Alberta
Game changer: Trans Mountain pipeline expansion complete and starting to flow Canada’s oil to the world
Workers complete the “golden weld” of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion on April 11, 2024 in the Fraser Valley between Hope and Chilliwack, B.C. The project saw mechanical completion on April 30, 2024. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
‘We’re going to be moving into a market where buyers are going to be competing to buy Canadian oil’
It is a game changer for Canada that will have ripple effects around the world.
The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is now complete. And for the first time, global customers can access large volumes of Canadian oil, with the benefits flowing to Canada’s economy and Indigenous communities.
“We’re going to be moving into a market where buyers are going to be competing to buy Canadian oil,” BMO Capital Markets director Randy Ollenberger said recently, adding this is expected to result in a better price for Canadian oil relative to other global benchmarks.
The long-awaited expansion nearly triples capacity on the Trans Mountain system from Edmonton to the West Coast to approximately 890,000 barrels per day. Customers for the first shipments include refiners in China, California and India, according to media reports.
Shippers include all six members of the Pathways Alliance, a group of companies representing 95 per cent of oil sands production that together plan to reduce emissions from operations by 22 megatonnes by 2030 on the way to net zero by 2050.
The first tanker shipment from Trans Mountain’s expanded Westridge Marine Terminal is expected later in May.
Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
The new capacity on the Trans Mountain system comes as demand for Canadian oil from markets outside the United States is on the rise.
According to the Canada Energy Regulator, exports to destinations beyond the U.S. have averaged a record 267,000 barrels per day so far this year, up from about 130,000 barrels per day in 2020 and 33,000 barrels per day in 2017.
“Oil demand globally continues to go up,” said Phil Skolnick, New York-based oil market analyst with Eight Capital.
“Both India and China are looking to add millions of barrels a day of refining capacity through 2030.”
In India, refining demand will increase mainly for so-called medium and heavy oil like what is produced in Canada, he said.
“That’s where TMX is the opportunity for Canada, because that’s the route to get to India.”
Led by India and China, oil demand in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to increase from 36 million barrels per day in 2022 to 52 million barrels per day in 2050, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
More oil coming from Canada will shake up markets for similar world oil streams including from Russia, Ecuador, and Iraq, according to analysts with Rystad Energy and Argus Media.
Expanded exports are expected to improve pricing for Canadian heavy oil, which “have been depressed for many years” in part due to pipeline shortages, according to TD Economics.
Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
In recent years, the price for oil benchmark Western Canadian Select (WCS) has hovered between $18-$20 lower than West Texas Intermediate (WTI) “to reflect these hurdles,” analyst Marc Ercolao wrote in March.
“That spread should narrow as a result of the Trans Mountain completion,” he wrote.
“Looking forward, WCS prices could conservatively close the spread by $3–4/barrel later this year, which will incentivize production and support industry profitability.”
Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office has said that an increase of US$5 per barrel for Canadian heavy oil would add $6 billion to Canada’s economy over the course of one year.
The Trans Mountain Expansion will leave a lasting economic legacy, according to an impact assessment conducted by Ernst & Young in March 2023.
In addition to $4.9 billion in contracts with Indigenous businesses during construction, the project leaves behind more than $650 million in benefit agreements and $1.2 billion in skills training with Indigenous communities.
Ernst & Young found that between 2024 and 2043, the expanded Trans Mountain system will pay $3.7 billion in wages, generate $9.2 billion in GDP, and pay $2.8 billion in government taxes.
From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is calling on the City of Calgary to scrap the Calgary Arts Development Authority after it spent $65,000 on a telephone line to the Bow River.
“If someone wants to listen to a river, they can go sit next to one, but the City of Calgary should not force taxpayers to pay for this,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “If phoning a river floats your boat, you do you, but don’t force your neighbour to pay for your art choices.”
The City of Calgary spent $65,194 of taxpayers’ money for an art project dubbed “Reconnecting to the Bow” to set up a telephone line so people could call the Bow River and listen to the sound of water.
The project is running between September 2024 and December 2025, according to documents obtained by the CTF.
The art installation is a rerun of a previous version set up back in 2014.
Emails obtained by the CTF show the bureaucrats responsible for the newest version of the project wanted a new local 403 area code phone number instead of an 1-855 number to “give the authority back to the Bow,” because “the original number highlighted a proprietary and commercial relationship with the river.”
