Bruce Dowbiggin
In Toronto The Leafs Always Fall In Spring

Something really needs to be done for Toronto Maple Leafs fans. After a frantic trade-deadline session in which GM Kyle Dumas collected defencemen like Costco points— while adding Ryan O’Reilly from St. Louis— Leafs Nation is more depressed than ever at the chances of breaking its humiliating 55-year Stanley Cup drought. Or the accompanying 55-year Stanley Cup Final drought.
Why? Because while Dubas was playing Elon Musk, accumulating assets, the teams the Leafs must defeat in April/ May/ June were likewise spending hand-over-fist for the available talent during the Deadline. There was enough short-selling to make the TSX declare a halt to trading.
So Leafs Nation is distraught. If they were a lame horse they’d bring out the veterinarian’s wagon. If they were raccoons they’d be trapped and sent away. If they were trees with Dutch elm disease we’d cut them down and burn them for firewood. No hockey fans should live this way. But they do.
If this had been a decade ago there might not have been this much of a free market. Toronto might have stood pat and been okay to make a Cup run. But this year has seen a bull market for Eastern Conference teams employing the same strategy as Toronto. Buy now. Pay later. Here’s the frantic Eastern Conference shopping list from just the past fortnight.
New York Rangers: Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko. Boston Bruins: Dmitry Orlov. New Jersey Devils: Timo Meier. Carolina Hurricanes: Jesse Puljujärvi and Shayne Gostisbehere. New York Islanders: Bo Horvat. Tampa Bay Lightning Tanner Jeannot. Pittsburgh Penguins Mikael Granlund. And so on.
(No wonder Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, the purported big catches by Eastern Conference teams last summer, are going to be sitting at home watching the playoffs and counting the money Calgary couldn’t pay to get them to stay in Alberta. But we digress.)
So the first round of the 2023 playoffs in the East is going to be like the Charge of the Light Brigade. Many will enter the valley. Few will exit. There will be many expensive casualties. For Toronto the first-round opponent will likely be battle-tested Tampa, which beat Toronto in Rd. One last April. And, if you’ve been in a deprivation tank the past six seasons, let us remind you that Toronto has lost every year in the qualifying or first round since 2017. Zero series wins.
Excellent teams, good teams, okay teams. All with the same fate. Which is why Leafs fans are setting themselves up for bad things this spring. On the surface the team looks strong. Loaded with offensive fire power in record-setting Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares, they have 3.37/ goals a game for the season (down from last season’s explosive total but still productive.). Their goals-against was 2.64— and that was before they added defensemen Erik Gustafsson, Luke Schenn, Jake McCabe and others.
There is now depth throughout the skaters for when injuries start to ravage lineups in the playoffs. How many Cup contenders in the recent past have been denied because they ran out off healthy bodies? Give Dubas and coach Sheldon Keefe marks for that. This should work.
But also ask why they have been unable to develop/ trade for/ sign an elite goalie. As it always does, Cup success will all come down to that most enigmatic element. The duo of Ilya Samsonov and Marty Murray are… unpredictable. As of this writing’s Samsonov— the bell cow— is 5-6-1 on the road. Lest we remind you, the Leafs cannot play all their games at home. Meanwhile, Murray— owner of two Stanley Cups from his Pittsburgh days— has battled an ankle injury. His goals-against average is middle of the NHL pack.
This is not to say that neither goalie can’t find the magic elixir. The lore of Cup winners is full of players who find it suddenly in the heat of a Stanley Cup. Murray was one of those guys in his rookie year when he took over from Marc André Fleury and led Pittsburgh to the 2016 Cup. Presto! He simply reversed the narrative. It happens. Just not a lot.
To sum up, the Leafs hopes of breaking the hex will largely depend on finding a goalie who can a) stay healthy b) make the easy saves c) not read the Toronto media. Good luck with that. Maybe buy a lottery ticket too. It can be done.
Adding to the general neurosis of Leafs Nation is the issue of what will another disappointment mean to the future of captain Auston Matthews whose five-year $58.17 million contract is now eligible for an extension. (He and Nylander can both receive extensions this summer.) Comparable salaries mean Matthews will get a top-5 NHL salary going forward if/ when he signs. Also, does he sign for another five years or for eight? Will a Cup win cement him in Toronto for another decade?
Or does the Arizona native— disappointed with failure in blue and white— play out the next season without signing, as did fellow American Johnny Gaudreau, and then return to his homeland to play in a state with no income tax (Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona)? Does he, like Gaudreau and fellow American Tkachuk, simply pine for a warmer climate and familiar friends?
As we say, Leafs Nation needs an intervention before the playoffs start. After that it’s going to take a small miracle.
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Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his new book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-personalaccount.aspx
Bruce Dowbiggin
The Game That Let Canadians Forgive The Liberals — Again

