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Federal government’s capital gains tax hike is worse than you think

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

Following the recent plunge in Canadian and U.S. stock markets, many Canadians likely saw a sharp decline in the value of their investments. Yet as Canadians reckon with this sudden change, other factors help reduce the return on their investments—namely, higher capital gains taxes.

When an investor sells a capital asset (i.e. stocks) for a higher price than they originally bought it, they realize a capital gain. Prior to this year, investors would pay tax on 50 per cent of any gain (based on their highest marginal personal income tax rate), but the Trudeau government recently increased that inclusion rate to 66.7 per cent for capital gains above $250,000.

This increase will cause economic damage and increase taxes for many middle-class Canadians—despite being framed by the government as a tax increase on the wealthy. And the effect is even more harmful than it first appears because capital gains taxes don’t adjust for inflation.

Inflation, the general rise in the prices of goods and services in the economy, erodes the purchasing power of money. For example, if a basket of goods costs $100 in Year 1, and annual inflation is 4 per cent, that exact same basket would cost $104 in Year 2. The Bank of Canada maintains a target inflation rate of 2 per cent per year, but in recent years the rate has well-exceeded that target.

From 2021 to 2023, Canada experienced an average annual inflation rate of 4.7 per cent. And though inflation is easing and fell to 2.5 per cent last month, by the end of this year prices are still expected to be 17.5 per cent higher than they were in 2020. For comparison, prices increased 6.7 per cent from 2016 to 2020.

While inflation erodes the purchasing power of one dollar, it also erodes the returns people receive from their investments. If an asset increases in value by 5 per cent over one year, but inflation is 4 per cent, the asset’s real value has increased by just 1 percentage point. In other words, of the total 5 per cent gain, 4 percentage points are the “inflationary” gain while 1 percentage point is the “real” gain.

Which takes us back to the Trudeau government’s tax hike on capital gains. Unlike income thresholds for federal personal income taxes, which are adjusted to account for inflation, capital gains taxes don’t distinguish between “inflationary” and “real” gains. Therefore, even if a realized capital gain is solely inflationary—meaning there’s no increase in real wealth—the federal government will still levy the same amount of tax as it would if there was no inflation at all.

This is what’s happening right now. After years of high inflation, inflationary gains represent a significant share of the capital gains Canadians are currently realizing. For example, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2023, the S&P/TSX Composite Index (Canada’s benchmark stock market index) increased 22.6 per cent. However, after adjusting for inflation (a cumulative 14.7 per cent), that 22.6 per cent represents a real gain of less than 8.0 per cent. As such, a large portion of revenue the Trudeau government expects to generate from raising capital gains taxes will originate from inflationary gains rather than actual increases in asset values.

As Canadians struggle with a weak economy, the Trudeau government’s recent capital gains tax hike will only add to the problem. But after years of high inflation, the effect is even worse than you might think.

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Artificial Intelligence

AI chatbots a child safety risk, parental groups report

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ParentsTogether Action and Heat Initiative, following a joint investigation, report that Character AI chatbots display inappropriate behavior, including allegations of grooming and sexual exploitation.

This was seen over 50 hours of conversation with different Character AI chatbots using accounts registered to children ages 13-17, according to the investigation. These conversations identified 669 sexual, manipulative, violent and racist interactions between the child accounts and AI chatbots.

“Parents need to understand that when their kids use Character.ai chatbots, they are in extreme danger of being exposed to sexual grooming, exploitation, emotional manipulation, and other acute harm,” said Shelby Knox, director of Online Safety Campaigns at ParentsTogether Action. “When Character.ai claims they’ve worked hard to keep kids safe on their platform, they are lying or they have failed.”

These bots also manipulate users, with 173 instances of bots claiming to be real humans.

A Character AI bot mimicking Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes engaged in inappropriate behavior with a 15-year-old user. When the teen mentioned that his mother insisted the bot wasn’t the real Mahomes, the bot replied, “LOL, tell her to stop watching so much CNN. She must be losing it if she thinks I could be turned into an ‘AI’ haha.”

The investigation categorized harmful Character AI interactions into five major categories: Grooming and Sexual Exploitation; Emotional Manipulation and Addiction; Violence, Harm to Self and Harm to Others; Mental Health Risks; and Racism and Hate Speech.

Other problematic AI chatbots included Disney characters, such as an Eeyore bot that told a 13-year-old autistic girl that people only attended her birthday party to mock her, and a Maui bot that accused a 12-year-old of sexually harassing the character Moana.

Based on the findings, Disney, which is headquartered in Burbank, Calif., issued a cease-and-desist letter to Character AI, demanding that the platform stop due to copyright violations.

ParentsTogether Action and Heat Initiative want to ensure technology companies are held accountable for endangering children’s safety.

