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Odds Are Good Your Team Will Never Win A Title In Your Lifetime

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“There’s no failure in sports. There’s good days, bad days, some days you’re able to be successful, some days you’re not. Some days it’s your turn, some days it’s not your turn. That’s what sports is about. You don’t always win. Some other people’s going to win. And this year somebody else is going to win. Simple as that.” Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo on losing in the playoffs last spring.

Antetokounmpo was simply stating the obvious math. In a time where leagues are 30 or 32 teams, media expectations are rooted in the odds of a 12- or 14-team league when playoffs were just two rounds. There’s luck and sheer numbers working against your team. Fans follow this standard that your team must win titles or be forever damned. The closer a club gets the greater the expectations.

Still reporters demanded accountability from the man who’d helped the Bucks to the 2021 NBA title. But Giannis turned it back on reporter Eric Nehm . “Oh my god. You asked me the same question last year, Eric. Do you get a promotion every year on your job? No, right? So, every year your work is a failure? Yes or no? No. Every year you work, you work toward something, toward a goal, right? Which is to get a promotion, to be able to take care of your family, provide a house for them or take care of your parents. It’s not a failure, it’s steps to success.

He has a point. In the modern age failure is relative. The traditional poster boys for “failure” are the Buffalo Bills from 1992 to 1996. After wining the AFC every one of those years Marv Levy’s team went to four Super Bowls and lost every one of them, branding them forever in the media and fan perspective as losers.

No other team has ever made four consecutive Super Bowls. Kansas City made four title games in five years. None have made it to three straight Super Bowls. The Detroit Lions have zero Super Bowl appearances before this season and have won just three times in the postseason since their NFL championship in 1957.

Even in a league with 28 teams, the Bills’ feat was remarkable. Unprecedented. And yet, because they lost all four consecutive championship games they’re an avatar of failure. When compared to dynasties such as the 1970s Miami Dolphins (two Super bowls) or the 1980s-90s San Francisco 49ers (5 Super Bowls) the Bills are seen as chokers or losers. The New England Patriots’ winning six SBs from 2002-2016 are the real outlier.)

The current poster boys for hockey failure are the Toronto Maple Leafs, without an NHL championship since 1967. That year was also the last time the Leafs appeared in the Final series. They have since made the final four five times, the most recent being 2002 when Boston dispatched them. Most fans of the team, as well as most hockey fans, see them as a punchline. But in these times of bloated leagues, a semifinal appearance is the equivalent of making it to the Finals in the six-team league of 1967.

Fans and contemporary media still think they we are living in a time when every club, given a little luck and a good draft, will reward its fans with a champions parade. That’s what the mania for parity and salary caps was about. Balancing the draft would give everyone a shot at a star who’d take them to the holy land. But with 30 or 32 teams that formula doesn’t work. There’s just one Stanley Cup. One Lombardi Trophy. And 31 disappointed fan bases.

Where the 1955-60 Montreal Canadiens, 1976-80 Habs, 1981-84 New York Islanders and 1984-1988 Edmonton Oilers defined clutch with multiple Cups in consecutive or near-consecutive seasons, today’s gold standard is closer to two and done. Detroit won four Cups but it was between 1997 and 2008. Chicago won three Cups in five years (2010-2015). Pittsburgh had three Cups in eight years (2009-2017) .

Basketball (with its smaller rosters) still has super teams dominated by LeBron James and Steph Curry. But the NFL and MLB lack the traditional domination by repeat champions. Since 2000 only the San Francisco Giants have three titles and those were from 2010-2014). While the big-budget Dodgers and Yankees have been perennial playoff teams they haven’t dominated the current 30-team league as they did in the 1970s-1990s.

It’s likely that with the NHL talking about 36 teams fans of many of those clubs will not see their team win a title in their lifetime. Parity will sound nice coming from the league, but after decades of coming up short, the odds say fans shouldn’t be praying for a title.

As Giannis says, we need a new standard of success. Michael Jordan’s great accomplishment wasn’t simply the title he brought to the Bulls, it was the totality of seasons in which his club was a viable contender. “There’s always steps to it,” said Antetokounmpo. “Michael Jordan played 15 years, won six championships. The other nine years was a failure? That’s what you’re telling me?