With the Americans winning the first game 3-1, a sense of panic crept over Canada as it headed to Game 2 in Boston. Losing a political battle with Trump was bad enough, but losing hockey bragging rights heading into a federal election was catastrophic for the Family Compact.
“It’s also more political than the (1972) Summit Series was, because Canada’s existence wasn’t on the line then, and it may be now. You’re damn right Canadians should boo the (U.S.) anthem.” Toronto Star columnist Bruce Arthur before Gm. 1 of USA/ Canada in The 4 Nations Cup.
The year 2025 is barely half over on Canada Day. There is much to go before we start assembling Best Of Lists for the year. But as Palestinian flags duel with the Maple Leaf for prominence on the 158th anniversary of Canada’s becoming a sovereign country it’s a fair guess that we will settle on Febuary 21 as the pivotal date of the year— and Canada’s destiny as well.
That was the date of Game 2 in the U.S./Canada rivalry at the Four Nations Tournament. Ostensibly created by the NHL to replace the moribund All Star format, the showdown of hockey nations in Boston became much more. Jolted by non-sports factors it became a pivotal moment in modern Canadian history.
Set against U.S. president Donald Trump’s bellicose talk of Canada as a U.S. state and the Mike Myers/ Mark Carney Elbows Up ad campaign, the gold-medal game evoked, for those of a certain age, memories of the famous 1972 Summit Series between Canada and the USSR. And somehow produced an unprecedented political reversal in Canadian elections.
As we wrote on Feb. 16 after Gm. 1 in Montreal, the Four Nations had been meant to be something far less incendiary. “Expecting a guys’ weekend like the concurrent NBA All Star game, the fraternal folks instead got a Pier Six brawl. It was the most stunning beginning to a game most could remember in 50 years. (Not least of all the rabid Canadian fanbase urging patriotism in the home of Quebec separation) Considering this Four Nations event was the NHL’s idea to replace the tame midseason All Star Game where players apologize for bumping into each other during a casual skate, the tumult as referees tried to start the game was shocking.
“Despite public calls for mutual respect, the sustained booing of the American national anthem and the Team Canada invocation by MMA legend Georges St. Pierre was answered by the Tkachuck brothers, Matthew and Brady, with a series of fights in the first nine seconds of the game. Three fights to be exact ,when former Canuck J.T. Miller squared up with Brandon Hagel. (All three U.S. players have either played on or now play for Canadian NHL teams.)
“Premeditated and nasty. To say nothing of the vicious mugging of Canada’s legend Sidney Crosby behind the U.S. net moments later by Charlie McEvoy.”
With the Americans winning the game 3-1 on Feb. 15, a sense of panic crept over Canada as it headed to Game 2 in Boston. Losing a political battle with Trump was bad enough, but losing hockey bragging rights heading into a federal election was catastrophic for the Family Compact. As we wrote in the aftermath, a slaughter was avoided.

“In the rematch for a title created just weeks before by the NHL the boys stuck to hockey. Anthem booing was restrained. Outside of an ill-advised appearance by Wayne Gretzky— now loathed for his Trump support— the emphasis was on skill. Playing largely without injured Matthew and Brady Tkachuk and McAvoy, the U.S. forced the game to OT where beleaguered goalie Craig Binnington held Canada in the game until Connor McDavid scored the game winner. “
The stunning turnaround in the series produced a similar turnaround in the Canadian federal election. Galvanized by Trump’s 51st State disrespect and exhilarated by the hockey team’s comeback, voters switched their votes in huge numbers to Carney, ignoring the abysmal record of the Liberals and their pathetic polling. From Pierre Poilievre having a 20-point lead in polls, hockey-besotted Canada flipped to award Carney a near-majority in the April 28 election.
The result stunned the Canadian political class and international critics who questioned how a single sporting event could have miraculously rescued the Liberals from themselves in such a short time.

While Canada soared because of the four Nations, a Canadian icon crashed to earth. “Perhaps the most public outcome was the now-demonization of Gretzky in Canada. Just as they had with Bobby Orr, another Canadian superstar living in America, Canadians wiped their hands of No. 99 over politics. Despite appeals from Orr, Don Cherry and others, the chance to make Gretzky a Trump proxy was too tempting.
We have been in several arguments on the subject among friends: Does Gretzky owe Canada something after carrying its hockey burden for so long? Could he have worn a Team Canada jersey? Shouldn’t he have made a statement that he backs Canada in its showdown with Trump? For now 99 is 0 in his homeland.”
Even now, months later, the events of late February have an air of disbelief around them, a shift so dramatic and so impactful on the nation that many still shake their heads. Sure, hockey wasn’t the device that blew up Canada’s politics. But it was the fuse that created a crater in the country.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
Bruce Dowbiggin
What Connor Should Say To Oilers: It’s Not You. It’s Me.

