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Energy Effect: Trump’s big win fuels talk of policy actions

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“Our long national nightmare with the Green New Deal is finally over because energy was on the ballot in 2024, and energy won”

Former President Donald Trump is on track to potentially receive 300 electoral votes or more. He won the national popular vote by about 5 million with votes still being counted. As a result, some analysts and Republicans say Trump and the GOP have a “mandate” to aggressively push forward with their agenda.

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump said in his speech early Wednesday morning, creating a refrain echoed by his supporters.

As of midday Wednesday, Trump secured 292 electoral votes after Michigan and its 15 votes were called – 270 were needed to win the race. He also leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Alaska, Arizona and Nevada.

If Trump holds in those states, he will have 312 electoral votes, propelled in large part due to a level of support from Black voters and Hispanic voters unusual for a Republican.

“The American people have sent a clear message through President Trump’s resounding victory,” U.S. Sen. Thom Thillis, R-N.C., wrote on X. “The mandate is clear: fix the economy, secure the border, keep America safe, and confirm more judges who follow the Constitution.”

At the same time Wednesday, House Republicans had won 198 House racers and Democrats had won 177 with the rest uncalled; 218 are needed to win a majority. In the Senate, Republicans won 52 seats and Democrats won 42 with six still to be called, flipping the upper chamber to GOP control.

“This is a mandate,” Scott Jennings, an alum of the George W. Bush administration and CNN analyst said on the air as results came in early Wednesday morning.

“He won the national popular vote for the first time for a Republican since 2004,” Jennings said. “This is a big deal. This isn’t backing into the office. This is a mandate to do what you said you were going to do. Get the economy working again for regular, working class Americans. Fix immigration. Try to get crime under control. Try to reduce the chaos in the world. This is a mandate from the American people to do that.”

On economic policy, Trump is expected to double down on domestic oil drilling to increase revenue for the U.S. and lower energy costs for Americans. Trump made inflation a focus of his campaign, pledging to use domestic oil to get costs down for Americans and even pay off debt with the tax revenue.

“Our long national nightmare with the Green New Deal is finally over because energy was on the ballot in 2024, and energy won,” said Daniel Turner, founder and executive director of energy worker advocacy group Power The Future. “On day one, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris fired thousands of Keystone XL workers and thankfully starting in January it’s this administration that will be unemployed.”

Republicans have also vowed tax reform, something they prioritized after Trump came into office last time around. Experts said the market reacted favorably to Trump’s win.

“Trump’s election victory sparked a rally in the greenback last night as growth and inflation expectations rerated higher,” Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a statement. “Fed funds futures dialed back rate cut expectations from five to four 0.25% cuts by the end of next year. Yields surged higher, a move further exacerbated by deficit spending concerns, especially if Republicans secure the House.”

Trump also pledged to quickly negotiate an end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, something that earned him bipartisan support from many Americans, including Arab and Muslim Americans frustrated by the Biden-Harris handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

Pop culture figure and Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy told his 3.3 million followers the win was a “ringing endorsement of Republicans” and “an indictment against the Democrats,” using a familiar message analysts across platforms online and on television.

That perception will be key for Republicans who likely have two years to push through a legislative agenda as reports indicate they will have a majority in the Senate and possibly the House.

Polls showed only 28% of Americans felt the country was headed in the right direction, something incumbent Harris could not overcome.

“I wanted Trump to win, but more than that, I wanted a decisive victory,” Newsweek Opinion Editor Batya Ungar-Sargon wrote on X. “If it’s true he’s won the popular vote, that is a mandate to lead. Calling Trump Hitler is now proven to be what it always was: an unforgivable smear of the majority of Americans. It’s time to embrace unity.”

While Harris delayed in recognizing Trump as the winner, still not conceding as of early Wednesday afternoon, his other fiercest opponents, like former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, recognized him on X but offered a warning.

“Our nation’s democratic system functioned last night and we have a new President-elect,” said Cheney, a Republican who campaigned with Democrat Harris on the trail. “All Americans are bound, whether we like the outcome or not, to accept the results of our elections. We now have a special responsibility, as citizens of the greatest nation on earth, to do everything we can to support and defend our Constitution, preserve the rule of law, and ensure that our institutions hold over these coming four years.”

