Energy
Fossil fuels not going away anytime soon
From the Fraser Institute
At a time of persistent cost of living pressures and mounting worldwide geopolitical tension, it’s not surprising that energy issues are in the spotlight in Canada and beyond.
Earlier this year, the Trudeau government decided to freeze its carbon tax for home heating fuels in Atlantic Canada in the face of ferocious opposition to further tax hikes from premiers, local communities and MPs in the region. Smart politicians understand that Canadians today are attuned as never before to energy prices, including fuel prices at the pump.
With policymakers in Canada and elsewhere also preoccupied with climate change, we are exposed to sharply conflicting narratives about the future of energy. In one corner are those who spy a rapid and epic shift away from the fossil fuels that still supply 80 per cent of the world’s energy. In the other corner are skeptics who doubt that the dominant place of fossil fuels in the energy system will soon disappear.
As the debate continues, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is an important source of well-grounded information. It provides regular updates on trends in energy supply and demand, both in the United States and globally. EIA forecasts deserve attention given the agency’s solid track record of predicting energy market developments.
On crude oil prices, the EIA now believes the main U.S. benchmark price will hover between US$85 and $90 per barrel over 2024-25. That’s good news for Canada, as crude oil ranks as our number one export. In its May 2024 market update, the EIA observes that “the startup of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion… will alleviate existing distribution bottlenecks and allow for a gradual increase in oil production.” While one would never know it from scanning federal government news releases, Canadian oil production and export volumes are set to climb over the rest of the decade. And Canada’s energy-based export earnings will also receive a sizable boost once shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG) commence from LNG projects nearing completion in British Columbia.
Meanwhile, the EIA sees global oil consumption increasing further, after dipping briefly during the pandemic, reaching 105 million barrels per day by 2026.
Globally, there’s little evidence that consumers are turning away from petroleum and other liquid fuels, contrary to the claims of some Canadian politicians and environmental groups. Amid endless chatter about energy transitions and governments allocating gargantuan sums to an expanding hodgepodge of programs to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the world collectively still depends on oil and other carbon-based fuels for the vast majority of its energy.
None of this is surprising. The “dense” energy provided by fossil fuels is greatly valued by consumers and remains difficult to replace with other primary energy sources. Fossil fuels have played a central role in economic development since the dawn of industrialization. That will not change anytime soon.
Which is why the EIA doesn’t expect much progress in reducing GHG emissions in the coming one or two decades. In its recent comprehensive forecast, it projects that “global energy-related… emissions will increase through 2050” under almost all of the policy scenarios it models.
How can that be, with all of the political attention being given to climate change in many countries? Because rising populations and incomes, particularly in China, India and other emerging economies, “will offset the effects of declining energy and carbon intensity on emissions.” And also because outside of the electricity sector, there simply aren’t enough reliable cost-effective non-fossil fuel energy sources to satisfy the world’s still growing need for energy.
Author:
Alberta
IEA peak-oil reversal gives Alberta long-term leverage
This article supplied by Troy Media.
The peak-oil narrative has collapsed, and the IEA’s U-turn marks a major strategic win for Alberta
After years of confidently predicting that global oil demand was on the verge of collapsing, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has now reversed course—a stunning retreat that shatters the peak-oil narrative and rewrites the outlook for oil-producing regions such as Alberta.
For years, analysts warned that an oil glut was coming. Suddenly, the tide has turned. The Paris-based IEA, the world’s most influential energy forecasting body, is stepping back from its long-held view that peak oil demand is just around the corner.
The IEA reversal is a strategic boost for Alberta and a political complication for Ottawa, which now has to reconcile its climate commitments with a global outlook that no longer supports a rapid decline in fossil fuel use or the doomsday narrative Ottawa has relied on to advance its climate agenda.
Alberta’s economy remains tied to long-term global demand for reliable, conventional energy. The province produces roughly 80 per cent of Canada’s oil and depends on resource revenues to fund a significant share of its provincial budget. The sector also plays a central role in the national economy, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs and contributing close to 10 per cent of Canada’s GDP when related industries are included.
That reality stands in sharp contrast to Ottawa. Prime Minister Mark Carney has long championed net-zero timelines, ESG frameworks and tighter climate policy, and has repeatedly signalled that expanding long-term oil production is not part of his economic vision. The new IEA outlook bolsters Alberta’s position far more than it aligns with his government’s preferred direction.
Globally, the shift is even clearer. The IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook, released on Nov. 12, makes the reversal unmistakable. Under existing policies and regulations, global demand for oil and natural gas will continue to rise well past this decade and could keep climbing until 2050. Demand reaches 105 million barrels per day in 2035 and 113 million barrels per day in 2050, up from 100 million barrels per day last year, a direct contradiction of years of claims that the world was on the cusp of phasing out fossil fuels.
A key factor is the slowing pace of electric vehicle adoption, driven by weakening policy support outside China and Europe. The IEA now expects the share of electric vehicles in global car sales to plateau after 2035. In many countries, subsidies are being reduced, purchase incentives are ending and charging-infrastructure goals are slipping. Without coercive policy intervention, electric vehicle adoption will not accelerate fast enough to meaningfully cut oil demand.
The IEA’s own outlook now shows it wasn’t merely off in its forecasts; it repeatedly projected that oil demand was in rapid decline, despite evidence to the contrary. Just last year, IEA executive director Fatih Birol told the Financial Times that we were witnessing “the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.” The new outlook directly contradicts that claim.
The political landscape also matters. U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House shifted global expectations. The United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement, reversed Biden-era climate measures and embraced an expansion of domestic oil and gas production. As the world’s largest economy and the IEA’s largest contributor, the U.S. carries significant weight, and other countries, including Canada and the United Kingdom, have taken steps to shore up energy security by keeping existing fossil-fuel capacity online while navigating their longer-term transition plans.
The IEA also warns that the world is likely to miss its goal of limiting temperature increases to 1.5 °C over pre-industrial levels. During the Biden years, the IAE maintained that reaching net-zero by mid-century required ending investment in new oil, gas and coal projects. That stance has now faded. Its updated position concedes that demand will not fall quickly enough to meet those targets.
Investment banks are also adjusting. A Bloomberg report citing Goldman Sachs analysts projects global oil demand could rise to 113 million barrels per day by 2040, compared with 103.5 million barrels per day in 2024, Irina Slav wrote for Oilprice.com. Goldman cites slow progress on net-zero policies, infrastructure challenges for wind and solar and weaker electric vehicle adoption.
“We do not assume major breakthroughs in low-carbon technology,” Sachs’ analysts wrote. “Even for peaking road oil demand, we expect a long plateau after 2030.” That implies a stable, not shrinking, market for oil.
OPEC, long insisting that peak demand is nowhere in sight, feels vindicated. “We hope … we have passed the peak in the misguided notion of ‘peak oil’,” the organization said last Wednesday after the outlook’s release.
Oil is set to remain at the centre of global energy demand for years to come, and for Alberta, Canada’s energy capital, the IEA’s course correction offers renewed certainty in a world that had been prematurely writing off its future.
Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.
Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.
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