In our book Ice Storm on the 2008-2013 Vancouver Canucks, GM Mike Gillis made the same point when describing his formula for success with a team that has gone longest without a Cup. Understanding the place luck and injuries play, he said his description for success was having a contending team that had a puncher’s chance every year and, eventually, a title winner. Yes, there would be down years. On average, however, it would reap tiles and profits for owners.

But Gillis’ owner, Francesco Aquilini, who’d originally subscribed to this formula, panicked when a near-miss for the Cup in 2011 was followed by two first-round eliminations in subsequent years. The bleating of disappointed season-ticket holders and the criticism from hostile media moved Aquilini to replace Gills with local hero Trevor Linden. The Canucks then missed the playoffs in eight of the next eleven seasons.

Setting too high a bar is a recipe for failure to any management. Explaining the rarity of a semifinal appearance— as Giannis did— can lessen the stress. But until media cite a more realistic standard it’s unlikely anyone will cut teams losing in the playoff any slack. They may well ask what’s in it for them when owners cash a fat expansion fee and push a Cup that much further away.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

BRUCE DOWBIGGIN Award-winning Author and Broadcaster Bruce Dowbiggin's career is unmatched in Canada for its diversity and breadth of experience . He is currently the editor and publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster website and is also a contributor to SiriusXM Canada Talks. His new book Cap In Hand was released in the fall of 2018. Bruce's career has included successful stints in television, radio and print. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster for his work with CBC-TV, Mr. Dowbiggin is also the best-selling author of "Money Players" (finalist for the 2004 National Business Book Award) and two new books-- Ice Storm: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Vancouver Canucks Team Ever for Greystone Press and Grant Fuhr: Portrait of a Champion for Random House. His ground-breaking investigations into the life and times of Alan Eagleson led to his selection as the winner of the Gemini for Canada's top sportscaster in 1993 and again in 1996. This work earned him the reputation as one of Canada's top investigative journalists in any field. He was a featured columnist for the Calgary Herald (1998-2009) and the Globe & Mail (2009-2013) where his incisive style and wit on sports media and business won him many readers.

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Hat Trick: Nick Bosa’s Photo Bomb Re-Ignites The Colin Kaepernick Fury

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For many this U.S. election can’t be over soon enough. The epidemic of the stupids still rages. (Anyone expecting resolution on Tuesday night better be in for a wait.)

Example: On last week’s Sunday Night football, San Francisco star Nick Bosa photo-bombed a postgame interview wearing a MAGA hat. (For some reason it was not the telltale red). He then quickly departed leaving his teammates and NBC reporter Melissa Stark to continue the usual bromides about team and character.

Predictably in this insane election season, Bosa’s drive-by political statement sent social media into an Elon Musk orbit. First were the demands that Bosa be fined by the NFL for political activity. Indeed the NFL can impose a $11,255 fine for “wearing, displaying, or otherwise conveying personal messages… which relate to political activities or causes.” (As of this writing, the NFL has yet to impose any sanctions against Bosa.)

Then there were butt-hurt Democrats. “I hope (49ers CEO) @JedYork trades Nick Bosa to Mar-A-Lago,” wrote Robert Rivas, Democratic speaker of the 29th District of the California State Assembly. “As a lifelong @49ers fan, I can say I’ve seen enough of Bosa in California.” And so on.

More telling were the Colin Kaepernick flashbacks to when he sat in 2016 during the national anthem to highlight his conversion to #BLM orthodoxy. “I better hear all the angry white people who told Colin Kaepernick to “shut up and play ball” or go “keep politics out of the NFL” outraged by this too. Like come on keep your energy or does it only count when you’re able to be racist?

“Two 49er NFL players. Two political statements. Black Lives Matter v. MAGA.  Only one is allowed by the NFL.”

“Anyone remember when Nick Bosa called Kaepernick a clown for taking a political stance? Imagine being this much of a hypocrite,” another fan added.

Well now… we could make the point that photo bombing a political preference during an election is somewhat different from a high-profile convert to radical racial reparations disrespecting the national anthem in a non-election season. Here’s how we covered it in August of 2018.

For those who don’t remember the grievance, Kaepernick (who was raised by white parents) suddenly had a fit of conscience over the alleged slaughter of unarmed blacks by police. “I am not going to stand up to show pride in a flag for a country that oppresses black people and people of color. To me, this is bigger than football and it would be selfish on my part to look the other way. There are bodies in the street and people getting paid leave and getting away with murder.”