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Alberta

Alberta’s grand bargain with Canada includes a new pipeline to Prince Rupert

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From Resource Now

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Alberta renews call for West Coast oil pipeline amid shifting federal, geopolitical dynamics.

Just six months ago, talk of resurrecting some version of the Northern Gateway pipeline would have been unthinkable. But with the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. and Mark Carney in Canada, it’s now thinkable.

In fact, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith seems to be making Northern Gateway 2.0 a top priority and a condition for Alberta staying within the Canadian confederation and supporting Mark Carney’s vision of making Canada an Energy superpower. Thanks to Donald Trump threatening Canadian sovereignty and its economy, there has been a noticeable zeitgeist shift in Canada. There is growing support for the idea of leveraging Canada’s natural resources and diversifying export markets to make it less vulnerable to an unpredictable southern neighbour.

“I think the world has changed dramatically since Donald Trump got elected in November,” Smith said at a keynote address Wednesday at the Global Energy Show Canada in Calgary. “I think that’s changed the national conversation.” Smith said she has been encouraged by the tack Carney has taken since being elected Prime Minister, and hopes to see real action from Ottawa in the coming months to address what Smith said is serious encumbrances to Alberta’s oil sector, including Bill C-69, an oil and gas emissions cap and a West Coast tanker oil ban. “I’m going to give him some time to work with us and I’m going to be optimistic,” Smith said. Removing the West Coast moratorium on oil tankers would be the first step needed to building a new oil pipeline line from Alberta to Prince Rupert. “We cannot build a pipeline to the west coast if there is a tanker ban,” Smith said. The next step would be getting First Nations on board. “Indigenous peoples have been shut out of the energy economy for generations, and we are now putting them at the heart of it,” Smith said.

Alberta currently produces about 4.3 million barrels of oil per day. Had the Northern Gateway, Keystone XL and Energy East pipelines been built, Alberta could now be producing and exporting an additional 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. The original Northern Gateway Pipeline — killed outright by the Justin Trudeau government — would have terminated in Kitimat. Smith is now talking about a pipeline that would terminate in Prince Rupert. This may obviate some of the concerns that Kitimat posed with oil tankers negotiating Douglas Channel, and their potential impacts on the marine environment.

One of the biggest hurdles to a pipeline to Prince Rupert may be B.C. Premier David Eby. The B.C. NDP government has a history of opposing oil pipelines with tooth and nail. Asked in a fireside chat by Peter Mansbridge how she would get around the B.C. problem, Smith confidently said: “I’ll convince David Eby.”

“I’m sensitive to the issues that were raised before,” she added. One of those concerns was emissions. But the Alberta government and oil industry has struck a grand bargain with Ottawa: pipelines for emissions abatement through carbon capture and storage.

The industry and government propose multi-billion investments in CCUS. The Pathways Alliance project alone represents an investment of $10 to $20 billion. Smith noted that there is no economic value in pumping CO2 underground. It only becomes economically viable if the tradeoff is greater production and export capacity for Alberta oil. “If you couple it with a million-barrel-per-day pipeline, well that allows you $20 billion worth of revenue year after year,” she said. “All of a sudden a $20 billion cost to have to decarbonize, it looks a lot more attractive when you have a new source of revenue.” When asked about the Prince Rupert pipeline proposal, Eby has responded that there is currently no proponent, and that it is therefore a bridge to cross when there is actually a proposal. “I think what I’ve heard Premier Eby say is that there is no project and no proponent,” Smith said. “Well, that’s my job. There will be soon.  “We’re working very hard on being able to get industry players to realize this time may be different.” “We’re working on getting a proponent and route.”

At a number of sessions during the conference, Mansbridge has repeatedly asked speakers about the Alberta secession movement, and whether it might scare off investment capital. Alberta has been using the threat of secession as a threat if Ottawa does not address some of the province’s long-standing grievances. Smith said she hopes Carney takes it seriously. “I hope the prime minister doesn’t want to test it,” Smith said during a scrum with reporters. “I take it seriously. I have never seen separatist sentiment be as high as it is now. “I’ve also seen it dissipate when Ottawa addresses the concerns Alberta has.” She added that, if Carney wants a true nation-building project to fast-track, she can’t think of a better one than a new West Coast pipeline. “I can’t imagine that there will be another project on the national list that will generate as much revenue, as much GDP, as many high paying jobs as a bitumen pipeline to the coast.”

