2025 Federal Election
AI-Driven Election Interference from China, Russia, and Iran Expected, Canadian Security Officials Warn
Sam Cooper
Canada’s election monitoring agency is warning that foreign powers, led by the People’s Republic of China, are expected to target Canadian politicians and political parties in the coming weeks using increasingly convincing AI-generated cyberattacks—part of a broad set of malign strategies that could be impacting the 2025 federal election.
The warning came Monday from the Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections (SITE) Task Force, whose officials detailed how foreign state actors, including China, Russia, and Iran, are likely to use so-called “hack-and-leak” operations, generative AI, and social engineering to undermine confidence in Canada’s democratic process.
“Canadian politicians and political parties are likely to be targeted by threat actors attempting to hack into their systems, steal information, and leak that information,” said an official from the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security, a branch of the Communications Security Establishment. “We assess that AI is making social engineering attacks more personalized, pervasive, and harder to detect.”
Officials cited a 2024 U.S. Department of Justice indictment that charged Iranian-linked cyber actors with stealing and leaking campaign material belonging to U.S. political figures, including to rival campaigns. The case, SITE said, was emblematic of an evolving threat model now being deployed globally.
“Increasingly, nation states are incorporating AI into their cyber operations,” SITE warned. “Generative AI tools enable cyber threat actors to create realistic audio and video content impersonating trusted individuals or deepfakes.”
These tools, SITE added, are being used to craft emails that mimic natural human writing, using convincing grammar and tone to fool even seasoned professionals—including campaign staff, journalists, and elected officials.
SITE said that the cyber programs of China, Russia, and Iran represent the greatest strategic cyber threats to Canadian democracy during the current election. Among them, the PRC was flagged as the most persistent in targeting Canadian political figures, public officials, and institutions.
“The PRC regularly targets Canadian government networks and public officials to acquire information that will advance its strategic economic and diplomatic interests,” an official said. “This information is likely also used to support the PRC’s malign influence and interference activities against Canada’s democratic processes.”
SITE linked these activities to broader campaigns of transnational repression. Chinese cyber actors have been publicly tied to operations targeting Uyghur activists in Canada, as well as journalists and dissidents from Hong Kong and Taiwan. The tactics include spyware, phishing campaigns, and digital tracking.
“PRC actors very likely facilitate transnational repression by monitoring and harassing these groups online,” an official added, noting that Beijing has labeled Uyghurs, Falun Gong practitioners, Tibetans, and pro-democracy advocates among its so-called ‘five poisons.’
Russia and pro-Russian non-state actors were described as the most aggressive actors globally over the past two years in targeting elections, using cyberattacks and information warfare to influence outcomes and undermine faith in democratic institutions.
SITE officials emphasized that the task force is actively monitoring signals intelligence, cyber intrusion attempts, and online manipulation in real-time — and will issue public alerts if they identify specific incidents linked to foreign actors.
But the challenge, they said, is that these operations increasingly blend foreign state capabilities with domestic narratives and influencers, making detection and attribution more difficult.
“The environment is rapidly evolving,” the official concluded. “We are asking everyone — from parties to voters — to be vigilant in the face of increasingly deceptive and technologically sophisticated foreign interference.”
Two weeks ago, Canada’s Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections (SITE) Task Force identified a sophisticated PRC information campaign targeting Chinese-language social media in Canada. On March 10 and March 25, the WeChat account Youli-Youmian, linked to Chinese Communist Party propaganda efforts, shared widely amplified posts portraying Mark Carney in a highly favorable light.
One post, titled “The US encounters a ‘tough guy’ Prime Minister,” framed Carney as standing up to Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
At the SITE briefing Monday, The Bureau questioned whether the task force would investigate the Carney campaign’s “ButtonGate” scandal as potential domestic election interference—especially given the operation echoed a PRC disinformation playbook from 2021 that falsely depicted the Conservatives as Trump-style extremists. The question also raised whether SITE had the capacity to examine any crossover between this Liberal narrative and a broader foreign campaign.
A SITE spokesperson replied cautiously: “National security agencies take any attempt to undermine our democracy really seriously… Not all disinformation is foreign-backed… but SITE is committed to informing Canadians when emerging issues can be linked to foreign state actors.”
Alongside its public briefing Monday, the SITE Task Force released a visual guide warning Canadians about how disinformation spreads during elections.
The schematic emphasizes vigilance, encouraging Canadians to scrutinize domain names, design inconsistencies, and suspicious endorsements. It also urges users to verify sources, use fact-checking tools, and avoid sharing unverified content.
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From William’s Substack
William Lacey
I put a lot of personal energy into this election, trying to understand why it was that Canadians so wholeheartedly endorsed Mark Carney as their new leader, despite the fact that it was the same party who caused irreparable economic harm to the economy, and he has a similar philosophical outlook to the core outlook of the party. I truly believe that we have moved to a phase in our electoral process where, until something breaks, left leaning ideology will trump the day (pun intended).
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Coming out of this election I have three questions.
1. What of Pierre Poilievre? The question for Conservatives is whether the wolves feed on the carcass of Poilievre (in my opinion the worst enemy of a Conservative is a Conservative) and initiate the hunt for a new leader (if they do, I believe the future should be led by a woman – Melissa Lantsman or possibly Caroline Mulroney), or does Poilievre move to Alberta and run for a “safe” seat to get back into the House of Commons, change his tone, and show people he too can be Prime Ministerial? His concession speech gives clues to this.
2. What of Mark Carney? Maybe (hopefully) Carney will see the light and try to bring the nation together, as there is an obvious east-west split in the country in terms of politics. Time will tell, and minority governments need to be cautious. Will we have a Supply and Confidence 2.0 or will we see olive branches extended?
