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Federal government’s capital gains tax hike is worse than you think

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

Following the recent plunge in Canadian and U.S. stock markets, many Canadians likely saw a sharp decline in the value of their investments. Yet as Canadians reckon with this sudden change, other factors help reduce the return on their investments—namely, higher capital gains taxes.

When an investor sells a capital asset (i.e. stocks) for a higher price than they originally bought it, they realize a capital gain. Prior to this year, investors would pay tax on 50 per cent of any gain (based on their highest marginal personal income tax rate), but the Trudeau government recently increased that inclusion rate to 66.7 per cent for capital gains above $250,000.

This increase will cause economic damage and increase taxes for many middle-class Canadians—despite being framed by the government as a tax increase on the wealthy. And the effect is even more harmful than it first appears because capital gains taxes don’t adjust for inflation.

Inflation, the general rise in the prices of goods and services in the economy, erodes the purchasing power of money. For example, if a basket of goods costs $100 in Year 1, and annual inflation is 4 per cent, that exact same basket would cost $104 in Year 2. The Bank of Canada maintains a target inflation rate of 2 per cent per year, but in recent years the rate has well-exceeded that target.

From 2021 to 2023, Canada experienced an average annual inflation rate of 4.7 per cent. And though inflation is easing and fell to 2.5 per cent last month, by the end of this year prices are still expected to be 17.5 per cent higher than they were in 2020. For comparison, prices increased 6.7 per cent from 2016 to 2020.

While inflation erodes the purchasing power of one dollar, it also erodes the returns people receive from their investments. If an asset increases in value by 5 per cent over one year, but inflation is 4 per cent, the asset’s real value has increased by just 1 percentage point. In other words, of the total 5 per cent gain, 4 percentage points are the “inflationary” gain while 1 percentage point is the “real” gain.

Which takes us back to the Trudeau government’s tax hike on capital gains. Unlike income thresholds for federal personal income taxes, which are adjusted to account for inflation, capital gains taxes don’t distinguish between “inflationary” and “real” gains. Therefore, even if a realized capital gain is solely inflationary—meaning there’s no increase in real wealth—the federal government will still levy the same amount of tax as it would if there was no inflation at all.

This is what’s happening right now. After years of high inflation, inflationary gains represent a significant share of the capital gains Canadians are currently realizing. For example, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2023, the S&P/TSX Composite Index (Canada’s benchmark stock market index) increased 22.6 per cent. However, after adjusting for inflation (a cumulative 14.7 per cent), that 22.6 per cent represents a real gain of less than 8.0 per cent. As such, a large portion of revenue the Trudeau government expects to generate from raising capital gains taxes will originate from inflationary gains rather than actual increases in asset values.

As Canadians struggle with a weak economy, the Trudeau government’s recent capital gains tax hike will only add to the problem. But after years of high inflation, the effect is even worse than you might think.

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Trump reins in oil markets with one Truth Social post

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MXM logo MxM News

Quick Hit:

President Trump on Monday warned oil producers not to raise prices in the wake of U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, cautioning that a spike would benefit America’s enemies. “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING!”

Key Details:

  • Trump posted on Truth Social: “YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”

  • Oil prices fell after the post, with Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate both slipping by about one percent following earlier gains driven by Middle East tensions.

  • In a follow-up message, Trump told the Department of Energy: “DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!”

Diving Deeper:

President Donald Trump issued a blunt warning to oil producers Monday morning following a weekend of U.S. military action against Iran, urging them to keep prices under control amid rising geopolitical tensions. His message, posted on Truth Social, was clear and emphatic: “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”

The timing of the post was significant. Over the weekend, U.S. forces struck three major Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—in a bold escalation that raised fears of a broader regional conflict and potential threats to global energy infrastructure. Initial market reactions were swift, with Brent Crude jumping over 5 percent and briefly breaking above $81 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate followed, climbing to its highest level since January.

However, after Trump’s post circulated Monday, both benchmarks began to pull back, each falling by about one percent. Traders appeared to interpret Trump’s comments as a call for restraint, especially as domestic producers weigh output decisions amid a softening price environment and a looser global supply picture.

