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Natural gas key to withstanding winter and Ottawa’s assault

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From the Fraser Institute

By Kenneth P. Green

Mother Nature has reminded everyone that the stakes in the battle to preserve and expand Alberta’s natural gas power production are very high—basically, life or death.

Last week’s polar vortex drove temperatures into record negative territory across western Canada. Nighttime temperatures in Alberta, for example, reached -51 degrees Celsius at Keg River. Without sufficient power for running the heat on high, these are killing temperatures. Demand for electricity in Alberta soared, pushing the power grid toward potential need for rolling blackouts. Only voluntary cutbacks in electricity use by Albertans allowed the system to avoid curtailment.

What did the grid look like last week?

On Jan. 13, according to one report, natural gas generated 80.5 per cent of power on Alberta’s grid followed by coal (7.9 per cent), biomass (2.9 per cent), hydropower (2.5 per cent), solar power (1.3 per cent) and wind (0.99 per cent). But wind and solar’s low combined output was not the major cause of Alberta’s energy crunch last week—two of Alberta’s natural gas power plants were down for maintenance and not generating what they otherwise would have.

And yet, while gas and coal combined produced nearly 90 per cent of Alberta’s life-saving electricity, these fuels remain in the crosshairs of Ottawa and the Trudeau government’s proposal that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electricity production in Canada must decline to “net zero” by 2035.

In the battle over the Trudeau government’s plan, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith argues that Ottawa intends to shut down natural-gas power generation, and because alternatives such as wind and solar power are unaffordable, Alberta will be unable to generate sufficient electricity for Albertans. Meanwhile, federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault denies that Ottawa wants to end fossil fuel use and argues that his government’s proposed regulations already allow for natural gas power production, so long as GHG emissions are “mitigated” via carbon capture and storage. Even unmitigated natural gas power would be allowed in emergency situations, according to Guilbeault, who recently accused Premier Smith of “trying to tear Canada down.”

Guilbeault’s argument, however, rests on what he likely knows is a false hope—that carbon capture and storage technology will evolve and be deployed at sufficient speed and capacity to allow Alberta to attain the net-zero emission target by 2035. This is highly unlikely. Carbon capture and storage has many critics including the International Energy Agency (IEA), which recently published a report suggesting that carbon capture and storage is inadequate for capturing carbon dioxide at the scale necessary to reach net-zero emissions by 2035 or beyond. Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, threw cold water on the idea, saying the oil and gas industry must help the “world meet its energy needs and climate goals—which means letting go of the illusion that implausibly large amounts of carbon capture are the solution.”

The potential peril of power outages during a polar vortex shows the importance of ensuring that Alberta has a reliable dispatchable electrical generation capacity able to meet even extreme demand. Wind and solar power, favoured under the Trudeau government’s proposed clean electricity regulations, can’t supply that. Premier Smith is right to bank on natural gas generation for Alberta’s future, and she should stand fast. As remaining coal power plants are closed, natural gas will be the foundation of Alberta’s energy stability and it must be defended.

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Most Canadians say retaliatory tariffs on American goods contribute to raising the price of essential goods at home

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  • 77 per cent say Canada’s tariffs on U.S. products increase the price of consumer goods
  • 72 per cent say that their current tax bill hurts their standard of living

A new MEI-Ipsos poll published this morning reveals a clear disconnect between Ottawa’s high-tax, high-spending approach and Canadians’ level of satisfaction.

“Canadians are not on board with Ottawa’s fiscal path,” says Samantha Dagres, communications manager at the MEI. “From housing to trade policy, Canadians feel they’re being squeezed by a government that is increasingly an impediment to their standard of living.”

More than half of Canadians (54 per cent) say Ottawa is spending too much, while only six per cent think it is spending too little.

A majority (54 per cent) also do not believe federal dollars are being effectively allocated to address Canada’s most important issues, and a similar proportion (55 per cent) are dissatisfied with the transparency and accountability in the government’s spending practices.

As for their own tax bills, Canadians are equally skeptical. Two-thirds (67 per cent) say they pay too much income tax, and about half say they do not receive good value in return.