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3. What of the House of Commons? As I have mentioned previously, there has been discussion that the House of Commons may not sit until after the summer break, meaning that the House of Commons really will not have conducted any business in almost a year by the time it reconveens. If indeed “we are in the worst crisis of our lives” as Prime Minister Carney campaigned on, then should we not have the House of Commons sit through the summer? After all, the summer break usually is for politicians to go back to their ridings and connect with their constituents, but if an election campaign doesn’t constitute connecting, what does?
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Regardless, as the election is behind us, we now need to see what comes. I will try to be hopeful, but remain cautious. May Canada have better days ahead.
Thanks for reading William’s Substack!
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2025 Federal Election
In Defeat, Joe Tay’s Campaign Becomes a Flashpoint for Suspected Voter Intimidation in Canada
Sam Cooper
Canadian police initiated review of campaign complaint.
In one of the most closely scrutinized races of Canada’s 2025 federal election, Joseph Tay—the Conservative candidate identified by federal authorities as the target of aggressive Chinese election interference operations—was defeated Monday night in Don Valley North by Liberal Maggie Chi, following a campaign marred by threats, suspected intimidation, and digital suppression efforts.
The Bureau has learned that Canadian police last week reviewed complaints alleging that members of Tay’s campaign team were shadowed in an intimidating manner while canvassing in the final days of the race. The status of the incident review remains unclear.
With over 20,000 votes—a 43 percent share compared to 53 percent for Liberal Maggie Chi—Tay nearly doubled the Conservative Party’s 2021 vote total of 12,098 in this riding.
Last Monday, federal intelligence officials disclosed that Tay was the subject of a highly coordinated transnational repression operation tied to the People’s Republic of China. The campaign aimed to discredit his candidacy and suppress Chinese Canadian voters’ access to his messaging through cyber and information operations.
That same day, federal police advised Tay to suspend door-to-door canvassing, according to two sources with direct knowledge, citing safety concerns. Several days later, Tay’s campaign reported to police that a man had been trailing a door-knocking team in a threatening manner in a Don Valley North neighbourhood.
Following The Bureau’s reporting, the New York Times wrote on Sunday: “Fearing for his safety, Mr. Tay… has waged perhaps the quietest campaign of any candidate competing in the election. The attacks on Mr. Tay have sought to influence the outcome of the race in Don Valley North, a district with a large Chinese diaspora in Toronto, in what is the most vote-rich region in Canada.”
In a twist, in neighbouring Markham–Unionville, Peter Yuen—the Liberal candidate who replaced former MP Paul Chiang, who had made controversial remarks about Tay being turned over to Chinese officials—was defeated by Conservative candidate Michael Ma. According to Elections Canada’s results, Ma secured the riding by about 2,000 votes.
Tay and his campaign team had conducted extensive groundwork in Markham–Unionville earlier this year, where he publicly announced his intention to seek the Conservative nomination in January. However, the party ultimately assigned him on March 24 to Don Valley North—a riding that, according to the 2024 report of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP), was the site of serious foreign interference by the People’s Republic of China during the 2019 election.
At 2 a.m., Tay posted a message to X thanking supporters: “By God’s grace, though we did not win tonight, we have already won something far greater—the courage to stand, to speak, and to dream together.”
Signaling he may run again, Tay added: “Our journey does not end here. I remain committed to upholding Canadian values—freedom, respect, and community—and will continue to serve and help build a wholesome, principled community in every way I can.”
Last Monday, SITE—Canada’s election-threat monitoring task force—confirmed that Tay was the target of a coordinated online disinformation campaign, warning in briefing materials that “this was not about a single post” but a “deliberate, persistent campaign” designed to distort visibility and suppress legitimate discourse among Chinese-speaking voters.
The tactics bore striking resemblance to interference allegations uncovered by The Bureau during the 2021 federal election, when Conservative MP Bob Saroya was unseated in Markham–Unionville amid allegations that operatives linked to the Chinese government had shadowed Saroya, surveilled his campaign, and sought to intimidate voters. Senior Conservative officials said CSIS provided briefings at the time warning of what they described as “coordinated and alarming” surveillance efforts.
In Tay’s case, official sources confirmed that Chinese-language platforms circulated disinformation framing him as a fugitive, invoking his Hong Kong National Security Law bounty—set at $180,000 CAD—to portray his candidacy as a threat to Canada.
Earlier this month, The Bureau reported that former Liberal MP Paul Chiang—who defeated Conservative incumbent Bob Saroya in 2021—withdrew as a candidate after the RCMP opened a review into remarks he made suggesting that Joe Tay’s election could spark “great controversy” for Canada because of Hong Kong’s national security charges, and that Tay could be handed over to the Chinese consulate to collect a bounty. Chiang later apologized, describing the comments as a poorly judged joke. However, prominent diaspora organizations and human rights groups condemned the remarks as a disturbing example of rhetoric echoing transnational repression.
According to SITE assessments reviewed by The Bureau, coordinated suppression efforts were particularly acute in Don Valley North, where Tay’s online visibility was sharply curtailed across Chinese-language social media ecosystems.
The status of the RCMP’s review into Chiang’s remarks—and a separate complaint to Toronto police alleging that Tay’s campaign staff may have been intimidated while canvassing—remains unclear.
With Mark Carney’s Liberals securing a narrow minority and Canada’s political landscape growing increasingly polarized—against the backdrop of an intensifying cold war between Washington and Beijing—some pundits predict voters could be heading back to the polls sooner than expected. Whether election threat reviewers will now dig deeper into China’s suspected interference in this and other ridings remains an open question.
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Ottawa Confirms China interfering with 2025 federal election: Beijing Seeks to Block Joe Tay’s Election
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