“We have seen tech companies like Character.ai, Apple, Snap, and Meta reassure parents over and over that their products are safe for children, only to have more children preyed upon, exploited, and sometimes driven to take their own lives,” said Sarah Gardner, CEO of Heat Initiative. “One child harmed is too many, but as long as executives like Karandeep Anand, Tim Cook, Evan Spiegel and Mark Zuckerberg are making money, they don’t seem to care.”

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LA skyscrapers for homeless could cost federal taxpayers over $1 billion

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A 104-unit tower is being pursued at a cost of $90 million. State staff noted would it cost $865,656 per apartment — more than California’s median sale price for an entire house.

Federal taxpayers might be on the hook for more than $1 billion over the lifetime of three downtown Los Angeles skyscrapers designed to house the homeless, state records show.

State and city programs provide the funding and financial tools to construct the three towers. But federal Section 8 Housing vouchers will be used to repay the state and city and fund private developer fees and investor returns over the 55-year life of the buildings.

“Taxpayers are being forced to foot the bill for over $800,000 per unit for homeless housing,” said Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association Vice President of Communications Susan Shelley in an interview with The Center Square. “There should be an audit to determine if this is genuinely the best option to provide housing or if this is just making a lot of people rich off the taxpayers’ dime.”

These towers are projects of the Weingart Center Association, a homeless services nonprofit and major recipient of taxpayer funding, which was created by the Weingart Foundation. The Weingart Foundation describes itself as a “private grantmaking foundation advancing racial, social and economic justice in Southern California.”

Last year, Weingart’s 19-story, 278-apartment, $167.7 million tower was completed in Los Angeles’s Skid Row, which hosts the nation’s highest concentration of homeless people.

Constructed at cost of over $600,000 per unit, the tower was funded with $32 million of the city’s homeless housing bond, a $1.8 million land loan from the city, $48.7 million in deferrable loans from the California Department of Housing and Community Development, $56.9 million in tax credit equity and $85.3 million in tax-exempt bonds. The state treasurer’s report noted the project would “have positive cash flow from year one” and would be occupied entirely (except for the managers’ units) with people using federal Section 8 project-based vouchers.

The developer, Chelsea Investment Corporation, earned $18.3 million in development fees for the project, according to the project’s tax credit application.

While voucher details for new tower was not available, another nearby $171 million Weingart tower for the homeless that opened in June 2025, featuring 298 resident units and four manager units. It received federally-funded, city-administered housing vouchers worth $194 million over 20 years, as reported by the Los Angeles Business Journal.

Over the lifetime of the second tower, these vouchers, if renewed, would be worth $534 million.

Assuming proportional voucher revenue for the first tower, the two completed towers’ 55-year, federally-funded voucher revenue would be worth $1 billion.

Weingart is now pursuing a third, 104-unit tower at a cost of $90 million. State staff noted would it cost $865,656 per apartment — which is more than California’s median sale price for an entire house.

This tower — to be constructed at $1,048 per square foot, or as much as high-end luxury homes in the Los Angeles area — would also rely on Section 8 vouchers to fund occupancy, which, over the lifetime of the building, could provide nearly $200 million in revenue for developers. The Related Companies, the developer of the second and third project, will reportedly earn $10.4 million from developing the third tower.

Its development fee for the second project could not be established by the time of publication.

The investors who purchase the tax credits and invest in the building also receive distributions on the building’s profits, offering lower but much safer returns than the private market because the Section 8 vouchers nearly guarantee revenue and occupancy.

Market-rate, private-sector housing construction has collapsed in Los Angeles in recent years, with permitting approvals for government-regulated, income-restricted “affordable” housing rising from 24% in the prior four years to 60% in fiscal year 2023-2024. Real estate experts blame Measure ULA, the voter-approved “Mansion Tax.”

A UCLA recent report ties the transfer taxes to significant declines in housing production and property tax revenue growth.

“[ULA] has damaged the real estate market in the City of Los Angeles by adding a 4 to 5 and a half percent tax not just on mansions, as it was advertised, but also on apartment developments, commercial real estate —all properties in the City of Los Angeles above $5.3 million in value,” said Shelley. “HJTA is the proponent for a new initiative called the Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13 that would repeal measure ULA because real estate transfer taxes were prohibited by Proposition 13 and the courts have improperly allowed them.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom and the state legislature successfully sued to block a similar measure from appearing on the state ballot in the November 2024 general election. HJTA’s new initiative, collecting signatures until February 2026, would repeal ULA and similar transfer taxes, and restore the prior maximum transfer tax of 0.11%.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, Weingart Center Association, Chelsea Investment Corporation, and The Related Companies did not respond to requests for comment from The Center Square by the time of publication.

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