Alberta
Oil and gas in the global economy through 2050
From the Canadian Energy Centre
The world will continue to rely on oil and gas for decades to come, according to the International Energy Agency
Recent global conflicts, which have been partly responsible for a global spike in energy prices, have cast their shadow on energy markets around the world. Added to this uncertainty is the ongoing debate among policymakers and public institutions in various jurisdictions about the role of traditional forms of energy in the global economy.
One widely quoted study influencing the debate is the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook, the most recent edition of which, World Energy Outlook 2023 (or WEO 2023), was released recently (IEA 2023).
In this CEC Fact Sheet, we examine projections for oil and natural gas production, demand, and investment drawn from the World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset, using the IEA’s modelled scenario STEPS, or the Stated Policies Scenario. The Extended Dataset provides more detailed data at the global, regional, and country level than that found in the main report.
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the various scenarios
Every year the IEA releases its annual energy outlook. The report looks at recent energy supply and demand, and projects the investment outlook for oil and gas over the next three decades. The World Energy Outlook makes use of a scenario approach to examine future energy trends. WEO 2023 models three scenarios: the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
STEPS appears to be the most plausible scenario because it is based on the world’s current trajectory, rather than the other scenarios set out in the WEO 2023, including the APS and the NZE. According to the IEA:
The Stated Policies Scenario is based on current policy settings and also considers the implications of industrial policies that support clean energy supply chains as well as measures related to energy and climate. (2023, p. 79; emphasis by author)
and
STEPS looks in detail at what [governments] are actually doing to reach their targets and objectives across the energy economy. Outcomes in the STEPS reflect a detailed sector-by-sector review of the policies and measures that are actually in place or that have been announced; aspirational energy or climate targets are not automatically assumed to be met. (2023, p. 92)
Key results
The key results of STEPS, drawn from the IEA’s Extended Dataset, indicate that the oil and gas industry is not going into decline over the next decade—neither worldwide generally, nor in Canada specifically. In fact, the demand for oil and gas in emerging and developing economies under STEPS will remain robust through 2050.
Oil and natural gas production projections under STEPS
World oil production is projected to increase from 94.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2022 to 97.2 mb/d in 2035, before falling slightly to 94.5 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 1).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian overall crude oil production is projected to increase from 5.8 mb/d in 2022 to 6.5 mb/d in 2035, before falling to 5.6 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 2).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian oil sands production is expected to increase from 3.6 mb/d in 2022 to 3.8 mb/d in 2035, and maintain the same production level till 2050 (see Figure 3).
Source: IEA (2023b)
World natural gas production is anticipated to increase from 4,138 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022 to 4,173 bcm in 2050 (see Figure 4).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian natural gas production is projected to decrease from 204 bcm in 2022 to 194 bcm in 2050 (see Figure 5).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Oil demand under STEPS
World demand for oil is projected to increase from 96.5 mb/d in 2022 to 97.4 mb/d by 2050 (see Tables 1A and 1B). Demand in Africa for oil is expected to increase from 4.0 mb/d in 2022 to 7.7 mb/d in 2050. Demand for oil in the Asia-Pacific is projected to increase from 32.9 mb/d in 2022 to 35.1 mb/d in 2050. Demand for oil from emerging and developing economies is anticipated to increase from 47.9 mb/d in 2022 to 59.3 mb/d in 2050.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Source: IEA (2023b)
Natural gas demand under STEPS
World demand for natural gas is expected to increase from 4,159 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022 to 4,179 bcm in 2050 (see Figures 6 and 7). Demand in Africa for natural gas is projected to increase from 170 bcm in 2020 to 277 bcm in 2050. Demand in the Asia-Pacific for natural gas is anticipated to increase from 900 bcm in 2020 to 1,119 bcm in 2050.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Source: IEA (2023b)
Cumulative oil and gas investment expected to be over $21 trillion
Taking into account projected global demand, between 2023 and 2050 the cumulative global oil and gas investment (upstream, midstream, and downstream) under STEPS is expected to reach nearly U.S.$21.1 trillion (in $2022). Global oil investment alone is expected to be over U.S.$13.1 trillion and natural gas investment is predicted to be over $8.0 trillion (see Figure 8).
