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Numbers don’t lie—crime up significantly in Toronto and across Canada

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From the Fraser Institute

By Matthew Lau

It’s no secret that politicians often cherry-pick statistics instead of telling the full story when the full story doesn’t look great for them. For example, amid concerns of rising auto theft and crime, the federal Liberals recently highlighted that auto theft is down 17 per cent versus last year. But this statement deserves scrutiny.

It’s true, according to an insurance fraud prevention group, there was a 17 per cent year-over-year decline in auto thefts in the first half of 2024. But this doesn’t mean the number of stolen cars is low. The reason for the year-over-year decline is that auto thefts spiked significantly in 2023. While down in the first half of 2024, auto thefts remain at elevated levels relative to prior years.

For example, the Toronto Police Service reports 5,049 auto thefts in the first half of 2024—down 21 per cent year-over year, but still very high relative to the first half of 2022 (4,480 auto thefts) and the first half of 2021 (2,769 auto thefts). In light of an 82 per cent increase in auto thefts in Toronto compared to just three years ago, the Trudeau government shouldn’t celebrate too loudly its record at stopping auto theft.

In addition, cherry-picking auto theft stats ignores crime increases in other areas. In the first half of 2024 (again, according to Toronto Police Service data), assaults were up 8 per cent year-over-year, breaking and entering was up 6 per cent, homicides were up 36 per cent, robberies were up 21 per cent, and sexual violations were up 17 per cent.

And it’s not just Toronto.

Take York Region as another example. Faced with criticism that violent crime had risen dramatically in Ontario since the Liberals took office, a Liberal MP from York Region called such criticism “false and misleading” and declared “our community is safe,” citing the York Region Police’s published crime statistics. But what do York Region crime statistics actually show?

Like in Toronto, in the first half of 2024 auto thefts were down significantly versus the first half of 2023, and weapons violations and sexual violations were also down. However, assaults, breaking and entering, drug violations and robberies were all up. And again, the longer-term trend shows most types of crime on the rise. Despite the decline versus 2023, in the first half of 2024 auto thefts were 120 per cent higher than in 2021. And compared to 2021, the first half of 2024 in York Region saw 58 per cent more assaults, 99 per cent more breaking and entering incidents, 193 per cent more robberies, 69 per cent more firearm violations and 51 per cent more violations with other weapons.

Across Canada, That’s just a fact. Statistics Canada’s violent crime severity index in 2023 was 41 per cent higher than in 2014, and a recent report from the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute revealed a surge in violent crime in Canada’s largest urban centres.

However you crunch the numbers, the Trudeau government’s record on crime is nothing to boast about.

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Crime

Minnesota shooter arrested after 48-hour manhunt

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Quick Hit:

Vance Luther Boelter, accused of killing former Minnesota State House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, was captured Sunday after leading law enforcement on a 48-hour manhunt.

Key Details:

  • Boelter allegedly began his rampage around 2 a.m. Saturday at Sen. Hoffman’s Champlin home, shooting both the senator and his wife, Yvette. The couple survived after emergency surgery.

  • He then traveled to Rep. Melissa Hortman’s Brooklyn Park home, where she was pronounced dead at the scene and her husband died shortly afterward at a hospital.

  • The suspect reportedly sent a farewell message to friends before fleeing and was later arrested in a Sibley County field Sunday night.

Diving Deeper:

Vance Luther Boelter, the man accused of carrying out a targeted shooting of Democrat lawmakers in Minnesota, was taken into custody Sunday night following a 48-hour manhunt that spanned multiple counties. According to a report from Alpha News, Boelter was arrested in a field in rural Sibley County after evading police for more than a day following the deadly shootings.

Boelter, 57, previously served as an appointee under Gov. Tim Walz and is accused of murdering former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and injuring State Senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette. Authorities say Boelter disguised himself as a police officer—complete with a uniform, ballistic vest, and Halloween mask—before launching the coordinated attacks early Saturday morning.

