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Federal government could save $10.7 billion by eliminating eight spending initiatives

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

During its tenure, the Trudeau government rejected any semblance of spending restraint and increased spending (and borrowing) at every turn. However, due to the rising cost of deficits and debt, coupled with pressures to increase spending in neglected areas such as defence, the next federal government—whoever that may be—may finally be forced to find savings and reduce spending.

But where to look?

The government should immediately review all spending on the basis of efficiency, value for money, and the appropriate role of government—similar to the spending review initiated by the federal Chrétien government during the 1990s. Here are some line items ripe for the cutting board.

Spending Area Projected Spending in 2024/25
Regional Development Agencies $1.5 billion
Government Supports for Journalism $1.7 billion
Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles $0.6 billion
2 Billion Trees $0.3 billion
Canada Infrastructure Bank $3.5 billion
Strategic Innovation Fund $2.4 billion
Global Innovation Clusters $0.2 billion
Green Municipal Fund $0.5 billion
Total Potential Savings $10.7 billion

Regional Development Agencies: The federal government operates seven Regional Development Agencies (RDAs), which deliver financial assistance (a.k.a. corporate welfare) to businesses. Despite spending an estimated $1.5 billion in federal taxpayer money in 2024/25, the RDAs do not provide any widespread economic benefits to Canadians. Instead, they simply redistribute those dollars to private firms and pick winners and losers in the free market. When reporting on the results, the government offers vague platitudes such as “businesses are growing” and “communities are developing economically.”

Government Money for Journalism: In 2024/25 the federal government spent an estimated $1.7 billion to support Canadian journalism including the operating costs (e.g. wages) of newspapers and broadcast outlets such as the CBC. Despite these efforts, and the considerable price tag, hundreds of news organizations have closed since 2020 and layoffs have persisted—largely due to the disruptive effects of the Internet. Simply put, the traditional media sector is in decline, and the government’s costly attempts to reverse this trend have been ineffective.

Federal Support for Electric Vehicle Purchases: As part of its push to reduce emissions, the federal government will spend an estimated $587.6 million to subsidize electric vehicle (EV) purchases in 2024/25. This spending is inefficient and wasteful. EV incentives are expensive—costing a minimum of $177 per tonne of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, whereas the federal carbon tax in 2024 was much cheaper at $80 per tonne of GHG emissions.

The 2 Billion Trees (2BT) Program: Ottawa has earmarked $3.2 billion for the program from 2021 to 2031, with expenses in 2024-25 alone estimated at $340 million. While laudable in theory, the program has been poorly executed. In its first two years, the federal government spent roughly 15.0 per cent of the total budget to plant merely 2.3 per cent of the two billion trees. In fact, the 2BT program has used trees planted under a different program to artificially boost its numbers.

Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB): Established in 2017, the CIB is a federal Crown corporation tasked with investing and attracting investment in Canadian infrastructure projects. Over its more than seven-year lifespan, the CIB has approved approximately $13.2 billion in investments across 76 projects (as of July 2024). In 2024/25, federal CIB funding will equal $3.5 billion. Though multiple problems plague the CIB, chief among them is its inefficiency in advancing projects. As of July 2024, only two CIB-funded projects had been completed. This lack of progress was a chief concern in a previous House of Commons committee report that made the sole recommendation to abolish the CIB.

Strategic Innovation Fund (SIF): With federal grants and contributions, the SIF funds projects based on their purported potential to deliver innovation and economic benefits for Canadians. While Canada certainly suffers from a lack of innovation, this spending (to the tune of $2.4 billion in 2024/25) simply shifts jobs and investment dollars away from other firms and industries—with no net benefit for the overall economy. Similarly, increased government spending on innovation may simply crowd out private-sector investment, leading to no net increase in innovation investment.

Global Innovation Clusters (GIC): The federal government launched the GIC program, like the SIF, to address the lack of innovation in Canada. The government expects to disperse $202.3 million through the GIC in 2024/25 alone, targeting the five “clusters” of business activity the government chose in 2018. But again, because the clusters represent specific industries and technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence, marine technologies, manufacturing), the federal government is incentivizing firms to spend time and resources modifying their businesses to secure grant rather than focusing on the development of new/improved goods and services.

Green Municipal Fund (GMF): The GMF spends federal tax dollars on municipal projects that purportedly accelerate the transition to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In 2024/25, the federal government will contribute $530 million to the fund. While the fund maintains emissions-reduction targets for projects, several projects approved for funding will not reduce GHG emissions in any measurable way—for example, “climate-friendly” home tours and funding for climate advocacy groups in Ottawa. In other words, the GMF is spending taxpayer dollars on projects that make no apparent progress towards the GMF’s stated goal.

