Economy
Extreme Weather and Climate Change

From the Fraser Insitute
Contrary to claims by many climate activists and politicians, extreme weather events—including forest fires, droughts, floods and hurricanes—are not increasing in frequency or intensity, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“Earth Day has become a time when extraordinary claims are made about extreme weather events, but before policymakers act on those extreme claims—often with harmful regulations—it’s important to study the actual evidence,” said Kenneth Green, a senior fellow with the Fraser Institute and author of Extreme Weather and Climate Change.
The study finds that global temperatures have increased moderately since 1950 but there is no evidence that extreme weather events are on the rise, including:
• Drought: Data from the World Meteorological Organization Standardized Precipitation Index showed no statistically significant trends in drought duration or magnitude—with the exception of some small regions in Africa and South America—from 1900 to 2020.
• Flooding: Research in the Journal of Hydrology in 2017, analyzing 9,213 recording stations around the world, found there were more stations exhibiting significant decreasing trends (in flood risk) than increasing trends.
• Hurricanes: Research conducted for the World Meteorological Organization in 2019 (updated in 2023) found no long-term trends in hurricanes or major hurricanes recorded globally going back to 1980.
• Forest Fires: The Royal Society in London, in 2020, found that when considering the total area burned at the global level, there is no overall increase, but rather a decline over the last decades. In Canada, data from Canada’s Wildland Fire Information System show that the number of fires and the area burned in Canada have both been declining over the past 30 years.
“The evidence is clear—many of the claims that extreme weather events are increasing are simply not empirically true,” Green said.
“Before governments impose new regulations or enact new programs, they need to study the actual data and base their actions on facts, not unsubstantiated claims.”
- Assertions are made claiming that weather extremes are increasing in frequency and severity, spurred on by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions.
- Based on such assertions, governments are enacting ever more restrictive regulations on Canadian consumers of energy products, and especially Canada’s energy sector. These regulations impose significant costs on the Canadian economy, and can exert downward pressure on Canadian’s standard of living.
- According to the UN IPCC, evidence does suggest that some types of extreme weather have become more extreme, particularly those relating to temperature trends.
- However, many types of extreme weather show no signs of increasing and in some cases are decreasing. Drought has shown no clear increasing trend, nor has flooding. Hurricane intensity and number show no increasing trend. Globally, wildfires have shown no clear trend in increasing number or intensity, while in Canada, wildfires have actually been decreasing in number and areas consumed from the 1950s to the present.
- While media and political activists assert that the evidence for increasing harms from increasing extreme weather is iron-clad, it is anything but. In fact, it is quite limited, and of low reliability. Claims about extreme weather should not be used as the basis for committing to long-term regulatory regimes that will hurt current Canadian standards of living, and leave future generations worse off.
Author:
The Fraser Institute is an independent Canadian public policy research and educational
organization with offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal and ties to a global
network of think-tanks in 87 countries. Its mission is to improve the quality of life for Canadians,
their families and future generations by studying, measuring and broadly communicating the
effects of government policies, entrepreneurship and choice on their well-being. To protect the
Institute’s independence, it does not accept grants from governments or contracts for research.
Visit www.fraserinstitute.org
Business
Mark Carney is Planning to Hide His Revised, Sneaky Carbon Tax and This Time, No Rebates

Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney seems to think giving you a discount code on a new furnace or some extra insulation is the best way to help you with affordability.
And he’s going to pay for the discounts by hitting businesses like fuel refineries and power plants with a hidden carbon tax. Of course, those businesses will just pass on the cost.
Bottom line: You still get hit with that hidden carbon tax when you buy gas or pay your bills.
But it gets worse.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at least attempted to give you some of the carbon tax money back through rebates. The Parliamentary Budget Officer consistently made it clear the rebates don’t cover all of the costs. But at least you could spend the money on the things you need most.
But under Carney’s “affordability” plan, you don’t get cash to pay down your credit card or buy groceries. You can only use the credits to buy things like e-bikes and heat pumps.
Here’s how Carney explained it.
“We will have the big polluters pay for climate incentives by developing and integrating a new consumer carbon credit market into the industrial pricing system,” Carney told a Halifax crowd. “While we still provide price certainty for households when they make climate smart choices.”
Translation: Carney would still make Canadians pay, but he’ll only help them with affordability if they’re making “smart” choices.
Sound familiar? This is a lot like the scheme former opposition leader Erin O’Toole ran on. And it ended his political career.
Carney’s carbon tax plan is terrible for two reasons.
First: it’s sneaky. Carney wants to hide the cost of the carbon tax. A powerplant running on natural gas is not going to eat the cost of Carney’s carbon tax; it will pass that expense down to ordinary people who paying the bills.
Second: as anemic as the Trudeau government rebates are, at least Canadians could use the money for the things they need most. It’s cash they can put it towards the next heating bill, or buy a pair of winter boots, or pay for birthday party decorations.
That kind of messy freedom makes some central planning politicians twitchy.
Here’s the thing: half of Canadians are broke and a discount on a new Tesla probably won’t solve their problems.
About 50 per cent are within $200 each month of not being able to make the minimum payments on their bills.
With the cost of groceries up $800 this year for a family of four, people are watching flyers for peanut butter. Food banks have record demand.
Yet, Carney wants Canadians to keep paying the carbon tax while blindfolded and then send thank-you cards when they get a few bucks off on a solar panel they can’t afford.
Clearly the architects of Carney’s plan haven’t spent many sleepless nights worrying about paying rent.
One of Carney’s recent gigs was governor of the Bank of England where he was paid $862,000 per year plus a $449,000 housing allowance.
With ermine earmuffs that thick, it’s hard to hear people’s worries.
About a thousand Canadians recently posted home heating bills online.
Kelly’s family in Northern Ontario paid $134 in the carbon tax for December’s home heating. Lilly’s household bill near Winnipeg was $140 in the carbon tax.
The average Alberta household will pay about $440 extra in the carbon tax on home heating this year.
After the carbon tax is hiked April 1, it will add an extra 21 cents to a litre of gasoline and 25 cents per litre of diesel. Filling a minivan will cost about $15 extra, filling a pickup truck will cost about $25 extra, and a trucker filling a big rig will have to pay about $250 extra in the carbon tax.
Trudeau’s carbon tax data is posted online.
Carney’s carbon tax would be hidden.
Carney isn’t saying the carbon tax is an unfair punishment for Canadians who are trying to drive to work and heat their homes.
He says the problem is “perception.”
“It has become very divisive for Canadians,” Carney told his Halifax crowd about the carbon tax. “It’s the perceptions of the negative impacts of the carbon tax on households, without fully recognizing the positive impacts of the rebate.”
Carney isn’t trying to fix the problem. He’s trying to hide it. And he wants Canadians to be happy with discount codes on “smart” purchases instead of cash.
Kris Sims is the Alberta Director for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.
Business
Lower taxes will help increase living standards for Canadian families

From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro
According to a new poll from RBC, nearly half (48 per cent) of Canadians can’t maintain their standard of living due to rising costs. These polling results should come as no surprise; recent research has shown that Canadian living standards are in a historic decline.
Governments across the country should take note, and immediately cut the largest expense for families—taxes.
Consider this. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of all goods and services produced in the economy, and is the most widely used measure of economic prosperity. And by measuring GDP on a per-person basis (and adjusting for inflation), we can track how living standards of Canadians change over time.
According to the latest data from Statistics Canada, as of September 2024, GDP per person was $58,601 compared to $59,905 in June 2019 (after adjusting for inflation). And since the fourth quarter of 2022, living standards have fallen in seven of the last eight quarters.
The driving factor behind this decline in living standards is Canada’s sluggish economic growth in recent years. Moreover, as highlighted in the poll, inflation over the last several years has left Canadians weary and struggling to cope with the elevated cost of necessities such as food and housing.
Again, if governments want to help improve living standards, they should reduce taxes and leave more money in the pockets of Canadian families.
In 2023 (the latest year of comparable data), the average Canadian family spent a larger share of its income on taxes (43.0 per cent) than on food, shelter and clothing combined (35.6 per cent). In other words, taxes are the largest single expense for Canadian families, and governments have the power to lower this expense to help families make ends meet.
Tax reductions would also benefit the overall economy and increase opportunities for workers. Across a variety of income levels ranging from $50,000 to $300,000 a year, Canadians in nearly every province face a higher combined (federal and provincial/state) personal income tax rate than Americans in virtually every U.S. state.
Of course, jurisdictions compete to attract and retain high-skilled workers such as doctors, engineers and entrepreneurs because these individuals contribute greatly to overall economic growth. By maintaining higher tax rates than U.S. states, provinces remain at a competitive disadvantage in attracting these workers. Lowering both federal and provincial income tax rates would improve Canada’s competitiveness and help increase economic growth.
A stagnant economy and rising cost of living are reducing living standards while stretching the finances of Canadian families. This budget season, governments from coast to coast should lower taxes to improve the economy and put more money back in the pockets of hard-working Canadians.
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