Which is his right, except unarmed black men in 2016, unarmed black men in 2024, are not being killed by police in the hundreds. (Most years it’s in single digits to 20 range in a population of 41 million blacks.) While tut-tutting about the gesture made on his employer’s time, the NFL declined to sanction Kaepernick. Which sparked copy-cat kneel downs and protests around sports, accompanied by the racial divisiveness typical of the Obama years.

His protest also coincided with his decline as a starting QB in the NFL (the 49ers won just two games in 2016). By 2018 Kaepernick was out of work in the NFL (after opting out of a contract from San Fran) and a full-blown BLM martyr. Nike gave him $ 3 million a year to spearhead their Woke campaigns. Netflix did a series on the ex-QB. Newly minted president Donald Trump decried the whole situation. Then Cowboys owner Jerry Jones— who’d knelt with players in Week One of the anthem controversy— threatened to bench any players who upstaged the anthem.

The NFL then passed a rule saying any players who wanted to protest the national anthem could do so in the locker room. That limp policy lasted just a few weeks. Protests during the anthem petered out as they lost their ability to shock. For the next years Kaepernick would claim he was blackballed (he reached a settlement with the NFL in 2019) and express his desire to play.

The 2020 George Floyd riots— after he died of a drug-induced heart attack while in police custody— pushed Kaepernick’s story to the side. He’s now done as a possible QB and the financial problems of BLM have made them a lesser player in the grievance cause. But it is fair to say Kaepernick made a choice to be a symbol for all multi-million dollar oppressed athletes and the radical Left has moved on without him.

So Bosa acting like a college sophomore to express a voting preference after a game compared to Kaepernick wanting a race-based social revolution in America? Mmm. These things are not like the other. It’s like accusing Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce of political interference for appearing with his girlfriend Taylor Swift, a vocal Kamala Harris supporter.

What is inarguable is the toxic Trump effect in pro sports such as football or basketball which have over seventy percent black players. It’s not just black players. Prominent white coaches such as Golden State’s Steve Kerr and San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich go off about Donald Trump. Here’s Pop during a press conference: “He’s pathetic. He’s small. He’s a whiner… He’s a damaged man.”

As we’ve said many times, the left-leaning sports media piled on Trump as well. Former ESPN NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski F-bombed Trump, TNT analyst and HoF player Charles Barkley said anyone voting for Trump was an “idiot” and award-winning host Bob Costas called him the “most disgraceful figure in modern presidential history” and his voters “a toxic cult”. So the messaging on Bosa vs. Kaepernick is supect at best.

We will update this column after we learn the results of the election (likely later this week). But for now let’s all be grateful that candidate Trump as political football is at an end. And the hysteria from Kamala Harris’ crowd can be re-directed to the border.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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Priming The NHL Coaching Carousel For Another Spin

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“The world will ask you who you are, and if you do not know, the world will tell you.” Carl Jung

We are about a month into the endless 2024-25 NHL schedule. There are good surprises. Winnipeg and Calgary are better than thought. There are bad surprises. Cup finalists in spring, Edmonton is 3-4-1. Vexing Toronto is at a mediocre 4-4-1.

It’s early. But not so early that several coaches are not feeling the heat already. We can expect that heads will soon roll if certain teams don’t find their mojo. It’s a sad but predictable result of a salary cap league where the most disposable item is a coach. As we wrote in May, don’t shed too many tears for the deposed coaches. Salvation is just a turn of the wheel away.

As long as you’re willing to re-locate frequently the job of NHL head coach has a fair degree of job security. Even when you get fired it seems there’s a ready appetite in some other town for a skill set you have just failed at.

Latest evidence that failure has an I and U in it: Having canned Sheldon Keefe after a lengthy (note: sarcasm) five years at the helm of the Toronto Maple Leafs, club management scoured the bushes to find former player Craig “Chief” Berube, who has previously hung his coaching shingle in Philadelphia and St. Louis, where he won a Stanley Cup as an interim coach.

Chief wasn’t the glamour name (we were praying for Bruce Boudreau.). If the idea is how do the Leafs motivate their four mega-millionaires, he’s more like Mike Babcock than Sheldon Keefe. He won’t look at players’ cell phones, but he will give them that old-time religion. Knowing Chief from his Calgary days we’d say he can probably take the Toronto fishbowl. 