In total, these eight spending initiatives add up to approximately $10.7 billion in potential savings for the 2024-25 fiscal year alone. And remember, these are just the low-hanging fruit. The next federal government can find further savings through a more comprehensive review of all spending.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

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New federal government should pull the plug on Canada’s EV revolution

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During his victory speech Monday night, Prime Minister Mark Carney repeated one of his favourite campaign slogans and vowed to make Canada a “clean energy superpower.” So, Canadians can expect Ottawa to “invest” more taxpayer money in “clean energy” projects including electric vehicles (EVs), the revolutionary transportation technology that’s been ready to replace internal combustion since 1901 yet still requires government subsidies.

It’s a good time for a little historical review. In 2012 south of the border, the Obama administration poured massive subsidies into companies peddling green tech, only to see a vast swath go belly up including Solyndra, would-be maker of advanced solar panels, which failed so spectacularly CNN called the company the “poster child for well-meaning government policy gone bad.”

One might think that such a spectacular failure might have served as a cautionary tale for today’s politicians. But one would be wrong. Even as the EV transition slammed into stiff headwinds, the Trudeau government and Ontario’s Ford government poured $5 billion in subsidies into Honda to build an EV battery plant and manufacture EVs in Ontario. That “investment” came on top of a long list of other “investments” including $15 billion for Stellantis and LG Energy Solution; $13 billion for Volkswagen (or $16.3 billion, per the Parliamentary Budget Officer), a combined $4.24 billion (federal/Quebec split) to Northvolt, a Swedish battery maker, and a combined $644 million (federal/Quebec split) to Ford Motor Company to build a cathode manufacturing plant in Quebec.

How’s all that working out? Not great.

“Projects announced for Canada’s EV supply chain are in various states of operation, and many remain years away from production,” notes automotive/natural resource reporter Gabriel Friedman, writing in the Financial Post. “Of the four multibillion-dollar battery cell manufacturing plants announced for Canada, only one—a joint venture known as NextStar Energy Inc. between South Korea’s LG Energy Solution Ltd. and European automaker Stellantis NV—progressed into even the construction phase.”

In 2023, Volkswagen said it would invest $7 billion by 2030 to build a battery cell manufacturing complex in St. Thomas, Ontario. However, Friedman notes “construction of the VW plant is not scheduled to begin until this spring [2025] and initial cell production will not begin for years.” Or ever, if Donald Trump’s pledge to end U.S. government support for a broad EV transition comes to pass.

In the meantime, other elements of Canada’s “clean tech” future are also in doubt. In December 2024, Saint-Jérome, Que.-based Lion Electric Co., which had received $100 million in provincial and government support to assemble batteries in Canada for electric school buses and trucks, said it would file for bankruptcy in the United States and creditor protection in Canada. And Ford Motor Company last summer scrapped its planned EV assembly plant in Oakville, Ontario—after $640 million in federal and provincial support.

And of course, there’s Canada’s own poster-child-of-clean-tech-subsidy failure, Northvolt. According to the CBC, the Swedish battery manufacturer, with plans to build a $7 billion factory in Quebec, has declared bankruptcy in Sweden, though Northvolt claims that its North American operations are “solvent.” That’s cold comfort to some Quebec policymakers: “We’re going to be losing hundreds of millions of dollars in a bet that our government in Quebec made on a poorly negotiated investment,” said Parti Québécois MNA Pascal Paradis.

Elections often bring about change. If the Carney government wants to change course and avoid more clean-tech calamities, it should pull the plug on the EV revolution and avoid any more electro-boondoggles.

Kenneth P. Green

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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Business

Losses Could Reach Nearly One Billion: When Genius Failed…..Again

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Illustration by Daniel Medina

By Eric Salzman

The smartest guys in the room fall for the same scam twice in less than 5 years

THE SCHEME: Fraud and Money Laundering

THE COMPANY: Stenn Technologies

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THE NEWS: For the second time in five years, a scam involving sexing up a boring, centuries old financing business blew up in the faces of some of the world’s largest banks

You know the old saying. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…

In December, “fintech” supply chain financier Stenn Technologies and its subsidiaries Stenn Assets UK Ltd and Stenn International Ltd, collapsed, spanking investors and lenders such as Citigroup, Nexis, BNP Paribas, HSBC and private equity firm Centerbridge. Just a month prior to the blow-up, Stenn was viewed as a fintech unicorn with a robust $1 billion book of business, poised for strong growth.

As we’ve seen time and again, a unicorn can quickly die when a company’s business model screams fraud to anyone bothering to look.

Stenn Technologies claimed to use artificial intelligence and state of the art technology to analyze credit and money laundering risk in order to turn a low margin, supply chain financing business into an awesome, high return, low risk securitized product.

Here’s a quick explanation of supply chain financing:

1. A company delivers its product to a buyer and the buyer promises to pay in a few months’ time, creating an accounts receivable.

2. The company that has the accounts receivable sends it to the supply chain financier (Greensill Capital or Stenn Technologies).

3. The supply chain financier pays the company cash for the receivable minus a discount which is another business practice called factoring.

4. The buyer pays the financier the full amount of the receivable on the due date.

Supply chain financing is nothing new. It was probably around when Marco Polo set out for the Orient.