Further correspondence obtained by the CTF shows the city did not want its logo included in the displays, stating the “City of Calgary (does NOT want to have its logo on the artworks or advertisements).”
Taxpayers pay about $19 million per year for the Calgary Arts Development Authority. That’s equivalent to the total property tax bill for about 7,000 households.
Calgary bureaucrats also expressed concern the project “may not be received well, perceived as a waste of money or simply foolish.”
“That city hall employee was pointing out the obvious: This is a foolish waste of taxpayers’ money and this slush fund should be scrapped,” said Sims. “Artists should work with willing donors for their projects instead of mooching off city hall and forcing taxpayers to pay for it.”
News release from the RCMP and Parks Canada
Parks Canada and RCMP continue to respond to a rockslide at Bow Glacier Falls near Bow Lake, approximately 37 km north of Lake Louise in Banff National Park. Search and rescue operations resumed at 6:30 am on June 20, 2025.
RCMP confirm that the individual located deceased at the scene on June 19, 2025, was a 70-year-old female resident of Calgary, Alberta. RCMP also confirm that a second deceased individual was recovered on the morning of June 20, 2025. RCMP is notifying their next of kin and no further information is available at this time. Three individuals transported to hospital by STARS and ground ambulance on June 19, 2025 were all in stable condition at last report.
At this time, there are no additional persons reported missing and no additional unidentified vehicles at the trailhead located at Bow Lake.
Parks Canada and RCMP extend our deepest condolences to the families and friends of the two individuals who lost their lives, our hearts are with them. Our thoughts also remain with those in hospital and we hope for their full recovery.
In a continued effort to complete a thorough assessment, Parks Canada visitor safety teams continue work today with support from a geotechnical engineer with Canada Task Force One (CAN-TF1 Vancouver), as well as members of Canada Task Force Two (CAN-TF2 Calgary) and their partners in the Calgary Police Service.
The safety of first responders and park visitors is our top priority.
Bow Lake and the trail to Bow Hut have reopened. Bow Glacier Falls remains closed to all visitors. The NOTAM (no-fly zone) remains in place to ensure public safety and for park operations. Parks Canada and RCMP thank visitors for giving teams space to work safely.
The Icefields Parkway (Highway 93N) remains open with potential intermittent, short-term traffic stoppages in the vicinity of the incident. Heavy precipitation including snow is occurring on the Icefields Parkway. Please check the weather forecast and Alberta 511 before travelling.
Banff National Park remains open and safe to visit.
Updates will be provided as more information is available.
BACKGROUND:
RCMP AND PARKS CANADA – JOINT STATEMENT #2
June 20, 2025 8:10 AM
Lake Louise, Alberta – On June 19, 2025, at 1 pm Parks Canada received a report of a serious rockfall at Bow Glacier Falls located west of the Icefields Parkway (Highway 93N) near Bow Lake, which is approximately 37 km north of Lake Louise in Banff National Park.
Parks Canada wardens and RCMP remained on site overnight. Parks Canada visitor safety teams will continue working today with support from Canada Task Force Two (CAN-TF2 Calgary), a national disaster response team.
CAN-TF2 is conducting infrared flights, through their partners in the Calgary Police Service, in a continued effort to complete a thorough assessment. A Canada Task Force One (CAN-TF1 Vancouver) geotechnical engineer will conduct a slope stability assessment. The safety of first responders and park visitors is our top priority.
As reported yesterday, one person was located deceased at the location on June 19th. RCMP are working to notify next of kin. No further information about this individual is available.
Bow Lake remains closed to all visitors. A NOTAM (no-fly zone) remains in place to ensure public safety and for park operations. Parks Canada and RCMP thank visitors for giving teams space to work safely.
Alpine Club of Canada guests staying at Bow Hut are safe. Visitors staying at Bow Hut will be able to exit on schedule via the usual route, which is unaffected and safe to travel.
The Icefields Parkway (Highway 93N) remains open with potential intermittent, short-term traffic stoppages in the vicinity of the incident. Heavy precipitation including snow occurring on the Icefields Parkway. Please check the weather forecast and Alberta 511 before travelling.
Banff National Park remains open and safe to visit.
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