Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth.- Mike Tyson

Okay, maybe it’s not exactly funereal, but the sad music is playing for the Toronto Blue Jays 2018 Master Plan. The design that was supposed to make Jays fans forget departing GM Alex Anthopoulos and worship new Jays president Mark Shapiro and his GM Ross Atkins. That was the legacy plan predicated on three hot prospects with famous baseball names— Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio—and a pitching staff of gaudy free-agent signings—José Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chris Bassett— returning the Jays to their 1990s glory

What did Iron Mike say about plans? The peak of the 2024 season probably occurred last winter where, for a few short days, some Toronto media convinced the fans that Shohei Ohtani was taking Toronto’s money over Dodgers’ green. He didn’t, and with no Plan B, Shapiro started talking about the re-design of the Rogers Centre. Anything but the fact they were in big trouble on the field.

As the 2024 season winds down the Blue Jays now resemble their Baseball America Top 20 prospects roster more than a Shohei powerhouse on par with the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros. Yes, there have been some encouraging glimmers from the farm in this phoney war since the season collapsed months ago. In Spencer Horowitz, Addison Barger, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido and Leo Jimenez there are hints at a more promising future. The no-hit bids by Bowden Francis have been a pleasant surprise.

Just not the Golden Boys + rented-pitching formula advertised for years by president Shapiro and GM Atkins. This formula, much-touted by Jays media, hasn’t worked out for a number of reasons. Briefly, the injury plague that laid low the bullpen this season occurring concurrently with Guerrero and Bichette slumping early was more than manager John Schneider could handle.

An offence that promised fireworks at the plate reminiscent of the 2015-2017 Gun Show has been more like a pop gun. While the starting pitching has stayed relatively healthy it has not dominated in a way that justifies the huge salaries doled out to its component parts. The abject failure of a series of Jays pitching prospects— typified by dumping uber-prospect Nate Pearson recently— has also scuttled the promise of catching the Yankees and Orioles. Will Francis break the schneid?.

Nor does the prospect of heading into 2025 with these components augur well. Before they get to next year there remains the vexing question of signing Guerrero and Bichette to longterm deals before 2026. Vladdy will get the moon and stars after rehabilitating this career midseason, becoming one of the top five hitters in baseball. (He also appears more grounded.) The question remains will he take that money in Toronto or go catch steam with a title contender. Because Toronto is not that team in 2025.

Bichette is the sticking point. In 2023 it looked as though he was the rock to build on. But his production suddenly cratered and injuries robbed him of about 250 at bats this year. There was talk he wanted out, that he was available at the trade deadline, that he’s in funk over family issues. Whatever, he’s not getting Vladdy money now as a free agent. He says he wants to stay, but will someone else pony up the full meal deal for him?

Yes, there’ll be primo free agents available to overpay. Juan Soto, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso would all answer some need in the Blue Jays lineup— at astronomical costs (if they were even interested in playing in Canada). But as a second-tier location Toronto may have to bring back old pal Edwin Encarnacion or Arizona’s Christian Walker to distract from the decline of the team.

Which leaves the real question: will the phone salesmen at Rogers re-up with the Shapiro/ Atkins/ Schneider troika for one more try at pushing the rope the hill? It’s clear that Rogers loves Shapiro’s handling of the reconstruction of the playing surface, even if the work seeks to have turned Rogers Centre from a launching pad to a power neutral/ power negative one for the home team’s offence.

For the Rogers shareholders Shapiro’s Loonie Hot Dogs, Bobblehead nights  and Oktoberfest specials are swell. The stands remain populated despite the dreck on the field. But the team they watch has been a painful failed strategy. Perhaps there will be enough feedback from disgruntled season ticket holders to force the hand of the Rogers paymasters.

But even if there isn’t, how can you let this front office handle the contract decisions on Guerrero and Bichette when another bad season will seem them gone? Perhaps this hinge point is a good time to reload the C suite with new eyes and something better than doing Western Night or the Westjet Flight Deck. The fans of MLB’s largest home market may seem content with bells and whistles.

But it’s half past tomorrow, and the alarm is ringing.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

The tragic death of NHL star Johnny Gaudreau and his brother Matthew in a car/ bike accident last Thursday in New Jersey was sad beyond words. The pair, riding home from a rehearsal dinner for their sister’s wedding the next day, were killed by a drunk driver who’d passed on the right side of a vehicle ahead. Words fail.

The loss of the brothers reminded us that in our new book Deal With It we dealt with a key moment in Gaudreau’s NHL career when he abandoned Calgary, the only NHL team he’d known since 2014, for Columbus in a controversial decision. Here’s what we said:

“If 2017-18 had been a turning point, 2021-22 was the major breakthrough that saw Gaudreau as a HHoF legend in the making, one who could have his number someday in the rafters in Calgary… should he choose to remain there. As it was, Flames supporters who had seen the team win just one playoff series since 2004, were eager to see how high the new-look Flames could soar and if Gaudreau might finally find his playoff scoring touch. They also looked forward to a possible matchup against the Oilers who’d had to work to even make the postseason.

