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Alberta’s projected surplus balloons: Mid-year budget update

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Mid-year update: Keeping Alberta’s finances on track

Alberta’s government continues to manage the province’s finances responsibly with the future in mind.

Alberta continues to lead the nation in economic growth and is forecasting a surplus of $5.5 billion in 2023-24, an increase of $3.2 billion from Budget 2023. The province’s fiscal outlook continued to improve in the second quarter of 2023-24, boosted by strong bitumen royalties and higher income tax revenues.

However, volatile oil prices, continued inflation challenges and uncertainty due to slowing global growth could still affect the province’s finances going forward. Debt servicing costs will be higher than previous years due to higher interest rates, reinforcing the importance of the government’s commitment to balance the budget.

“Alberta continues to stand out as a leader when it comes to fiscal stability and economic resilience in the midst of so much global uncertainty. Our second-quarter fiscal update is another positive report, showing strength in Alberta’s finances and economy and positioning us for future growth and prosperity.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

The government continues to spend responsibly, maintaining its commitment to keep funds in the province’s contingency for disasters and emergencies. The government’s new fiscal framework requires the government to use at least half of available surplus cash to pay down debt, freeing up money that can support the needs of Albertans for generations. The government continues to reduce the province’s debt burden and will pay down a forecasted $3.2 billion in debt this fiscal year.

Alberta’s government is turning its focus to developing next year’s budget, so it supports Albertans’ needs and the province’s economic growth while maintaining the government’s commitment to responsible spending within the fiscal framework. Budget 2024 consultations are open and Albertans are encouraged to share their feedback to help set the province’s financial priorities.

Revenue

  • Revenue for 2023-24 is forecast at $74.3 billion, a $3.7-billion increase from Budget 2023. The increase is due to increases across different revenue streams. In addition, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is forecast to average US$79 per barrel over the course of the fiscal year, in line with the Budget 2023 forecast.
    • Personal and corporate income tax revenue is forecast at $21.8 billion, $1.8 billion higher than at budget.
    • Bitumen royalties are forecast at $14.4 billion, an increase of $1.8 billion from budget.
    • Overall resource revenue is forecast at $19.7 billion, $1.3 billion higher than the budget forecast.
  • Beginning in 2024, Alberta’s government will continue to offer fuel tax relief when oil prices are high, even as the province transitions back to the original fuel tax relief program, which is based on average quarterly oil prices.
    • Albertans will save some or all of the provincial fuel tax on gasoline and diesel when oil prices are $80 per barrel or higher during each quarter’s review period.
    • Although oil prices have been below $80 in recent weeks, Albertans will continue to save at least four cents per litre on the provincial fuel tax in the first three months of 2024 as the tax is phased back in.
    • The government’s fuel tax relief efforts, which include the pause to the end of 2023 and additional savings over the first three months of 2024, are forecast to reduce other tax revenue by $524 million in 2023-24.

Expense

  • Expense for 2023-24 is forecast at $68.8 billion, a $481-million increase from Budget 2023.
  • Capital grants are up marginally from Budget 2023, but down from the first-quarter forecast, mainly due to funding schedules for Calgary and Edmonton LRT projects.
  • Debt servicing costs are forecast to increase $309 million from budget, a reflection of ongoing high interest rates and inflation.
  • Total expense has increased by $1.9 billion, $0.5 billion is directly offset by revenue and $1.4 billion is absorbed by the $1.5-billion contingency.
  • In total, $123 million of the 2023-24 contingency remains unallocated.
  • $1.2 billion in disaster and emergency costs are forecast for the current fiscal year.
    • $750 million for fighting wildfires in the province
    • $165 million for AgriRecovery to support livestock producers affected by dry conditions
    • $253 million to provide financial assistance to communities for uninsurable damage from spring wildfires and summer flooding
    • $61 million for evacuation and other support
  • The operating expense forecast has increased by $319 million, including an additional:
    • $301 million for Health
    • $48 million for Advanced Education
    • $48 million for Energy and Minerals
    • $33 million for Mental Health and Addiction
    • $30 million for Education
    • $14 million for Indigenous Relations
    • Offset by decreases of $187 million for lower-than-expected program take-up of affordability payments and re-profiling of TIER spending to 2024-25.

Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund

  • The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund’s market value on Sept. 30, 2023, was $21.4 billion, up from the $21.2 billion reported at March 31, 2023.
    • The Heritage Fund returned 0.9 per cent over the first six months of 2023-24.
    • Over the five-year period ending on Sept. 30, 2023, the Heritage Fund returned 5.9 per cent, which is 0.5 per cent above the return of its passive benchmark. While the Heritage Fund is outperforming its benchmark return, it is below the long-term real return target of 6.9 per cent, again a result of interest pressures.
    • The Heritage Fund generated net investment income of $1 billion in the first half of the fiscal year.

Economic outlook

  • Alberta’s economy continues to be resilient, with continued growth projected over the three-year forecast.
  • Alberta’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 2.8 per cent in 2023, in line with the Budget 2023 forecast.
  • Despite interest rate increases, high prices and slower global economic growth, Alberta’s economy is forecast to keep expanding. The pace of growth, however, will be slower compared with the last two years when the province was recovering from the pandemic.

Alberta Fund

  • The amount of surplus cash available for debt repayment and the Alberta Fund is determined after a number of required cash adjustments have been made. For 2023-24, this includes $5.1 billion from the 2022-23 final results to start the year.
  • The Alberta Fund contribution for 2023-24 is forecast at $1.6 billion.
  • Money in the Alberta Fund can be used toward additional debt repayment, the Heritage Savings Trust Fund, or one-time initiatives that do not permanently increase government spending.

Related information

This is a news release from the Government of Alberta.

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Alberta

Canadians owe Smith a debt of gratitude

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CAE Logo Dan McTeague

“Thank you, Danielle Smith!”

That is what every man, woman, and child in our great nation should be shouting from the rooftops this week. Instead, our journalists, politicians, and their army of Leftist loudmouths on social media, are sticking with the story that she’s, somehow, a traitor. That couldn’t be further from the truth, and every one of them should be ashamed of themselves for saying it.

In fact, Smith has been almost entirely alone in fighting for Canada since Donald Trump began broadcasting his intention to use the threat of tariffs to pressure our government on illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking over our border.

The response from the media was first mockery and scorn — ‘Look at this American buffoon! He doesn’t even know how much he needs us!’ — followed by outrage at Trump and any Canadian who dared to suggest he might have a point. “Where is their patriotism?!” asked elitists who have spent their careers scoffing at any and every expression of Canadian pride.

And the response from our governing class has been all virtue-signaling and egotism. Yes, Justin Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago to make a perfunctory case against the tariff, but he took every opportunity which presented itself to trash Trump, accuse the American people who elected him of sexism, and imply that Canadians who might consider voting conservative were just as bad.

Meanwhile, Doug Ford began his chest-thumping ‘Captain Canada’ act, while calling an early election with an eye towards keeping himself in power for a few more years. The argument for this move didn’t stand up to the slightest scrutiny. Why did Ford call an election in the middle of what he described as an all-hands-on-deck national emergency? Because he needed a huge majority in Queen’s Park to authorize the COVID-19-level government spending and interventions he needed to respond to Trump’s tariff… never mind the fact that the opposition parties are entirely on board with government spending and intervention.

Maybe he was worried that there are still a few conservatives left in his own caucus who’d object to him driving Ontario’s finances further into the mud? He shouldn’t be – if they stuck with him as he sunk billions into the dying EV industry, they’re likely to stick with him now.

In any event, Ford has created a situation where, in the midst of a crisis, his attention is split between governing and campaigning. It’s self-interest all the way down!

Smith, on the other hand, sprang into action. She flew to the States, first to Mar-a-Lago and then to Washington, and tirelessly made the case to all of the major players on this file — Trump himself, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and others — that the U.S. and Canada are better off working together.

She made it clear that Albertans are also concerned about the border, and about fentanyl trafficking. She criticized Trudeau’s anti-Trump tirades as “not helpful,” slammed proposals to cut off Canadian oil and gas to the U.S., and called for Ottawa to appoint a border and drugs czar, ideally a retired general, rather than some political flunky, an idea which has gotten support from retired members of our military corps.

Her instinct has always been towards turning down the temperature, rather than trying to heat things up — that, by the way, is called “diplomacy” — and she never missed an opportunity to stand up for our oil and gas industry. When our Laurentian elite began sabre rattling about slapping an export duty on Canadian energy heading south, she stood opposed to that as well.

