By Dean Bennett

Alberta’s United Conservative Party jumped out to a lead over the NDP in early returns Monday in what was forecast to be a tight race in the provincial election.

Danielle Smith’s UCP was holding strong in its traditional rural strongholds while Rachel Notley’s NDP was faring well in Edmonton, where it won all but one seat in 2019.

Early results were still mixed in the key battleground of Calgary.

The UCP is seeking a second mandate while the NDP is fighting to regain the majority government it lost to the UCP in 2019.

Polling have suggested a close contest between the two parties, with support for smaller parties falling off.

Advance polls set a record of 758,540 votes cast, eclipsing the previous record of more than 700,000 in 2019.

The campaign has taken place alongside a record-breaking spring for wildfires in Alberta. Ten communities were under evacuation orders Monday.

Elections Alberta set up alternate voting locations for those displaced. Evacuation was added as an eligible reason to vote by special ballot and mobile voting stations were placed in evacuation centres.

Calgary has been seen as the campaign’s battleground and half of the top 10 advance polling stations were in that city. Two were in Edmonton suburbs.

To win, the NDP would have to continue its dominance in Edmonton, flip the majority in Calgary and hope for some help in smaller cities, while defeating scores of UCP incumbents including cabinet ministers.

The NDP needs to swing 20 seats in the 87-seat legislature.

The UCP won 63 seats under then-leader Jason Kenney in 2019 to 24 for Notley’s NDP.

Polls suggest the UCP should continue its near total domination in rural areas and smaller centres, giving it a cushion of up to 40 or so seats to reach the 44 needed to form a majority government.

The month-long campaign has been dominated by the economy and health care.

Albertans are struggling with high costs for consumer goods, a shortage of family doctors and long waits in emergency rooms.

Smith has promised to keep Alberta the lowest-tax regime in Canada.

Her government, she says, would introduce a law to mandate a referendum before any personal or corporate income tax hikes. There would also be tax changes to benefit those making more than $60,000 a year, at a cost of $1 billion annually to the treasury.

The NDP promised to maintain Alberta’s status as Canada’s lowest tax regime. It pledged to end the tax on small businesses and raise the corporate income tax to 11 per cent from eight per cent, which it says would help pay for investments in health and education while keeping the books balanced and maintaining the lowest corporate rate in Canada.

The NDP also promised legislation to counteract UCP policies that hiked the cost of utilities, auto insurance, a range of fees and tuition.

Both leaders promised to preserve the publicly funded health system while creating more primary care teams — physicians accompanied by related specialists such as nurses and therapists — so more Albertans are able to access a family doctor and not clog emergency wards for care.

Polls showed trust was a key issue, with Notley viewed more favourably than her party and vice versa for Smith.

Smith was dogged during the campaign by past comments she made comparing those who took the COVID-19 vaccine to credulous followers of Adolf Hitler. A report also came out mid-campaign from the province’s ethics commissioner that concluded Smith undermined the rule of law by pressuring her justice minister to end the criminal court case of a COVID-19 protester.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 29, 2023.