Alberta
Alberta’s projected surplus balloons: Mid-year budget update

Mid-year update: Keeping Alberta’s finances on track
Alberta’s government continues to manage the province’s finances responsibly with the future in mind.
Alberta continues to lead the nation in economic growth and is forecasting a surplus of $5.5 billion in 2023-24, an increase of $3.2 billion from Budget 2023. The province’s fiscal outlook continued to improve in the second quarter of 2023-24, boosted by strong bitumen royalties and higher income tax revenues.
However, volatile oil prices, continued inflation challenges and uncertainty due to slowing global growth could still affect the province’s finances going forward. Debt servicing costs will be higher than previous years due to higher interest rates, reinforcing the importance of the government’s commitment to balance the budget.
“Alberta continues to stand out as a leader when it comes to fiscal stability and economic resilience in the midst of so much global uncertainty. Our second-quarter fiscal update is another positive report, showing strength in Alberta’s finances and economy and positioning us for future growth and prosperity.”
The government continues to spend responsibly, maintaining its commitment to keep funds in the province’s contingency for disasters and emergencies. The government’s new fiscal framework requires the government to use at least half of available surplus cash to pay down debt, freeing up money that can support the needs of Albertans for generations. The government continues to reduce the province’s debt burden and will pay down a forecasted $3.2 billion in debt this fiscal year.
Alberta’s government is turning its focus to developing next year’s budget, so it supports Albertans’ needs and the province’s economic growth while maintaining the government’s commitment to responsible spending within the fiscal framework. Budget 2024 consultations are open and Albertans are encouraged to share their feedback to help set the province’s financial priorities.
Revenue
- Revenue for 2023-24 is forecast at $74.3 billion, a $3.7-billion increase from Budget 2023. The increase is due to increases across different revenue streams. In addition, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is forecast to average US$79 per barrel over the course of the fiscal year, in line with the Budget 2023 forecast.
- Personal and corporate income tax revenue is forecast at $21.8 billion, $1.8 billion higher than at budget.
- Bitumen royalties are forecast at $14.4 billion, an increase of $1.8 billion from budget.
- Overall resource revenue is forecast at $19.7 billion, $1.3 billion higher than the budget forecast.
- Beginning in 2024, Alberta’s government will continue to offer fuel tax relief when oil prices are high, even as the province transitions back to the original fuel tax relief program, which is based on average quarterly oil prices.
- Albertans will save some or all of the provincial fuel tax on gasoline and diesel when oil prices are $80 per barrel or higher during each quarter’s review period.
- Although oil prices have been below $80 in recent weeks, Albertans will continue to save at least four cents per litre on the provincial fuel tax in the first three months of 2024 as the tax is phased back in.
- The government’s fuel tax relief efforts, which include the pause to the end of 2023 and additional savings over the first three months of 2024, are forecast to reduce other tax revenue by $524 million in 2023-24.
Expense
- Expense for 2023-24 is forecast at $68.8 billion, a $481-million increase from Budget 2023.
- Capital grants are up marginally from Budget 2023, but down from the first-quarter forecast, mainly due to funding schedules for Calgary and Edmonton LRT projects.
- Debt servicing costs are forecast to increase $309 million from budget, a reflection of ongoing high interest rates and inflation.
- Total expense has increased by $1.9 billion, $0.5 billion is directly offset by revenue and $1.4 billion is absorbed by the $1.5-billion contingency.
- In total, $123 million of the 2023-24 contingency remains unallocated.
- $1.2 billion in disaster and emergency costs are forecast for the current fiscal year.
- $750 million for fighting wildfires in the province
- $165 million for AgriRecovery to support livestock producers affected by dry conditions
- $253 million to provide financial assistance to communities for uninsurable damage from spring wildfires and summer flooding
- $61 million for evacuation and other support
- The operating expense forecast has increased by $319 million, including an additional:
- $301 million for Health
- $48 million for Advanced Education
- $48 million for Energy and Minerals
- $33 million for Mental Health and Addiction
- $30 million for Education
- $14 million for Indigenous Relations
- Offset by decreases of $187 million for lower-than-expected program take-up of affordability payments and re-profiling of TIER spending to 2024-25.
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund
- The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund’s market value on Sept. 30, 2023, was $21.4 billion, up from the $21.2 billion reported at March 31, 2023.
- The Heritage Fund returned 0.9 per cent over the first six months of 2023-24.
- Over the five-year period ending on Sept. 30, 2023, the Heritage Fund returned 5.9 per cent, which is 0.5 per cent above the return of its passive benchmark. While the Heritage Fund is outperforming its benchmark return, it is below the long-term real return target of 6.9 per cent, again a result of interest pressures.
- The Heritage Fund generated net investment income of $1 billion in the first half of the fiscal year.
Economic outlook
- Alberta’s economy continues to be resilient, with continued growth projected over the three-year forecast.
- Alberta’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 2.8 per cent in 2023, in line with the Budget 2023 forecast.
- Despite interest rate increases, high prices and slower global economic growth, Alberta’s economy is forecast to keep expanding. The pace of growth, however, will be slower compared with the last two years when the province was recovering from the pandemic.
Alberta Fund
- The amount of surplus cash available for debt repayment and the Alberta Fund is determined after a number of required cash adjustments have been made. For 2023-24, this includes $5.1 billion from the 2022-23 final results to start the year.
- The Alberta Fund contribution for 2023-24 is forecast at $1.6 billion.
- Money in the Alberta Fund can be used toward additional debt repayment, the Heritage Savings Trust Fund, or one-time initiatives that do not permanently increase government spending.
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Alberta
Alberta updates TIER system: Businesses can direct compliance payments to on-site technologies