Between 2023 and 2050, total oil and gas investment in North America (Canada, the U.S., and Mexico) is expected to be nearly U.S.$5.6 trillion, split between oil at over $3.8 trillion and gas at nearly $1.8 trillion (see Figure 8). Oil and gas investment in the Asia Pacific, over the same period, is estimated at nearly $3.3 trillion, split between oil at over $1.4 trillion and gas at over $1.9 trillion.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Conclusion
The sector-by-sector measures that governments worldwide have put in place and the specific policy initiatives that support clean energy policy, i.e., the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), both show oil and gas continuing to play a major role in the global economy through 2050. Key data points on production and demand drawn from the IEA’s WEO 2023 Extended Dataset confirm this trend.
Positioning Canada as a secure and reliable oil and gas supplier can and must be part of the medium- to long-term solution to meeting the oil and gas demands of the U.S., Europe, Asia and other regions as part of a concerted move supporting energy security.
The need for stable energy, which is something that oil and natural gas provide, is critical to a global economy whose population is set to grow by another 2 billion people by 2050. Along with the increasing population comes rising incomes, and with them comes a heightened demand for oil and natural gas, particularly in many emerging and developing economies in Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, where countries are seeing urbanization and industrialization grow rapidly.
References (as of February 11, 2024)
International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023(a), World Energy Outlook 2023 <http://tinyurl.com/4nv9xyfj>; International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023(b), World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset <http://tinyurl.com/3222553b>.
Alberta
Alberta laying out the welcome mat for AI Data Centres
Fueling innovation through AI data centre attraction
Alberta’s government is aiming for Alberta to become North America’s destination of choice for Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centre investment.
The AI data centre attraction strategy identifies three pillars that create the foundation of Alberta’s work to position itself as a competitive player in the global AI landscape: power capacity, sustainable cooling and economic diversification. In each of these strategic areas, there are policy and regulatory levers required in addition to other steps Alberta’s government is taking to ensure Alberta is the most attractive and competitive destination for this emerging sector. The entire approach prioritizes competitive advantages, economic integration, market stability and keeping utilities reliable and affordable.
“Artificial intelligence is behind all the newest technologies we rely on to make our lives better, simpler, safer. There’s incredible opportunity around artificial intelligence and we are unafraid to dream big. This strategy will position Alberta as the place to invest and build AI data centres, further building on our reputation as a province with no limit to innovation and opportunity.”
The world’s largest AI companies are in search of opportunities to build and energize their data centres. Alberta, with its abundant natural gas supply and world-class power industry, is highly attractive to AI data centre projects. The province’s unique competitive power market opens the door to many opportunities for AI companies to partner with Alberta’s talented and experienced electricity sector. The sector has decades of experience in finding innovative solutions to meet industry’s power needs while maintaining a balance of affordability and reliability in a system that Albertans count on.
AI data centres generate a lot of heat and require cooling. The strategy encourages operators to determine the cooling technology best suited for their needs, water license availability and regional and project circumstance. Additionally, Alberta’s climate offers significant advantages for AI data centres because of the province’s cold winters, which would reduce the need for artificial cooling systems.
Alberta’s government seeks to ensure Albertans benefit from AI data centres and is committed to ensuring economic growth and shared prosperity while ensuring Alberta continues to have the lowest taxes in Canada and is competitive across North America.
“Alberta is uniquely positioned to capture the AI data center opportunity, leveraging our vast natural gas resources and pro-business environment to create thousands of high-quality jobs and attract billions in investment. This strategy is not just about building infrastructure; it’s about fostering innovation and establishing Alberta as a hub for high-tech industries, driving economic growth and supporting critical public services like healthcare and education.”
Alberta is committed to fostering innovation and ensuring technology development aligns with industry needs. The strategy was developed after extensive consultation with organizations and businesses in the AI space and market participants.
“For AI companies to build and scale in Alberta, they need access to computing power. Data centers are economic growth engines that provide the computing power AI companies need to develop and deploy their innovations. grow their companies and stimulate the local economies. Beyond its natural advantages, Alberta boasts a robust AI ecosystem anchored by world-class research and talent. Many of the algorithms the world’s data centers are running on have been pioneered by Amii researchers right here in Alberta. The opportunity for those companies to be close to the source of some of the leading AI research gives them a competitive advantage in being at the forefront of what is coming next.”