If it sounds boring, that’s because it is, or at least is supposed to be. Lex Greensill’s Greensill Capital changed that a decade ago.

Through fancy structuring, as well as four private jets, Greensill created a byzantine circular loop where money flowed around the world, much of it to Greensill favorites like steel maker Sanjeev Gupta and then back again. The operation was continuously funded by either GAM, Credit Suisse, SoftBank as well as Greensill’s own German bank, Greensill Bank AG. After a while, as more money poured into Greensill from eager investors, the company began to essentially just lend money out, mostly to Gupta while calling the transactions “future receivables.”

Greensill Capital collapsed under the weight of fraud in 2021, costing its big investors mentioned above billions. Matt reported on the story here in 2021.

Greensill’s receivable notes (the fancy structuring) were insured by a number of insurers, the biggest being Japanese insurer Tokio Marine. The insurance made investors comfortable because, if Tokio Marine insured it, the notes have to be money good, right?

Wrong.

At one point, Tokio had nearly $8 billion of exposure to Greensill deals. How insurers got comfortable with insuring receivables to a blizzard of shell companies that all seemed to point back to Gupta and Lex’s pockets is anyone’s guess, but when Tokio finally did a good look under the hood, they cried insurance fraud and Greensill came crashing down. Credit Suisse investors alone lost $10 billion.

At this point, we need to hear from Lt. Commander Montgomery Scott, better known as Scotty.

So now, we’re at the shame on you portion of the story.

Astoundingly, Stenn Technologies was able to pull off a similar scam just a couple of years later, posing as a fintech company, supposedly using the latest in technology to do global supply chain financing faster and better than everyone else in the business.

The victims are new, but given the high publicity of Greensill’s failure, you’d figure they would catch on.

According to Bloomberg News, “Stenn’s main backers were Citigroup Inc., BNP Paribas SA, Natixis and HSBC Holdings Plc while Barclays Plc, M&G Plc and Goldman Sachs Group also backed the transaction.”

Private equity firm Centerbridge invested $50 million in capital and valued the company at $900 million in 2022.

In 2022, TechCrunch described the secret sauce that Stenn was supposedly using to bring a 13th century business into the modern age.

Stenn — which applies big data analytics, taking a few datapoints about a business (the main two being what money it has coming in and going out based on invoices) and matching them up against an algorithm that takes some 1,000 other factors into account to determine its eligibility for a loan of up to $10 million; and on the other side taps a network of institutions and other big lenders to provide the capital for that financing.

Perhaps this multi-factor algorithm was super cool when they showed it to investors and lending partners. The only problem was Stenn, in the words of a business crime attorney who spoke to Bloomberg, “has all the hallmarks of both fraud and money laundering.”

Greensill might have been a bit hard to figure out with large, respected insurance companies insuring their notes.

But anyone who took the time to investigate Stenn Technologies by simply looking at the data they pumped out to investors weekly would have seen the scheme for what it was.

While it appears the previously mentioned institutional investors didn’t bother to investigate, Bloomberg did and the results were darkly hilarious.

Some of Stenn’s biggest suppliers were tiny companies in Thailand and Hong Kong with little in common yet corporate filings for all of them list the same Russian name as a backer. One in Singapore was accused by the U.S. of enabling payments to Russian naval intelligence and sanctioned in August. Tracing a group owned by another Russian investor that was supposedly shipping millions of dollars of goods to corporations in Switzerland and Canada led to a derelict Prague building with boarded-up windows.

Bloomberg contacted the largest 50 firms that were supposedly the buyers for what Stenn’s suppliers produced, and the bulk had no idea who Stenn Technologies or these suppliers were! A spokesman for Edion Corp., one of the biggest electronics retailers in Japan, told Bloomberg, “we have absolutely no knowledge of this matter. We really have no idea what it’s about.”

Essentially, the data produced by Stenn highlighted thousands of bogus transactions on a weekly basis to investors, lying about who was paying and who was receiving billions of dollars of funds. According to Bloomberg, investors received these details with the name of the suppliers and buyers included. Therefore, at any time, investors could have done a sanity check on these obscure suppliers to see who they were, or in this case, weren’t.

HSBC finally caught up to what Stenn was doing. Again from the Bloomberg report:

HSBC triggered Stenn’s downfall when it lodged an application to the UK courts, alleging that its officials had uncovered ‘deeply troubling issues on a large scale.’ The
invoices at the heart of the deal weren’t ‘genuine debts’ and payments to suppliers weren’t coming from ‘blue-chip companies’ but from bogus firms with similar names, according to the complaint filed by the London-based bank.

Investors are facing a potential loss of $200 million, although it could be a lot more as $978 million in invoiced-financed notes are outstanding, Bloomberg reports.

There is a bright side to Stenn’s collapse though. A senior trade finance official told The Sunday Times:

“The saving grace here is at least it’s smaller than Greensill.”

Well played.

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