Modernizing TIER to secure tomorrow |
Alberta is seeking to update the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) system to drive investment at large industrial facilities, helping companies stay competitive and protecting jobs.
This fall, Alberta’s government will introduce updates to the TIER system that would empower Alberta industries to invest in on-site emissions reduction technology that works for their specific businesses. Making Alberta’s highly successful TIER system even more effective and flexible will make industries more globally competitive while maintaining Alberta’s leadership in emissions reductions.
“TIER has always been about Alberta leading the way – proving to the world that it’s possible to increase energy production, grow the economy and lower emissions at the same time. These amendments build on that success by giving industry the certainty and flexibility they need to invest right here at home. We know this work is not finished. We will continue to press the federal government to match Alberta’s leadership with realistic policies and timelines so that together we can keep building an economy that is strong and ready for the future.”
“We are committed to ensuring our industry remains competitive and can once again bring in the capital investment needed to deliver safe, affordable and reliable energy to Canadians and the rest of the world. Enabling them to reinvest their dollars into their own facilities will be good for the environment while growing our economy and creating jobs.”
“TIER has played a critical role in helping Alberta energy be the most responsibly produced energy in the world. These changes will further allow our major energy companies to increase production and finance new world-leading emission reduction efforts consistent with Alberta’s Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan.”
Proposed updates to the TIER system include:
- Recognizing on-site emissions reduction investments as a new way for industry to comply with the TIER system in addition to the current options available, which include paying into the TIER fund or buying credits. This would reward companies for investing directly in emissions reduction technology that encourages innovation, supports local jobs and reduces emissions.
- Allowing smaller facilities that currently participate in the TIER system to leave or opt out for 2025 to reduce costs and red tape. Smaller facilities below the regulatory emissions threshold can face disproportionate compliance costs under the TIER system, which is mainly designed for large facilities. This change would help smaller industries save money and redirect resources into emissions reduction investments or other operational improvements for more cost savings. It offers flexibility, especially for small manufacturers and rural operations, which protects jobs across Alberta.
These changes will position Alberta, once again, as a world leader ready to meet the challenges and realities of shifting global markets, increased competition and trade uncertainty.
“We are pleased to see the Government of Alberta is taking steps to improve competitiveness of climate policy. Today’s announcement recognizes industry concerns around competitiveness and signals that the province is moving forward to support emissions reduction in a way that helps companies reduce emissions, compete for investment, and create jobs for Albertans. EPAC believes provinces are best positioned to lead on climate policy, and we look forward to continued work with Alberta.”
“Pathways Alliance appreciates the Government of Alberta’s efforts to support the oil sands industry and protect jobs. Direct investment through the TIER system is expected to encourage continued investment in emission reduction technologies, and advance innovative infrastructure. The oil sands industry looks forward to ongoing work with governments to strengthen global competitiveness and attract investment.”
Alberta’s economy is growing and emissions are declining thanks to the province’s common-sense approach. Alberta’s government will continue to work with industry to protect jobs, strengthen competitiveness and maintain Alberta’s position as the destination of choice for global investment.
Quick facts
- Alberta’s TIER system was established in 2007 and was the first of its kind in North America.
- Currently the TIER system includes about 60 per cent of the province’s total emissions, helping Alberta’s industrial facilities find innovative ways to reduce emissions and invest in technology to stay competitive, save money and create jobs.
- The TIER Regulation requires any facility that emits 100,000 tonnes or more of emissions in a year to meet annual emissions reductions using either a facility-specific or a sector benchmark approach.
- Under the current system, regulated facilities can comply using credits (carbon offsets, emission performance credits or sequestration tonnes) or pay into the TIER fund at $95 per tonne of emissions.
- Sectors regulated under the TIER system include oil and gas, oil sands mining, electricity, forestry, chemicals, fertilizers, minerals, food processing and waste.
- Since 2019, Alberta has invested $1.6 billion from the TIER fund into geothermal, hydrogen, energy storage, methane reduction, carbon capture and other technology projects, reducing approximately 70 million tonnes of emissions by 2030 and supporting about 21,000 jobs across the province.
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Alberta
Alberta Education negotiations update: Minister Horner

President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance Nate Horner issued the following statement about the ongoing negotiations with TEBA and the ATA:
“After announcing its intention to strike last week, the ATA provided its members with a document titled ‘Talking Points’ for teachers to use when speaking to parents and students about the current bargaining situation.
“The document falsely claims that the Teachers’ Employer Bargaining Association (TEBA) does not have the mandate to ‘negotiate on important issues such as class complexity, class size, support for students.’
“There are also other statements in the document that are misleading and confusing for parents, teachers and most importantly our kids, who are explicitly targeted by these communications.
“To be clear, the only item outstanding between the ATA and TEBA for a new contract is the union’s additional salary demands.
“TEBA’s most recent offer to the ATA included a guarantee to hire 3,000 more teachers over the next three years at a cost of about three-quarters of a billion dollars. This is what the ATA asked for in its previous offer and government’s response met that request. The parties are no longer disputing negotiations on that point.
“The current offer provides a salary increase of at least 12 per cent over four years with more than 95 per cent of teachers receiving more through a market adjustment, and would result in the best deal for teachers in all of Western Canada.
“The information in the ATA document is inaccurate. It intentionally misinforms the public, parents and students. TEBA has been left with no choice but to launch a legal challenge. The Alberta Labour Relations Board received our complaint today, asking the ATA and its president Jason Schilling to immediately retract their false claims and to stop using Alberta’s students and families for leverage in a bargaining dispute.
“The ATA’s leadership and communications strategy targeting families and children with false and misleading claims raises serious ethical concerns. The government must now correct the false narrative the ATA has created.
“I look forward to a speedy resolution of this complaint with the Labour Relations Board. When we have our resolution, we will consider next steps.”
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