Canadians were promised. If we care about our credit rating, our standard of living, or the future we are leaving our children, we must change course.

That begins by removing a government unwilling – or unable – to do the job.

Canada once set an economic example for others. Those days are gone. The warning signs – soaring debt, declining productivity, and diminished global standing – are everywhere. Carney’s defenders may still hope he can grow into the job. Canada cannot afford to wait and find out.

The original, full-length version of this article was recently published in C2C Journal.

Gwyn Morgan is a retired business leader who was a director of five global corporations.

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Carney Liberals quietly award Pfizer, Moderna nearly $400 million for new COVID shot contracts

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From LifeSiteNews

By Clare Marie Merkowsky

Carney’s Liberal government signed nearly $400 million in contracts with Pfizer and Moderna for COVID shots, despite halted booster programs and ongoing delays in compensating Canadians for jab injuries.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has awarded Pfizer and Moderna nearly $400 million in new COVID shot contracts.

On June 30th, the Liberal government quietly signed nearly $400 million contracts with vaccine companies Pfizer and Moderna for COVID jabs, despite thousands of Canadians waiting to receive compensation for COVID shot injuries.

The contracts, published on the Government of Canada website, run from June 30, 2025, until March 31, 2026. Under the contracts, taxpayers must pay $199,907,418.00 to both companies for their COVID shots.

Notably, there have been no press releases regarding the contracts on the Government of Canada website nor from Carney’s official office.

Additionally, the contracts were signed after most Canadians provinces halted their COVID booster shot programs. At the same time, many Canadians are still waiting to receive compensation from COVID shot injuries.

Canada’s Vaccine Injury Support Program (VISP) was launched in December 2020 after the Canadian government gave vaccine makers a shield from liability regarding COVID-19 jab-related injuries.

There has been a total of 3,317 claims received, of which only 234 have received payments. In December, the Canadian Department of Health warned that COVID shot injury payouts will exceed the $75 million budget.

The December memo is the last public update that Canadians have received regarding the cost of the program. However, private investigations have revealed that much of the funding is going in the pockets of administrators, not injured Canadians.

A July report by Global News discovered that Oxaro Inc., the consulting company overseeing the VISP, has received $50.6 million. Of that fund, $33.7 million has been spent on administrative costs, compared to only $16.9 million going to vaccine injured Canadians.

The PHAC’s downplaying of jab injuries is of little surprise to Canadians, as a 2023 secret memo revealed that the federal government purposefully hid adverse effect so as not to alarm Canadians.

The secret memo from former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Privy Council Office noted that COVID jab injuries and even deaths “have the potential to shake public confidence.”

“Adverse effects following immunization, news reports and the government’s response to them have the potential to shake public confidence in the COVID-19 vaccination rollout,” read a part of the memo titled “Testing Behaviourally Informed Messaging in Response to Severe Adverse Events Following Immunization.”

Instead of alerting the public, the secret memo suggested developing “winning communication strategies” to ensure the public did not lose confidence in the experimental injections.

Since the start of the COVID crisis, official data shows that the virus has been listed as the cause of death for less than 20 children in Canada under age 15. This is out of six million children in the age group.

The COVID jabs approved in Canada have also been associated with severe side effects, such as blood clots, rashes, miscarriages, and even heart attacks in young, healthy men.

Additionally, a recent study done by researchers with Canada-based Correlation Research in the Public Interest showed that 17 countries have found a “definite causal link” between peaks in all-cause mortality and the fast rollouts of the COVID shots, as well as boosters.

Interestingly, while the Department of Health has spent $16 million on injury payouts, the Liberal government spent $54 million COVID propaganda promoting the shot to young Canadians.

The Public Health Agency of Canada especially targeted young Canadians ages 18-24 because they “may play down the seriousness of the situation.”

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