Economy
Canada’s Energy Wealth Is Bleeding South
From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
Without infrastructure, Canada is losing billions while the U.S. cashes in on our oil and gas
Canada’s energy wealth is stuck in traffic, and our American neighbours are cashing in. It’s worse than that. Canada is bleeding millions of dollars daily because it lacks the infrastructure to export its natural resources efficiently.
While our oil and gas continue to flow—mainly to the United States—provinces like Alberta and British Columbia are forced to sell at steep discounts. This isn’t just an economic inefficiency; it’s a structural failure of national policy. The beneficiaries? American businesses and their governments which pocket the profits and tax revenues that should be circulating through the Canadian economy. This is no way to achieve economic sovereignty for Canada.
With U.S. interests reaping the rewards, this should have been a central talking point when Prime Minister Carney met with President Trump earlier this month.
Ottawa often offers the recent completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline as an example of federal support for the energy sector. But such claims are misleading. Kinder Morgan, a private enterprise, had initially planned to build the extension without a penny from taxpayers. It withdrew only after being crippled by federal regulatory delays and political uncertainty.
Ottawa stepped in not as a benevolent saviour to help Albertans, but to prevent lawsuits and save face—ultimately overpaying for the pipeline and watching construction costs balloon to nearly six times the original estimate.
To now declare this bungled project a “gift” to Alberta, as a recent op-ed in the Toronto Star did, is not only tone-deaf: it’s an insult. It ignores the fact that Alberta’s taxpayers helped finance the very project Ottawa botched. It also reveals an astonishing lack of understanding of the historical, economic and political dynamics at play between Ottawa and Western Canada.
The tragedy is that TMX, despite its importance, is insufficient. Our infrastructure bottlenecks remain. With each passing day, Canada forfeits wealth that could fund essential improvements in health care, education and national defence.
According to the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, which has developed a real-time tracker to monitor these losses, the price differential between what we could earn on global markets versus what we settle for domestically adds up to $26.5 billion annually.
Ottawa’s reluctance to greenlight new infrastructure is a primary cause of this problem. Ironically, the losses from this reluctance in a single year would be enough to pay for another TMX, mismanaged or not. The solution lies in a national commitment to building utility corridors: designated routes that facilitate the movement of energy, goods and services unhindered across provincial boundaries.
Carney’s recent promise to remove all interprovincial trade barriers by July 1 is a nice soundbite. But unless it includes meaningful infrastructure commitments, it is bound to fail like every other rhetorical flourish before it.
Canadians should be rightly skeptical. After all, what Ottawa has failed to achieve in the 157 years since Confederation is unlikely to be accomplished in the next 60 days.
The political math doesn’t help either. The Bloc Québécois holds the balance of power in the 45th Parliament, and its obstructionist stance on national pipeline development ensures the advent of more gridlock, not less. The federal government continues to uphold Bill C-69—dubbed the “no-pipelines bill”—further entrenching the status quo.
Meanwhile, Canada remains in the absurd position of relying on U.S. infrastructure to transport oil from the West to Ontario and Quebec. This undermines our economic independence, energy security and national sovereignty. No amount of “elbows up” will correct this enormous gap.
If the prime minister is serious about transforming Canada’s economic landscape and making the country strong, he must bypass the Bloc by cooperating with the Official Opposition. A grand bargain focused on utility corridors, interprovincial infrastructure and national trade efficiency would serve Alberta, Saskatchewan, and every Canadian who depends on a strong and self-reliant economy.
The stakes are high. We need a more productive country to face challenges within Canada and from abroad. Billions in lost revenue could fund new hospitals, more schools and better military readiness.
Instead, along with the limited exports of oil and gas, we’re exporting great opportunities to middlemen—and greater economic strength—south of the border.
The path forward is clear. A strong, self-reliant Canada needs infrastructure. It needs corridors. It needs leadership.
Marco Navarro-Genie is the vice president of research at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. He is coauthor, with Barry Cooper, of Canada’s COVID: The Story of a Pandemic Moral Panic (2023).
Quick Hit:
President Trump on Monday warned oil producers not to raise prices in the wake of U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, cautioning that a spike would benefit America’s enemies. “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING!”
Key Details:
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Trump posted on Truth Social: “YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”
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Oil prices fell after the post, with Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate both slipping by about one percent following earlier gains driven by Middle East tensions.
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In a follow-up message, Trump told the Department of Energy: “DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!”