This just in. Connor McDavid is on track to be the greatest hockey player ever. Apologies to the Gretz/ Orr/ Howe partisans. But if he stays healthy and gets the hell out of Edmonton he will be hands-down the best ever. He is equal measures of Gretzky’s intuitive genius, Orr’s 200-foot impact. Howe’s sandpaper attitude. It’s an honour to watch him.
We know, we know, if he is so great why couldn’t he get the Oilers over the hump, particularly the past two seasons against Florida? Gretz, Orr, Howe all won Stanley Cups while leading their teams. So did Mario Lemieux. Fair point. But Howe in his prime never played more than two series in the postseason. Orr often played just three. Gretz teams often bagelled opponents for years.
McDavid’s teams the last two years have had lengthy paths to tred. Just getting to a Final is a huge accomplishment. Repeating that feat (going seven then six games) in the Final is humungous. It’s exhausting, mentally and physically. That’s why so few teams do it.
Still, that’s not the point. We have been asking since 2018 how long McDavid will hobble his legacy by staying in Edmonton. Those early columns were talking about a team that missed playoffs or did a Maple Leafs fold early on. The current iteration of the Oilers has gotten to the brink. They have players who’ve been around a while. And fell short.

Now the Oilers are an old team, the oldest in the regular season, the oldest team in the playoffs this year. Teams carrying more than two plus-30 players have a miserable track record of winning Cups. And the Oilers have zero Grade A prospects in the pipeline. At 28, McDavid is a young guy on their roster. Not good.
As the hockey world knows he can sign an extension on July 1 to follow the contract he has now. Money will be no object as the NHL salary cap (finally) goes up. Term will be forever if he wants it. His running mate Leon Draisaitl is tied up till age 36. The Oilers desperately want him to stay after the Gretzky fiasco in 1988. So what is he going to do? He’s got national endorsements in Canada, but in the U.S.? Connor who? The sky is the limit.
Oilers fans palpitating over the future of their star were looking for hints as to his mindset when he met the media following the Oilers loss in six games to Florida. It was a chance for him to say he’s staying, he loves the place, his wife is committed to freezing every winter in the Alberta capital. He could have cried and said “Mess told me not to do that”.
What they got was a lot of maybe. Yes, he kept the doors open, but he said he needs time to see the landscape till the clock tolls on July 1. He needs to examine whether this veteran team has a future. Because in a few years they’ll be like Howe’s Detroit teams in the 60s, a played-out dynasty.
Under NHL rules no team can contact him about signing. But he will know that everyone will want him at a max deal. Some will offer no state income tax. Some will have teams on the cusp of the Cup he desires (see Matthew Tkachuk to Florida in 2023). Some will be giant U.S. media cities with the ability to make him what Gretzky became in L.A. Some will offer warm weather and anonymity away from the rink.
These are all knowns. For the impatient, teams can approach the Oilers now about a trade. So he’s holding all the cards. It’s prom night and he gets his pick. Unless Edmonton (gulp) jumps the gun on a trade.

Let’s play Peter Pocklington for a minute here and see this from the Oilers’ POV. Pocklington traded Gretzky, because Peter was broke. That’s not Darryl Katz’s problem. His problem is his team is about to get ancient. There is no McDavid for Draisaitl on the horizon. Plus, you’ve tied up several players (Nurse, Nugent Hopkins) to contracts they can’t hope to play up to. And youngish players coming into free agency.
He must address the other side of the 1988 Gretzky equation. How to get full market value for a superstar? Which means getting another star to help Draisaitl going forward. You could let the two play out the string together in Edmonton, of course. But with so many strong teams in Colorado, Vegas, Dallas, even Winnipeg that would be a hard slog. And by the time you realized that it would be too late.
The smart play, as Michael Corleone would say, is move fast. Trade McDavid before the start of next season for a boatload of young players to supplement Draisaitl. Take a short-term PR hit but live to compete another day.
Of course, Katz is not going to trade McDavid. He’s a fanboy owner. He’ll throw the Rexall kitchen sink at him and hope that’s enough. McDavid will be patient (if he’s smart). The “will-he-sign?” drama will bleed into the next season, a millstone for the team. The distractions will mount before Edmonton realizes that an unsigned McDavid is a liability. And Connor on a max deal with a minus team is no bargain either.
Remember the re-structured Oilers won a Cup in 1990 using Mark Messier and the players they got for Gretzky. Think about it, Edmonton.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.
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