And this is at the heart of the Liberal critique of Smith. She’s betrayed Canada, they say, because she only cares about Alberta and its energy industry. She stands opposed to any action which might imperil Albertan oil and gas.

To which I say: Of course! And good on her for it.

Because, remember, it isn’t only Alberta’s oil and gas industry. It’s Canada’s. And though Justin Trudeau, Mark Carney, and their “green” ideologue friends might wish it otherwise, oil and gas remains the backbone of the Canadian economy. It is our “golden goose,” in the words of economists Jack Mintz and Philip Cross, in a recent study of Canada’s resource sector. And it is far too important to the livelihood of Canadians — not just Albertans mind you — for the Trudeau Liberals to use it as a bargaining chip. Especially since they’ve spent years hamstringing it, while suggesting that we’d ultimately be better off if it went the way of the Dodo.

It’s worth noting that when the (short-lived) tariffs were announced, the White House underlined Smith’s advocacy by singling out oil and gas for a lower rate. More importantly, the concessions from Trudeau which got us our present reprieve — the drug czar and enhanced border enforcement especially — were first proposed by Smith!

So, a separatist? A traitor? Perish the thought! Smith is an advocate for our interests, and a great Canadian.

Hopefully, as we try to avert the unwelcome return of these tariffs, the government looks to Danielle Smith for some guidance. Especially because, chances are, her advice will be, ‘Call an election, so our prime minister has a mandate from the people and can negotiate from a position of strength!’

For the good of Canada, here’s hoping they listen.

Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy

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Alberta

As President Trump creates new economy, Trudeau government ‘pandering’ to globalists

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Jordan Peterson in a February 5, 2025 video titled ‘Canada Must Offer Alberta More Than Trump Could’

From LifeSiteNews

By Anthony Murdoch

“Enough idiot green moralizing, enough carbon tax. Enough bloody net-zero,” he said, adding, “how about this: enough multiculturalism and destruction of the Canadian identity.” 

Well-known Canadian psychologist Dr. Jordan Peterson had choice words for Canadian politicians last week, accusing them of “pandering” to elites and ruining the nation.

In the February 5 video entirely dedicated to the topic of Canadian politics, Peterson said that he is sick of “pathetic celebrity wannabe” politicians, a category in which he includes Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who are “pandering” to the global elites at the expense of ordinary citizens.

Peterson, who is from Alberta, in particular defended his province from a continued push by the Liberal government to undermine its oil and gas industry, amidst a trade tariff dispute with the United States. 

“Enough overt and covert attempts to destroy the basis of the economy of my fair and hard-working province,” said Peterson. 

“Enough delaying critical infrastructure development and rejection of international trade offers for natural gas, oil, and coal. Enough treatment of the resource economy upon which Quebec in particular, so unacceptably depends as a moral pariah.” 

Peterson also took issue with Trudeau’s unpopular carbon tax and the Liberal government’s ongoing promotion of DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) ideology. 

“Enough idiot green moralizing, enough carbon tax. Enough bloody net-zero,” he said, adding, “how about this: enough multiculturalism and destruction of the Canadian identity.” 

In recent weeks, the Trudeau government has been embroiled in a trade dispute with U.S. President Donald Trump, the latter threatening to impose a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian goods if border security and fentanyl trafficking is not taken more seriously.

Canada was given a 30-day reprieve from the 25 percent tariffs by Trump after Trudeau promised to increase border security and crack down on fentanyl making its way south.  

Since taking office in 2015, the Trudeau government has continued to push a radical environmental agenda like the agendas being pushed by the World Economic Forum’s “Great Reset” and the United Nations’ “Sustainable Development Goals.”  

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been a fierce opponent of Trudeau’s green energy agenda and an advocate for the oil and gas industry.   

Canada has the third largest oil reserves in the world, with most of it being in Alberta. Unlike in other nations, Alberta’s industry is largely considered ethical.

This is not the first time Peterson has accused Trudeau and his government of working against the interests of Canada.

Last year, Peterson formally announced his departure from Canada in favor of moving to the United States, saying his birth nation has become a “totalitarian hell hole.”  

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