Alberta
New COVID-19 modelling concludes the most likely scenario is much lower than former numbers
From the Province of Alberta
COVID-19 modelling data update
Revised data show protective measures and the efforts of Albertans are making a critical difference in our fight against COVID-19.
The Government of Alberta has introduced a new “low” modelling scenario estimating 298 Albertans will require hospitalization and 95 will require critical care when the virus reaches its peak. If current trends continue, this scenario will become the most likely scenario for Alberta.
Updated modelling scenarios continue to estimate that Alberta’s outbreak will reach its peak in late May. However, the number of Albertans hospitalized at the peak of the virus is predicted to be lower than originally estimated. This reflects Alberta’s experience over the past few weeks and the proportion of cases actually entering hospital and intensive care units.
“The data show us that our efforts to lower the peak of the virus are working, but we must remain vigilant. We continue to refine our modelling in order to ensure our health-care system is prepared. While we are still a ways off from returning to our normal way of life, our government is working around the clock on a phased approach to relaunch our economy safely. It is essential Albertans continue to exercise common sense and follow public health guidance so we can get the economy moving again as quickly as possible.”
As a result of aggressive public health measures put in place, the probable scenario now estimates 596 people in Alberta will require hospitalization, with 190 requiring critical care on the days when the virus reaches its peak. With Alberta’s younger-than-average population and our aggressive testing measures, which are able to catch cases with less severe symptoms, Alberta Health’s new “low” scenario is fortunately becoming our most realistic.
Alberta Health has scaled up the capacity of the province’s health-care system in order to ensure it is prepared to support patients at the peak of the pandemic in any scenario.
Existing public health measures remain in place to stop the spread of COVID-19.
Quick facts
- The model uses several key assumptions, including:
- not all cases are detected
- transmission is more common within an age group, rather than between age groups
- there is no asymptomatic transmission
- people are infectious for five to 10 days
- all ICU patients require ventilation
- overall, nine per cent of cases are hospitalized and two per cent require ICU, but this varies significantly by age. The low scenario assumes 4.5 per cent of cases are hospitalized and one per cent require ICU, which aligns with actual results.
- The most important measure Albertans can take to prevent respiratory illnesses, including COVID-19, is to practise good hygiene.
- This includes cleaning your hands regularly for at least 20 seconds, avoiding touching your face, coughing or sneezing into your elbow or sleeve, and disposing of tissues appropriately.
- Any individual exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19, including cough, fever, runny nose, sore throat or shortness of breath, is eligible for testing. People can access testing by completing the COVID-19 self-assessment online. A separate self-assessment tool is available for health-care and shelter workers, enforcement and first responders. After completing the form, there is no need to call 811.
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A family member of five slain students holds a heart sign with their names on it following a court decision in Calgary, Alta., Wednesday, May 25, 2016. Alberta’s highest court is being asked to overturn a review board decision on the stabbing deaths of five young people at a Calgary house party that confined a man to a supervised Edmonton group home. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
By Ritika Dubey in Edmonton
Alberta’s highest court is being asked to overturn a review board decision that confined a man to a supervised Edmonton group home after the stabbing deaths of five young people at a Calgary house party.
The lawyer representing Matthew de Grood argued Wednesday the review board’s decision was biased, citing what she described as political interference from Alberta’s former justice minister.
“The appellant says, ‘I think the conclusion about me is wrong. The board’s conclusion is incorrect and not supported by evidence,”’ Jacqueline Petrie said before the Alberta Court of Appeal. “He says there’s no significant evidence that he’s a risk.”
De Grood, 31, was found not criminally responsible in 2016 for the killings two years earlier of Zackariah Rathwell, Jordan Segura, Kaitlin Perras, Josh Hunter and Lawrence Hong because he was suffering from schizophrenia at the time. Petrie said de Grood has been stable on medication, is at low risk to reoffend and should be allowed to live with his parents while being monitored under a full warrant.
She argued the review board misunderstood medical evidence during the September 2022 review, which deemed de Grood a significant risk despite the assessment showing improvements. She said the board is supposed to recommend the least onerous disposition compatible with public safety and did not do that for de Grood.