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 23, 2025
Diving Deeper:
President Donald Trump issued a blunt warning to oil producers Monday morning following a weekend of U.S. military action against Iran, urging them to keep prices under control amid rising geopolitical tensions. His message, posted on Truth Social, was clear and emphatic: “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”
The timing of the post was significant. Over the weekend, U.S. forces struck three major Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—in a bold escalation that raised fears of a broader regional conflict and potential threats to global energy infrastructure. Initial market reactions were swift, with Brent Crude jumping over 5 percent and briefly breaking above $81 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate followed, climbing to its highest level since January.
However, after Trump’s post circulated Monday, both benchmarks began to pull back, each falling by about one percent. Traders appeared to interpret Trump’s comments as a call for restraint, especially as domestic producers weigh output decisions amid a softening price environment and a looser global supply picture.
While Trump didn’t name names, his message seemed clearly aimed at American oil companies, some of which have recently floated the possibility of scaling back production due to lower margins. Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues its efforts to bring previously curtailed output back online, further complicating the global supply-demand dynamic.
In a second post, Trump added: “To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!”
Despite the military flare-up, markets have largely stabilized, suggesting that investors are waiting to see how Iran will respond. Tehran’s parliament has called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipping, but such a move would require the approval of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
For now, traders appear cautious but unconvinced that supply routes will be disrupted in the immediate term. Trump, however, has made it clear that if oil producers try to capitalize on the crisis by raising prices, he’ll be watching—and he won’t be quiet.
Business
The U.S. Strike in Iran-Insecurity About Global Oil Supply Suddenly Makes Canadian Oil Attractive
From Energy Now
By Maureen McCall
The U.S. strike on three nuclear sites in Iran is expected to rattle oil prices as prices change to include a higher geopolitical risk premium.
Anticipated price rises range from a likely rise of $3-5 per barrel forecast by Reuters to predictions of a “knee-jerk” reaction price spike with Brent crude, currently at $72.40, possibly rising to $120+ in a worst-case scenario, according to JPMorgan.
Whatever the choice of action Iran will take in response- it is creating fears of reprisals striking U.S. oil infrastructure. Impacts on the Strait of Hormuz are feared as a senior Iranian lawmaker was quoted on June 19th as saying that the country could shut the Strait of Hormuz as a way of hitting back against its enemies.
In a recent interview, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said there is sufficient supply in the global oil market to withstand any supply disruption to Iranian exports.
“There’s enough spare capacity in the system today to accommodate any Iranian oil that comes off the market,” Woods told Fox News “The bigger issue will be if infrastructure for exports or the shipping past the Strait of Hormuz is impacted.”
The Strait of Hormuz is considered the world’s most important oil chokepoint, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Iran voted late Sunday to shut down the Strait through which about 20% of the world’s daily oil supply flows. The resulting oil supply risk leaves countries contemplating their options as they look for more long-term capacity.
We could be facing a return to the identification of “Conflict Oil”, a term Ezra Levant first coined in his book “Ethical Oil: The Case for Canada’s Oil Sands” to describe oil-producing countries with dismal human rights records, such as Iran. Conflict oil would now signify oil sourced from areas of the world subject to political conflict, instability and supply disruption. Levant used the term originally to argue that Canadian Oil Sands production should be considered a more ethical alternative to oil from countries with oppressive regimes. However, the argument could now be made that oil supply and pricing from conflict-free countries like Canada would be more reliable. Canadian oil could come into focus as conflict oil once again becomes a concern.
Katarzyna (Kasha)Piquette, CEO, of Canadian Energy Ventures (CEV), an organization formed to connect Canada’s energy with Europe’s growing needs in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, foresees dramatic changes in global energy trade.
“The consequences of the US strike on Iran are a potential game-changer, not just in terms of pricing, but in how countries think about long-term energy security,” Piquette said. “In the short term, Canada can help stabilize supply to the U.S. and Europe as geopolitical risk premiums surge. But the long-term impact may be even more profound: countries in Asia are likely to deepen ties with stable, non-Middle East suppliers like Canada. This is an opportunity to position Canadian energy as a cornerstone of energy security in a more divided world, and we must act strategically to expand our infrastructure and secure that future.”
Piquette says CEV is hearing directly from buyers in Europe and Asia, at least half a dozen countries, who are urgently looking to secure long-term contracts with reliable, conflict-free suppliers.
“Canadian oil is back in focus, and not just for ethical reasons. With the Trans Mountain expansion now operational, we can access Asian markets directly through the BC coast, while the U.S. The Gulf Coast remains a viable path to Europe. Yes, transportation adds cost—but buyers today are willing to pay a premium for stability. This is Canada’s moment, but it requires Ottawa to deliver on its promises: we need regulatory certainty, investment in infrastructure, and export capacity that matches global demand.”
Maureen McCall is an energy professional who writes on issues affecting the energy industry.
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