Against stingy Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger, the Flames had to work just to escape in seven games, with Gaudreau notching just two goals in the series. Both would be game winners as Calgary outlasted the Stars in a nailbiter. His brilliant Game 7 overtime snipe— going short-side top corner near Oetinger’s head— was his highwater mark in a flaming “C,” sending the club into their first postseason clash with the Oilers since 1991. Coach Sutter praised his little winger’s efforts, saying Gaudreau had “taken that step to perform as well in the playoffs” as in the regular season. Gaudreau’s play in the series against Dallas was not helped by indifferent play from Tkachuk, who seemed disinterested in going to the danger areas and only mixing it up physically with the underdog Stars when scrums or opportunities for face washes were provided.

Unfortunately for the Flames, the struggles of their top line against Dallas caught up to them in a passionate showdown with McDavid and the Oilers. In Game 1, Calgary raced to a lopsided 5-1 lead before seeing McDavid bring the Oilers back to tie it at 6-6 in the third frame. Tkachuk got the last laugh on this occasion, burying the third of his three goals that ensured a ridiculous 9-6 series-opening win for Calgary. In Game 2, Calgary once again took an early lead only to watch Edmonton roar back again again. This time, the Oilers made their resurgence hold up and claimed a 5-3 win. After dropping Game 3 in concerningly easy fashion (4-1), then trailing for the bulk of Game 4, the Flames seemed to turn a corner when they came back to tie Game 5  3-3. Looking for a turning point on Edmonton ice, they instead sagged as the Oilers scored twice in the final seven minutes.

Facing elimination in Game 5, Gaudreau’s Flames toyed with fans’ emotions as they possessed the lead twice only to see Edmonton get the equalizer both times. Pushed to the brink, the gut punch of McDavid potting the winner in OT was the final touch on Calgary’s wasted chance at a deep championship run. As it turns out, it was also the early end of an era that once held so much promise. “Missed opportunities,” the Sutter lamented postgame. “It’s not being critical, that’s just true. They’re going to tell you that, too. Missed opportunities go the other way.” The subduing of Calgary’s top line (just six goals including Tkachuk’s Game 1 hatty) was a key to Edmonton’s shockingly decisive triumph, leading to the same old questions about Gaudreau. Those questions also applied to Tkachuk, with doubt cast upon building around them for playoff success. There would be little time for reflection in the offseason talent market.

Instead of Calgary entertaining trades, the options would be in Gaudreau’s hands. As the July 1 trade deadline approached, Gaudreau announced that, despite an enormous eight-year, $80M contract offer from the Flames, he would test free agency. The star winger claimed to many in private that he wanted to go home so his wife could have their baby in the USA. As such, it was believed his preferred venues were the Islanders, Devils or Flyers (closer to home and a childhood favourite team, given he grew up just across the Delaware River from Philly). Still wishing something could be worked out, Calgary management hoped against hope for a reversal of his decision to entertain other cities after the UFA market opened. But Flames fans quietly resigned themselves to losing him for nothing.

To the shock and surprise of many, Gaudreau would go only as far as Columbus, Ohio, when it came to finding a new home. Accepting less than Calgary’s max offer to go play on a team with few real hopes of playoff contention– a ten-hour drive from the Jersey shore where he supposedly wanted to be– Gaudreau sent a missile into Flame country. The optics were terrible for the 29-year old superstar, after insisting he wanted to be near the family home on the Jersey shore. Eric Duhatschek, shortly after, summed up the stunned reaction in The Athletic, writing “The fact that it took Gaudreau so long to choose effectively sabotaged the Flames’ off-season, because it closed so many possible Plan B options to the organization. Closer to home, but not close — because if close to home was the absolute priority, then he could have picked the New Jersey Devils, who also tabled an offer. Columbus is more easily reached by private jet than Calgary, but it’s not as if he’ll be dropping into his mom’s house for dinner after a game or a practice — or getting emergency babysitting service if they need someone right this minute to help out on the home front.” Calgary’s abandonment was best summed up by CBC broadcaster Andrew Brown’s sign-off that day, “And that’s the news for now, I’ll be back here at 11, unless a news station in Columbus offers me way less money… and I’ll probably go do that.”

Gaudreau himself put a salty punctuation on dumping Calgary at his welcome presser in Columbus. “It didn’t matter where I was signing. Our decision was it was best for us not to go back to Calgary.” From America, the reaction was more sympathetic to Gaudreau. In the New York Post, Larry Brooks sneered, “The hysterical response to Johnny Gaudreau’s decision to leave millions on the table in Calgary and instead sign with Columbus was indeed just that. Players are routinely lambasted across the professional sports landscape for being greedy mercenaries. Now this one is being targeted for taking a road less traveled.”

On Barstool Sports, personality “The Rear Admiral” summed up a scathing putdown with “Hell hath no fury like Canadian media (allegedly) scorned… But when media members wail and stomp their feet because a fellow adult opts to work in a new location, well that’s a special kind of entertainment.”  For Flames GM Treliving, whose contract wasn’t renewed at season’s end, there was some resignation over the hand he’d been dealt. “At the end of the day, the players make decisions,” Treliving said. “You always reflect back on how you go through a process. I feel very, very comfortable that the ownership of this organization, the management team here did everything possible to have [Tkachuk and Gaudreau] sign and stay. They chose, they didn’t want to. Not a lot you can do about that so you move forward.”

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.