While Trump didn’t name names, his message seemed clearly aimed at American oil companies, some of which have recently floated the possibility of scaling back production due to lower margins. Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues its efforts to bring previously curtailed output back online, further complicating the global supply-demand dynamic.

In a second post, Trump added: “To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!”

Despite the military flare-up, markets have largely stabilized, suggesting that investors are waiting to see how Iran will respond. Tehran’s parliament has called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipping, but such a move would require the approval of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

For now, traders appear cautious but unconvinced that supply routes will be disrupted in the immediate term. Trump, however, has made it clear that if oil producers try to capitalize on the crisis by raising prices, he’ll be watching—and he won’t be quiet.

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Banks

Scrapping net-zero commitments step in right direction for Canadian Pension Plan

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From the Fraser Institute

By Matthew Lau

And in January, all of Canada’s six largest banks quit the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, an alliance formerly led by Mark Carney (before he resigned to run for leadership of the Liberal Party) that aimed to align banking activities with net-zero emissions by 2050.

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) has cancelled its commitment, established just three years ago, to transition to net-zero emissions by 2050. According to the CPPIB, “Forcing alignment with rigid milestones could lead to investment decisions that are misaligned with our investment strategy.”

This latest development is good news. The CPPIB, which invest the funds Canadians contribute to the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), has a fiduciary duty to Canadians who are forced to pay into the CPP and who rely on it for retirement income. The CPPIB’s objective should not be climate activism or other environmental or social concerns, but risk-adjusted financial returns. And as noted in a broad literature review by Steven Globerman, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute, there’s a lack of consistent evidence that pursuing ESG (environmental, social and governance) objectives helps improve financial returns.

Indeed, as economist John Cochrane pointed out, it’s logically impossible for ESG investing to achieve social or environmental goals while also improving financial returns. That’s because investors push for these goals by supplying firms aligned with these goals with cheaper capital. But cheaper capital for the firm is equivalent to lower returns for the investor. Therefore, “if you don’t lose money on ESG investing, ESG investing doesn’t work,” Cochrane explained. “Take your pick.”

The CPPIB is not alone among financial institutions abandoning environmental objectives in recent months. In April, Canada’s largest company by market capitalization, RBC, announced it will cancel its sustainable finance targets and reduce its environmental disclosures due to new federal rules around how companies make claims about their environmental performance.

And in January, all of Canada’s six largest banks quit the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, an alliance formerly led by Mark Carney (before he resigned to run for leadership of the Liberal Party) that aimed to align banking activities with net-zero emissions by 2050. Shortly before Canada’s six largest banks quit the initiative, the six largest U.S. banks did the same.

There’s a second potential benefit to the CPPIB cancelling its net-zero commitment. Now, perhaps with the net-zero objective out of the way, the CPPIB can rein in some of the administrative and management expenses associated with pursuing net-zero.

As Andrew Coyne noted in a recent commentary, the CPPIB has become bloated in the past two decades. Before 2006, the CPP invested passively, which meant it invested Canadians’ money in a way that tracked market indexes. But since switching to active investing, which includes picking stocks and other strategies, the CPPIB ballooned from 150 employees and total costs of $118 million to more than 2,100 employees and total expenses (before taxes and financing) of more than $6 billion.

This administrative ballooning took place well before the rise of environmentally-themed investing or the CPPIB’s announcement of net-zero targets, but the net-zero targets didn’t help. And as Coyne noted, the CPPIB’s active investment strategy in general has not improved financial returns either.

On the contrary, since switching to active investing the CPPIB has underperformed the index to a cumulative tune of about $70 billion, or nearly one-tenth of its current fund size. “The fund’s managers,” Coyne concluded, “have spent nearly two decades and a total of $53-billion trying to beat the market, only to produce a fund that is nearly 10-per-cent smaller than it would be had they just heaved darts at the listings.”

Scrapping net-zero commitments won’t turn that awful track record around overnight. But it’s finally a step in the right direction.

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