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Finance minister misleading Canadians about economic growth

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland recently said Canada will have “the strongest economic growth in the G7.” But is that true? And are Canadians better off because of it?

The Trudeau government regularly uses comparisons among  G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States) to gauge Canada’s economic performance. And when comparing economic growth in the aggregate (meaning overall growth, as measured by GDP), Minister Freeland is correct that Canada’s economy performs well compared to the rest of the G7.

Specifically, from 2000 to 2023, Canada’s average GDP growth (adjusted for inflation) was second-highest in the G7 at 1.8 per cent annually (only behind the U.S.). And in a recent report, the International Monetary Fund projected that Canada’s overall GDP growth will be second-highest in 2024, and lead the G7 in 2025.

But there’s a serious problem with these measures—they fail to account for population growth rates in each country and therefore don’t measure whether or not individuals are actually better off.

Simply put, economies grow when there are more people producing goods and services (i.e. the population grows) or when people are able to produce more per hour worked (i.e. productivity increases). In recent years, the Canadian economy has grown almost exclusively due to population growth, which has grown at historic rates due to record levels of immigration, while productivity has declined to the point it’s now considered an emergency.

In fact, from 2000 to 2023, Canada led the G7 in average annual population growth, which has served to inflate the country’s rate of aggregate GDP growth.

So, to more accurately measure Canada’s economic performance relative to other countries, economists use GDP per person, which accounts for differing population growth rates. This measure is a much better indicator of individual incomes and living standards.

On this measure, Canada is an economic laggard. Canada’s average annual growth rate in GDP per person (inflation-adjusted) from 2000 to 2023 was 0.7 per cent—tied for second-last in the G7, above only Italy (0.1 per cent).

If you include a broader subset of advanced economies, and focus on the Trudeau government’s tenure, the picture is even worse. From 2014 to 2022 (the latest year of available data), Canada was tied for the third-lowest average annual growth rate in inflation-adjusted GDP per person out of 30 countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Canada’s average growth rate during that period (0.6 per cent) was only ahead of Luxembourg (0.5 per cent) and Mexico (0.4 per cent).

Looking ahead, Canada’s long-term economic prospects are similarly dismal. According to the OECD, Canada is expected to see the lowest average annual growth rate in GDP per person in the OECD, from 2020 to 2030 and 2030 to 2060.

When Minister Freeland boasts about aggregate GDP numbers—while ignoring how historic levels of population growth fuelled by record-high immigration inflate the numbers—she’s misleading Canadians. In reality, Canadian living standards are falling behind the rest of the developed world, and are expected to fall further behind in years to come.

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2025 Federal Election

Poilievre to let working seniors keep more of their money

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By Franco Terrazzano 

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation welcomes the Conservative Party’s promise to boost the basic personal amount for working seniors and calls on all parties to commit to further tax relief.

“Many seniors are working because they’re struggling to pay the bills and this tax relief will help them,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Letting working seniors earn an extra $10,000 tax-free is a good thing and it will make their golden years more affordable.”

Today, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre announced he would expand the tax-free portion of seniors’ incomes.

Poilievre said he would “increase the basic personal amount for working seniors to $25,000, meaning seniors will be able earn an additional $10,000 of employment income tax free.”

Poilievre estimates this would “save a working senior making $35,000 a year an extra $1,300.”

The Conservative Party also promises income tax relief that would save a two-income family up to $1,800. The Liberal Party promises income tax relief that would save a two-income family up to $825.

“The best way the government can make life more affordable is to let people keep more of their own money,” Terrazzano said. “All parties should commit to further tax relief, especially for Canadian businesses which need to be competitive in the wake of American tariffs.”

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2025 Federal Election

Voters should remember Canada has other problems beyond Trump’s tariffs

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

Canadians will head to the polls on April 28 after Prime Minister Mark Carney called a snap federal election on Sunday. As the candidates make their pitch to try and convince Canadians why they’re best-suited to lead the country, Trump’s tariffs will take centre stage. But while the tariff issue is important, let’s not forget the other important issues Canadians face.

High Taxes: As many Canadians struggle to make ends meet, taxes remain the largest single expense. In 2023, the latest year of available data, the average Canadian family spent 43.0 per cent of its income on taxes compared to 35.6 per cent on food, shelter and clothing combined. High personal income tax rates also make it harder to attract and retain doctors, engineers and other high-skilled workers that contribute to the economy. Tax relief, which delivers savings for families across the income spectrum while also improving Canada’s competitiveness on the world stage, is long overdue.

Government Debt: At the end of March, Canada’s total federal debt will reach a projected $2.2 trillion or $52,094 for every man, woman and child in Canada. The federal government expects to pay $53.7 billion in debt interest costs in fiscal year 2024/25, diverting taxpayer dollars away from programs including health care and social services. The next federal government should rein in spending and stop racking up debt.

Red Tape: Smart regulation is necessary, but the Canadian economy is plagued by a costly and excessive regulatory burden imposed by governments. Regulatory compliance costs the economy approximately $12.2 billion each year, and the average business dedicates an estimated 85 days towards compliance. The next federal government should cut undue red tape and make Canada an easier place to do business.

Housing Affordability: Canadians across the country are struggling with the cost of housing. Indeed, Canada has the largest gap between home prices and incomes among G7 countries, and rents have spiked in recent years in many cities. In short, there’s not enough housing to meet demand. The next federal government should avoid policies that stoke further demand while working with the provinces and municipalities to remove impediments to homebuilding across Canada.

Collapsing Business Investment: Business investment is necessary to equip workers with the tools, technology and training they need to be more productive, yet business investment has collapsed. Specifically, from 2014 to 2021, inflation-adjusted business investment per worker fell from $18,363 to $14,687. Declining investment has helped create Canada’s productivity crisis, which has led to a decline in Canadian living standards. Clearly, Ottawa needs a new policy approach to address this crisis.

Declining Living Standards: According to Statistics Canada, inflation-adjusted per-person GDP—a broad measure of living standards—dropped  from the post-pandemic peak of $60,718 in mid-2022 to $58,951 by the end of 2024. The next government should swiftly reverse this trend by enacting meaningful policy reforms that will help promote prosperity. The status quo simply will not suffice.

Tariffs are a clear threat to the Canadian economy and should be discussed at length during this election. But we shouldn’t forget other important issues that arose long before President Trump began this trade war and will continue to hurt Canadians if not addressed.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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