(For those with long Leafs’ memories Berube was part of a famous trade in 1992 to which we devote an entire chapter in our new book Deal With It. He went west to Calgary while Doug Gilmour headed east to Toronto in the massive 10-man trade. While the Leafs “won” the trade, only the maligned Gary Leeman and journeyman Jamie Macoun won Cups– for teams other than Calgary and Toronto.)

But we digress. Sometimes it seems that NHL teams would rather lose with a known commodity than win with someone bold and unconventional behind the bench. While almost 30 percent of NHL players are European there have only been two European heads coaches, none in the past 20 years. Why? NHL owners are risk averse. And the league is a fraternity of forgiveness for guys you played junior with. 

A brief ramble through the 2023-24 coaching roster shows several peripatetic bench bosses, led by the inimitable John Tortorella, who wore out his welcome in Vancouver, Tampa Bay, NY Rangers and Columbus before Philly curiously decided he had something left to offer. Let’s also not  forget Lindy Ruff, who was pink slipped in Buffalo, Dallas, New Jersey and the NY Rangers— and now has been resurrected in Buffalo as a “fresh voice”. 

Some retreads are getting results. Peter Laviolette got the Rangers into the third-round of the 2024 postseason, after gigs in Carolina, Philadelphia, Nashville, Washington (pause for breath) and the NY Islanders. Paul Maurice, who guided Florida to the Cup, has had two  stints with Carolina, plus Toronto and Winnipeg. Peter DeBoer, whose Dallas Stars were odd-on faves to with the 2024 Cup, has also coached Florida, San Jose, New Jersey and Vegas. 

You want more? Rick Tocchet was head coach in Arizona and Tampa Bay before getting the perch in Vancouver. Travis Green, newly hired in Ottawa, has previously been found wanting in Vancouver and New Jersey. We could go on.

The king of the coach-for-life carousel is the just-retired Rick Bowness who finally called it a day in Winnipeg after the Jets were eliminated this spring. How long has Bones been knocking around? He was the coach of the expansion Ottawa Senators in 1992, one the worst five teams ever by NHL standards. Wonderful man who also spent stints as an assistant in cities in 30-plus years around the continent. 

There are more. Sitting in the green room, polishing their pregame speeches are the well- travelled Boudreau, Dallas Eakins, Gerard Gallant, Todd McLellan, Claude Julien and Mike Yeo. Heaven forbid someone might still ask one of the Sutters to saddle up again. Brian (St. Louis, Chicago, Boston, Calgary), Darryl (Calgary, L.A., Anaheim, San Jose and Calgary again) and Brent (Calgary, New Jersey) have been perennial NHL coaching prospects for decades.

So take, heart, Sheldon Keefe. Joining Keefe in looking for a rebound job are Scott Arniel, Jeff Blashill, Jeremy Colliton, Kevin Dineen, Phil Housley, Kirk Muller, Davis Payne, Todd Reirden, Joe Sacco, Brad Shaw, Geoff Ward and Trent Yawney. Good company. [UPDATE: Sheldon didn’t have to wait long. The NJ Devils signed him as their new coach.]

Don’t cry too hard for these coaching candidates. Unless they have years left on contract (Keefe had two) most wait out the time between head-coaching stints by accepting assistant-coach positions. The ranks of assistants contain a second tier of talent, also ready to go at a moment’s notice. 

There are a scant few who’ve hung on in one town. Jon Cooper has been in Tampa since 2013, a Methuselah stint in today’s terms. Rod Brind’Amour has managed to avoid the chop in Carolina since 2018. But the reality is that, since the start off the 2023-24 season alone, there have been 13 head-coaching changes in the NHL. Go back to January of 2023, and 19 of the league’s 32 teams have changed coaches.

Which brings us back to the original idea: “Is there no one in international hockey who knows anything?” We won’t profess to be coaching talent scouts, but the idea that no one working outside North America can meet the job description better than some— if not most—of the coaches mentioned above beggars the imagination. 

One final note: If you’re looking for an explanation of the coaching carousel and its recent frequency, look no further than Gary Bettman and his salary cap obsession. By forcing a hard cap on teams he’s concentrated the money— and the power— on a few players per team. When a coach is pitted against his stars it’s a no-win proposition. 

The Leafs stars used their power to get Babcock fired. And it’s been repeated on other teams. While Keefe didn’t lose his Core Four he also couldn’t get them to win in the postseason. For that he got the chop— and a premium place in the next coaching carousel.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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