Provincial governments fared even worse. A majority of Canadians say they receive poor value for the taxes they pay provincially. In Quebec, nearly two-thirds (64 per cent) of respondents say they are not getting their money’s worth from the provincial government.

Not coincidentally, Quebecers face the highest marginal tax rates in North America.

On the question of Canada’s response to the U.S. trade dispute, nearly eight in 10 Canadians (77 per cent) agree that Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs on American products are driving up the cost of everyday goods.

“Canadians understand that tariffs are just another form of taxation, and that they are the ones footing the bill for any political posturing,” adds Ms. Dagres. “Ottawa should favour unilateral tariff reduction and increased trade with other nations, as opposed to retaliatory tariffs that heap more costs onto Canadian consumers and businesses.”

On the issue of housing, 74 per cent of respondents believe that taxes on new construction contribute directly to unaffordability.

All of this dissatisfaction culminates in 72 per cent of Canadians saying their overall tax burden is reducing their standard of living.

“Taxpayers are not just ATMs for government – and if they are going to pay such exorbitant taxes, you’d think the least they could expect is good service in return,” says Ms. Dagres. “Canadians are increasingly distrustful of a government that believes every problem can be solved with higher taxes.”

A sample of 1,020 Canadians 18 years of age and older was polled between June 17 and 23, 2025. The results are accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The results of the MEI-Ipsos poll are available here.

* * *

The MEI is an independent public policy think tank with offices in Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary. Through its publications, media appearances, and advisory services to policymakers, the MEI stimulates public policy debate and reforms based on sound economics and entrepreneurship.

 

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Trump confirms 35% tariff on Canada, warns more could come

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Quick Hit:

President Trump on Thursday confirmed a sweeping new 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1, citing Canada’s failure to curb fentanyl trafficking and retaliatory trade actions.

Key Details:

  • In a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump said the new 35% levy is in response to Canada’s “financial retaliation” and its inability to stop fentanyl from reaching the U.S.
  • Trump emphasized that Canadian businesses that relocate manufacturing to the U.S. will be exempt and promised expedited approvals for such moves.
  • The administration has already notified 23 countries of impending tariffs following the expiration of a 90-day negotiation window under Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade policy.

Diving Deeper:

President Trump escalated his tariff strategy on Thursday, formally announcing a 35% duty on all Canadian imports effective August 1. The move follows what Trump described as a breakdown in trade cooperation and a failure by Canada to address its role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis.

“It is a Great Honor for me to send you this letter in that it demonstrates the strength and commitment of our Trading Relationship,” Trump wrote to Prime Minister Mark Carney. He added that the tariff response comes after Canada “financially retaliated” against the U.S. rather than working to resolve the flow of fentanyl across the northern border.

Trump’s letter made clear the tariff will apply broadly, separate from any existing sector-specific levies, and included a warning that “goods transshipped to evade this higher Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff.” The president also hinted that further retaliation from Canada could push rates even higher.

However, Trump left the door open for possible revisions. “If Canada works with me to stop the flow of Fentanyl, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter,” he said, adding that tariffs “may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship.”

Canadian companies that move operations to the U.S. would be exempt, Trump said, noting his administration “will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely — In other words, in a matter of weeks.”

The U.S. traded over $762 billion in goods with Canada in 2024, with a trade deficit of $63.3 billion, a figure Trump called a “major threat” to both the economy and national security.

Speaking with NBC News on Thursday, Trump suggested even broader tariff hikes are coming, floating the idea of a 15% or 20% blanket rate on all imports. “We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay,” he told Meet the Press moderator Kristen Welker, adding that “the tariffs have been very well-received” and noting that the stock market had hit new highs that day.

The Canadian announcement is part of a broader global tariff rollout. In recent days, Trump has notified at least 23 countries of new levies and revealed a separate 50% tariff on copper imports.

“Not everybody has to get a letter,” Trump said when asked if other leaders would be formally notified. “You know that. We’re just setting our tariffs.”

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