By Jack Mintz
Last week, I summed up 2023 as a year of poor economic performance, with high interest rates, declining real per capita GDP and shortages of housing and health care. Should we expect more of the same from 2024 or something better and brighter?
In the short term, the Trudeau government seems fixated on new redistributive programs such as denticare and pharmacare, rather than addressing the alarming decline in per capita GDP. Quite the contrary, its primary “growth” policy is to pursue a fast-paced energy transition regardless of the immediate GDP loss. Few plans are in place to improve private investment in innovation and investment, not unless you count extraordinarily reckless auto subsidies. And in Ottawa regulations grow like weeds, slowing the pace of development.
Many of the genuine elections could have a big impact on geopolitics and the world economy. Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Investment Management, argues that “The world is now completely dependent on the good sense of leaders to avoid an Armageddon.” Stock markets should be priced to reflect this political risk. Political developments could erode global trade and co-operation and aggravate hostilities in Eastern Europe, East Asia and the Middle East.
For Canada, the critical election takes place in the United States. But whoever wins the presidency in November (or later!), we’re likely to be hit by increasing U.S. protectionism. And if U.S. per capita GDP continues to rise faster than ours, as it did over the last decade, we will either find a new economic path or watch skilled workers and business investment literally go south on us.
With the winds of change blowing, Canada may see federal and provincial governments try a different approach to economic policy, one focused on economic growth rather than just redistribution. Both levels of government need to address our falling per capita GDP. If they do, Canadians will have something to cheer about by the end of 2024.
CNRL has feasted on the oil sands assets of foreign energy producers over the past decade, snapping up stakes and operations from Devon Energy Corp. and Shell Plc as they shifted away from the higher-cost, higher-emissions oil sands business. Investors have applauded the strategy, which allows CNRL to boost output and make the operations more efficient.
That trend continued on Monday, with CNRL shares climbing more than 4% after the deal with Chevron raised its stake in a key oil sands mine and a connected upgrading facility, while also adding natural gas assets in the Duvernay formation.
“These assets build on the robustness of Canadian Natural’s assets,” said CNRL President Scott Stauth said on a conference call Monday. The deal boosts CNRL’s stake in the Athabasca oil sands project, which it first bought from Shell in 2017, to 90% from 70%.
The acquisition was largely expected and boosts CNRL’s oil and gas output by roughly 9%, adding the equivalent of 122,500 barrels of oil production per day.
“It’s just been a matter of time,” Eight Capital analyst Phil Skolnick said by phone, noting that CNRL had been seen as the logical buyer for Chevron’s oil sands business.
While CNRL also boosted its dividend by 7% on Monday, Desjardins analyst Chris MacCulloch cautioned the company’s additional debt to finance the acquisition “may disappoint some investors” given it plans to temporarily slow capital returns.
Still, MacCulloch said the deal is positive overall for CNRL as it further consolidates assets in the region. “There’s no place like home,” he wrote in a note.
Chevron, for its part, is the latest in a long line of US and international oil producers — such as BP Plc, TotalEnergies SE and Equinor ASA — that have shifted away from the oil sands after spending billions to build facilities in the heavy-oil formation. That has left the oil sands largely in the control of Canadian firms including CNRL, Suncor Energy Inc. and Cenovus Energy Inc.
“There’s no remaining, obvious assets available,” Ninepoint Partners partner and senior portfolio manager Eric Nuttall said after Monday’s deal. Ninepoint owns 3.1 million shares in CNRL, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Many of those oil sands deals have been struck at prices that favor the Canadian buyers, which have consolidated land, reduced costs and boosted returns in recent years.
“It’s Canada’s time to shine,” Nuttall said, adding that he expects foreign investors will return to the country’s oil producers in the future.
Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk said Vice President Kamala Harris will launch “lawfare” in an effort to shut down X “by any means possible” if she wins the 2024 presidential election.
Musk sat down for a two-hour interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, a co-founder of the Daily Caller and Daily Caller News Foundation, released on Monday. Musk said that should Harris win the presidency, he anticipated that he and his companies would face legal action.
“If she wins, how can they let X continue in its current form, in its current role in American society?” Carlson asked Musk about the future of the social network if Harris wins the presidency.
“They won’t,” Musk responded. “They will try to shut it down by any means possible.”
WATCH:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called for Americans to be “criminally charged” for spreading what she viewed as disinformation during a Sept. 17 interview with MSNBC host Rachel Maddow, and warned that a lack of censorship was causing a loss of “total control” in a Saturday interview with CNN host Mike Smerconish.
Carlson asked Musk to explain what he meant when he said a Harris administration would use “any means possible” to shut down X.
“They might try to pass laws,” Musk said. “They’ll try to prosecute the company, prosecute me. The amount of lawfare we’ve seen taking place is outrageous.”
Musk noted the Biden administration had sued SpaceX for failing to hire asylum seekers
“I mean… the Department of Justice, for example, launched a huge lawsuit against SpaceX for failing to hire asylum seekers,” Musk continued as Carlson expressed shock. “Not those granted asylum, but asylum seekers. Now, there’s also a law called International Traffic in Arms Regulations that because SpaceX develops advancements in technology that can be used in nuclear ICBMs… we have to be careful who we hire. We can only hire a permanent resident or a citizen.”
The Justice Department announced the suit against SpaceX in August 2023, claiming the company “discouraged asylees and refugees from applying to the company” in legal documents. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) sued Tesla in September 20203. claiming black employees faced harassment and threats, including nooses.
The Biden administration launched other investigations and lawsuits into companies Musk is tied to, including Tesla, since he purchased Twitter in 2022. Musk predicted a dirty tricks campaign in May 2022, as his purchase of Twitter was in progress.
Musk has been an outspoken supporter of former President Donald Trump’s bid to return to the White House, funding America PAC, speaking at Trump’s Saturday rally at Butler, Pennsylvania, at the site of an attempted assassination of the former president and donating to efforts to elected House GOP candidates.
Harris did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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