Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.

The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.

Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.

Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.

Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.

Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.

The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.

Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.

Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.

And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.

Related Topics:#AlbertaBudget #AlbertaDebt #AlbertaFinances #FraserInstitute #TeganHill AlbertaDefecit AlbertaLowOilPrices

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Alberta

Cross-Canada NGL corridor will stretch from B.C. to Ontario

Published on July 12, 2025

Todayville

Keyera Corp.’s natural gas liquids facilities in Fort Saskatchewan. Photo courtesy Keyera Corp.

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Will Gibson

Keyera ‘Canadianizes’ natural gas liquids with $5.15 billion acquisition

Sarnia, Ont., which sits on the southern tip of Lake Huron and peers across the St. Clair River to Michigan, is a crucial energy hub for much of the eastern half of Canada and parts of the United States.

With more than 60 industrial facilities including refineries and chemical plants that produce everything from petroleum, resins, synthetic rubber, plastics, lubricants, paint, cosmetics and food additives in the southwestern Ontario city, Mayor Mike Bradley admits the ongoing dialogue about tariffs with Canada’s southern neighbour hits close to home.

So Bradley welcomed the announcement that Calgary-based Keyera Corp. will acquire the majority of Plains American Pipelines LLP’s Canadian natural gas liquids (NGL) business, creating a cross-Canada NGL corridor that includes a storage hub in Sarnia.

“As a border city, we’ve been on the frontline of the tariff wars, so we support anything that helps enhance Canadian sovereignty and jobs,” says the long-time mayor, who was first elected in 1988.

The assets in Sarnia are a key piece of the $5.15 billion transaction, which will connect natural gas liquids from the growing Montney and Duvernay plays in B.C. and Alberta to markets in central Canada and the eastern U.S. seaboard.

Map courtesy Keyera Corp.

NGLs are hydrocarbons found within natural gas streams including ethane, propane and pentanes. They are important energy sources and used to produce a wide range of everyday items, from plastics and clothing to fuels.

Keyera CEO Dean Setoguchi cast the proposed acquisition as an act of repatriation.

“This transaction brings key NGL infrastructure under Canadian ownership, enhancing domestic energy capabilities and reinforcing Canada’s economic resilience by keeping value and decision-making closer to home,” Setoguchi told analysts in a June 17 call.

“Plains’ portfolio forms a fully integrated cross Canada NGL system connecting Western Canada supply to key demand centres across the Prairie provinces, Ontario and eastern U.S.,” he said.

“The system includes strategic hubs like Empress, Fort Saskatchewan and Sarnia – which provide a reliable source of Canadian NGL supply to extensive fractionation, storage, pipeline and logistics infrastructure.”

Martin King, RBN Energy’s managing director of North America Energy Market Analysis, sees Keyera’s ability to “Canadianize” its NGL infrastructure as improving the company’s growth prospects.

“It allows them to tap into the Duvernay and Montney, which are the fastest growing NGL plays in North America and gives them some key assets throughout the country,” said the Calgary-based analyst.

“The crown assets are probably the straddle plants in Empress, which help strip out the butane, ethane and other liquids for condensate. It also positions them well to serve the eastern half of the country.”

And that’s something welcomed in Sarnia.

“Having a Canadian source for natural gas would be our preference so we see Keyera’s acquisition as strengthening our region as an energy hub,” Bradley said.

“We are optimistic this will be good for our region in the long run.”

The acquisition is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals.

Meanwhile, the governments of Ontario and Alberta are joining forces to strengthen the economies of both regions, and the country, by advancing major infrastructure projects including pipelines, ports and rail.

A joint feasibility study is expected this year on how to move major private sector-led investments forward.

Alberta

Alberta school boards required to meet new standards for school library materials with regard to sexual content

Published on July 10, 2025

Government of Alberta

Alberta’s government has introduced new standards to ensure school library materials are age-appropriate.

School libraries should be safe and supportive places where students can learn and explore without being exposed to inappropriate sexual content. However, in the absence of a consistent standard for selecting age-appropriate library materials, school boards have taken different approaches, leading to concerns about safeguards in place.

In response to these concerns, and informed by feedback from education partners and the public, Alberta’s government has created standards to provide school boards with clear direction on the selection, availability and access to school library materials, such as books.

“Our actions to ensure that materials in school libraries don’t expose children to sexual content were never about banning books. These new standards are to ensure that school boards have clear guidance to ensure age-appropriate access to school library materials, while reflecting the values and priorities of Albertans.”

Demetrios Nicolaides, Minister of Education and Childcare

The new standards set clear expectations for school library materials with regard to sexual content and require school boards to implement policies to support these standards.

Standards for school library materials

Under the new standards, school libraries are not permitted to include library materials containing explicit sexual content. Non-explicit sexual content may be accessible to students in Grade 10 and above, provided it is age-appropriate.

“Protecting kids from explicit content is common sense. LGBTQ youth, like all children, deserve to see themselves in stories that are age-appropriate, supportive and affirming – not in material that sexualizes or confuses them.”

Blaine Badiuk, education and LGBTQ advocate

School boards must also regularly review their school library collections, publish a full list of available materials and ensure that a staff member supervises students’ access to school library materials. School boards will have to remove any materials with explicit sexual content from their school libraries by October 1.

School board policies and procedures

All school boards must have publicly available policies that align with the new standards for selecting and managing library materials by January 1, 2026. School boards can either create new policies or update existing ones to meet these requirements.

These policies must outline how school library materials are selected and reviewed, how staff supervise students’ access throughout the school day, and how a student, parent, school board employee or other member of the school community can request a review or removal of materials in the school library. School boards are also required to clearly communicate these policies to employees, students and parents before January 2026.

“A robust, grade- and age-appropriate library catalogue is vital for student success. We welcome the ministry’s initiative to establish consistent standards and appreciate the ongoing consultation to help craft a plan that will serve our families and communities well.”

Holly Bilton, trustee, Chinook’s Edge School Division

“Red Deer Public Schools welcomes the new provincial standards for school library materials. Our division is committed to maintaining welcoming, respectful learning spaces where students can grow and thrive. Under the new standards for school libraries, we remain dedicated to providing learning resources that reflect our values and support student success.”

Nicole Buchanan, chair, Red Deer Public Schools

Quick facts

The new standards will apply to public, separate, francophone, charter and independent schools.
The ministerial order does not apply to municipal libraries located within schools or materials selected for use by teachers as learning and teaching resources.
From May 26 to June 6, almost 80,000 people completed an online survey to provide feedback on the creation of consistent standards to ensure the age-appropriateness of materials available to students in school libraries.

Related information

Ministerial Order
School library standards engagement
Reference Materials: Content warning: this document contains graphic content that may be disturbing to viewers and is not appropriate for young viewers. Viewer discretion is advised.