Quick facts
- Over the past several months, Technology and Innovation met with AI data centre builders and operators, power generators, natural resource sector participants, telecommunications companies and municipalities actively pursuing AI data centres.
- AI data centre market size is anticipated to more than double by 2030 to more than $820 billion. (P&S Market Research)
- Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) has 12 data centre projects on their project list totalling 6,455 MW of load.
- Most of the power demand on the AESO project list is from data centers.
- Currently there is about 1,000 MW of additional dispatchable generation over Alberta’s current needs. This amount is dynamic and may change due to factors such as generation retirements, outages, derates, or new additions.
Related information
Alberta
Parents in every province—not just Alberta—deserve as much school choice as possible
From the Fraser Institute
Not only does Alberta have a fully funded separate (Catholic) school system, it also provides between 60 and 70 per cent operational funding to accredited independent schools. In addition, Alberta is the only province in Canada to allow fully funded charter schools. And Alberta subsidizes homeschooling parents.
This week, the Smith government in Alberta will likely pass Bill 27, which requires schools to get signed permission from parents or guardians prior to any lessons on human sexuality, gender identity or sexual orientation.
It’s a sensible move. The government is proactively ensuring that students are in these classes because their parents want them there. Given the sensitive nature of these topics, for everyone’s sake it makes sense to ensure parental buy-in at the outset.
Unfortunately, many school trustees don’t agree. A recent resolution passed by the Alberta School Boards Association (ASBA) calls on the Smith government to maintain the status quo where parents are assumed to have opted in to these lessons unless they contact the school and opt their children out. Apparently, the ASBA thinks parents can’t be trusted to make the right decisions for their children on this issue.
This ASBA resolution is, in fact, a good example of the reflexive opposition by government school trustees to parental rights. They don’t want parents to take control of their children’s education, especially in sensitive areas. Fortunately, the Alberta government rebuffed ASBA’s demands and this attempt to abolish Bill 27 will likely fall on deaf ears.
However, there’s an even better safeguard available to Alberta parents—school choice. Out of all Canadian provinces, Alberta offers the most school choice. Not only does Alberta have a fully funded separate (Catholic) school system, it also provides between 60 and 70 per cent operational funding to accredited independent schools. In addition, Alberta is the only province in Canada to allow fully funded charter schools. And Alberta subsidizes homeschooling parents. Simply put, parents who are dissatisfied with the government school system have plenty of options—more than parents in any other province. This means Alberta parents can vote with their feet.
Things are quite different in other parts of the country. For example, Ontario and the four Atlantic provinces do not allow any provincial funding to follow students to independent schools. In other words, parents in these provinces who choose an independent school must pay the full cost themselves—while still paying taxes that fund government schools. And no province other than Alberta allows charter schools.
This is why it’s important to give parents as much school choice as possible. Given the tendency of government school boards to remove choices from parents, it’s important that all parents, including those with limited means, have other options available for their children.
Imagine if the owners of a large grocery store tried to impose their dietary preferences by removing all meat products and telling customers that the only way they could purchase meat is to make a special order. What would happen in that scenario? It depends on what other options are available. If this was the only grocery store in the community, customers would have no choice but to comply. However, if there were other stores, customers could simply shop elsewhere. Choice empowers people and limits the ability of one company to limit the choices of people who live in the community.
Think of government school boards as a monopolistic service provider like a grocery store. They often do everything possible to prevent parents from going anywhere else for their children’s education. Trusting them to do what’s best for parents and children is like assuming that the owners of a grocery store would always put the interests of their customers first and not their own self-interest. Monopolies are bad in the private sector and they’re bad in the education sector, too.
Clearly, it makes sense to require schools to get proactive consent from parents. This ensures maximum buy-in from parents for whatever courses their children take. It’s also important that Alberta remains a bastion of school choice. By making it easier for parents to choose from a variety of education options, Alberta puts power in the hands of parents, exactly where it belongs. Parents in other provinces should want that same power, too.
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