The defence lawyer has said the review had been influenced by former justice minister Doug Schweitzer, who weighed in on de Grood’s case in October 2019 after the panel allowed de Grood to transition from institutional care to a supervised group home.
He has been under supervision at a group home. His case is reviewed by the Alberta Review Board yearly to see whether he can transition back into the community while maintaining public safety.
Petrie pointed at de Grood’s “exemplary record,” and that he has been “compliant to the (medical) treatment team.”
“Nobody knew he had schizophrenia (at the time of the stabbings) and needed medication.”
Crown prosecutor Matthew Griener said the board considered a conditional discharge but dismissed it, citing a relapse in schizophrenia symptoms in 2021.
Griener said de Grood’s relapses were brief and happened at the hospital, providing an early window for medical professionals to intervene.
Justice Kevin Feehan said de Grood may be low-risk, but the consequences of even one relapse could be significant.
Reading from an expert’s report, Feehan said: “A low risk to offend doesn’t mean the reoffence would not be severe.”
Some family members of the victims drove from Calgary for the hearing.
Segura’s mother, Patty, said the last nine years have been about de Grood and his rights.
“He should be thankful that he ended up NCR (not criminally responsible) rather than end(ing) with five life sentences for murdering five people,” she said. “He should not be appealing.”
Hunter’s father, Barclay, opposed a potential full release.
“The idea that he wouldn’t be monitored for the rest of his life seems to defy logic, it doesn’t make any sense,” said the father.
Hunter’s mother, Kelly, said the family has had “no healing.”
“We do this every year, at least once. Now, this is the second appeal,” she said. Barclay
Hunter said although there are attempts to reintegrate de Grood into society, he hopes the man is not left on his own with an absolute discharge.
“Regardless of what they say, he killed five people. If that doesn’t stand on its own as a risk factor, then I don’t know what does.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 7, 2023.
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Homicide detective Michael Campeau prepares to hold a press conference to discusses the arrest of Michael White at police headquarters in Edmonton, Tuesday, July 19, 2005. The Parole Board of Canada says Michael White, convicted of killing his pregnant wife and dumping her body in a ditch 17 years ago, was granted full parole following a review of his case. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Scott
By Kiernan Green in Toronto
An Edmonton man convicted of killing his pregnant wife and dumping her body in a ditch has been granted full parole.
The Parole Board of Canada granted Michael White full parole in late May.
“Given your assessed low risk, employment stability and your demonstrated abilities to live a law-abiding lifestyle the board does not find that your risk would be undue on an expanded form of conditional release,” the board said in a written decision.
“Therefore, full parole is granted.”
White was convicted in 2006 of second-degree murder and offering an indignity to a dead body in the death of his wife.
Liana White was four months pregnant with the couple’s second child when she was fatally stabbed in July 2005. Her body was found in a ditch a few days later by a search party that included her husband.
The parole board noted that Michael White had disposed of his wife’s body and “cleaned up” evidence from his crime. A judge described White’s offence as “the most reprehensible and extreme form of domestic violence,” the board wrote.
White was sentenced to life in prison with no chance of parole for 17 years. His appeal of his convictions was rejected by Alberta’s highest court.
The parole board noted that White continues to maintain his innocence.
“Your stance of innocence has prevented you from possible insight,” it wrote, adding that White’s case management team felt he demonstrated a “good deal of accountability and victim empathy,” as best as he could.
Conditions of White’s full parole include that he have no contact with Liana White’s family unless they request it and that he report any changes in his current relationship with his fiancée and any new relationships with women.
Michael White was granted day parole from Beaver Creek Institution in Gravenhurst, Ont., in February 2021, which was extended several times.
He has been taking extended weekend passes at a condo with his fiancee, “with no concerns noted” and started a new job in January that allows him to work on a variety of heavy equipment, the parole board said.
White plans to remarry and to travel, the board said.
“Your fiancée is considered a positive collateral contact and aware of your offending and release conditions,” it wrote. “You maintain support in the community from some friends and family.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 6, 2023.
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