The violence began just after 2 a.m. when Boelter allegedly entered the Hoffman residence in Champlin and opened fire. Both the senator and his wife were struck multiple times. Their daughter, Hope, was reportedly shielded from the gunfire by her mother. The couple’s nephew confirmed that both John and Yvette Hoffman underwent surgery and were listed in stable condition by Sunday.

From there, Boelter allegedly drove to Brooklyn Park and carried out a second attack at the home of Speaker Emerita Hortman. The 55-year-old lawmaker was found dead inside the home, while her husband was transported to a hospital where he later succumbed to his injuries.

Brooklyn Park police officers, alerted by the earlier incident, arrived as Boelter was leaving the Hortman residence. A standoff ensued, with officers briefly cornering the suspect inside the house and opening fire, though Boelter managed to flee.

Boelter reportedly sent a chilling text message to close friends. “David and Ron, I love you guys. I made some choices, and you guys don’t know anything about this, but I’m going to be gone for a while,” he wrote. “May be dead shortly, so I just want to let you know I love you guys both and I wish it hadn’t gone this way.”

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Crime

Former Tim Walz appointee wanted for Minnesota shootings

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Quick Hit:

Vance Luther Boelter, a former appointee of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is wanted for Saturday’s targeted shootings that killed a state lawmaker and seriously injured another.

Key Details:

  • Authorities say Boelter first shot Sen. John Hoffman and his wife at their Champlin home before killing former House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband in nearby Brooklyn Park.

  • Dressed in police-style gear, Boelter reportedly exchanged gunfire with officers before retreating from the scene and escaping.

  • Investigators found a list of targeted politicians, including Gov. Walz and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, as well as anti-Trump flyers reading “No Kings.”

Diving Deeper:

Law enforcement sources said Saturday that Vance Luther Boelter, 57, is the primary suspect in a string of targeted shootings that left former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband dead, and Sen. John Hoffman and his wife hospitalized. First reported by The Blaze, Boelter—a former appointee of both Gov. Tim Walz and former Gov. Mark Dayton—has not yet been apprehended.

The violence began early Saturday morning in Champlin, where the gunman reportedly posed as a police officer, dressed in black body armor and carrying a Taser, badge, and radio. Surveillance footage showed him knocking on the Hoffmans’ front door while wearing a cowboy hat and wielding a flashlight. The couple was shot multiple times and rushed into surgery. Both are expected to survive.

Shortly after the Champlin attack, police were dispatched to check on Hortman’s Brooklyn Park residence. According to Police Chief Mark Bruley, officers encountered what looked like a marked police vehicle in her driveway and a man in uniform exiting the home. When they approached, the man opened fire and retreated into the house. Officers returned fire but did not apprehend him. Hortman, 55, was found dead inside, alongside her husband. Their family dog, Gilbert, was also shot.

Police say Boelter left behind a manifesto naming 70 individuals—ranging from elected officials like Walz and Flanagan to abortion providers and Planned Parenthood affiliates.

The suspect also carried “No Kings” flyers, referencing a national day of protest against President Donald Trump. These same flyers were promoted online as part of anti-Trump demonstrations across the country on Saturday. In response to the shootings, the Minnesota State Patrol urged residents to stay home.

Boelter reportedly ran a private security firm, Praetorian Guard Security Services, which offered armed patrols for a steep monthly fee. He held appointments under two Democrat governors—first in 2016 on the Workforce Development Council, and again in 2019 when Gov. Walz tapped him for the state’s Workforce Development Board.

His apparent political motivations are under review, especially following recent controversy surrounding Hortman’s vote to strip state health benefits from illegal immigrants. Just days before her murder, Hortman had broken with her party to side with Republicans on the issue—providing the deciding vote after a tense budget standoff. “They’re right to be mad at me,” she told reporters after the vote, acknowledging anger within her caucus.

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