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Canadian Energy Centre

Cross-Canada economic benefits of the proposed Northern Gateway Pipeline project

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From the Canadian Energy Centre

Billions in government revenue and thousands of jobs across provinces

Announced in 2006, the Northern Gateway project would have built twin pipelines between Bruderheim, Alta. and a marine terminal at Kitimat, B.C.

One pipeline would export 525,000 barrels per day of heavy oil from Alberta to tidewater markets. The other would import 193,000 barrels per day of condensate to Alberta to dilute heavy oil for pipeline transportation.

The project would have generated significant economic benefits across Canada.

Map courtesy Canada Energy Regulator

The following projections are drawn from the report Public Interest Benefits of the Northern Gateway Project (Wright Mansell Research Ltd., July 2012), which was submitted as reply evidence during the regulatory process.

Financial figures have been adjusted to 2025 dollars using the Bank of Canada’s Inflation Calculator, with $1.00 in 2012 equivalent to $1.34 in 2025.

Total Government Revenue by Region

Between 2019 and 2048, a period encompassing both construction and operations, the Northern Gateway project was projected to generate the following total government revenues by region (direct, indirect and induced):

British Columbia

  • Provincial government revenue: $11.5 billion
  • Federal government revenue: $8.9 billion
  • Total: $20.4 billion

Alberta

  • Provincial government revenue: $49.4 billion
  • Federal government revenue: $41.5 billion
  • Total: $90.9 billion

Ontario

  • Provincial government revenue: $1.7 billion
  • Federal government revenue: $2.7 billion
  • Total: $4.4 billion

Quebec

  • Provincial government revenue: $746 million
  • Federal government revenue: $541 million
  • Total: $1.29 billion

Saskatchewan

  • Provincial government revenue: $6.9 billion
  • Federal government revenue: $4.4 billion
  • Total: $11.3 billion

Other

  • Provincial government revenue: $1.9 billion
  • Federal government revenue: $1.4 billion
  • Total: $3.3 billion

Canada

  • Provincial government revenue: $72.1 billion
  • Federal government revenue: $59.4 billion
  • Total: $131.7 billion

Annual Government Revenue by Region

Over the period 2019 and 2048, the Northern Gateway project was projected to generate the following annual government revenues by region (direct, indirect and induced):

British Columbia

  • Provincial government revenue: $340 million
  • Federal government revenue: $261 million
  • Total: $601 million per year

Alberta

  • Provincial government revenue: $1.5 billion
  • Federal government revenue: $1.2 billion
  • Total: $2.7 billion per year

Ontario

  • Provincial government revenue: $51 million
  • Federal government revenue: $79 million
  • Total: $130 million per year

Quebec

  • Provincial government revenue: $21 million
  • Federal government revenue: $16 million
  • Total: $37 million per year

Saskatchewan

  • Provincial government revenue: $204 million
  • Federal government revenue: $129 million
  • Total: $333 million per year

Other

  • Provincial government revenue: $58 million
  • Federal government revenue: $40 million
  • Total: $98 million per year

Canada

  • Provincial government revenue: $2.1 billion
  • Federal government revenue: $1.7 billion
  • Total: $3.8 billion per year

Employment by Region

Over the period 2019 to 2048, the Northern Gateway Pipeline was projected to generate the following direct, indirect and induced full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs by region:

British Columbia

  • Annual average:  7,736
  • Total over the period: 224,344

Alberta

  • Annual average:  11,798
  • Total over the period: 342,142

Ontario

  • Annual average:  3,061
  • Total over the period: 88,769

Quebec

  • Annual average:  1,003
  • Total over the period: 29,087

Saskatchewan

  • Annual average:  2,127
  • Total over the period: 61,683

Other

  • Annual average:  953
  • Total over the period: 27,637

Canada

  • Annual average:  26,678
  • Total over the period: 773,662
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