Connect with us

Alberta

Start-up of Trans Mountain expansion ‘going very well’ as global buyers ink deals for Canadian crude

Published

6 minute read

A worker at Trans Mountain’s Burnaby Terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Deborah Jaremko

Chinese refiner pays about US$10 more for oil off TMX compared to sales value in Alberta

Canada’s oil sands producers are “back in the limelight” for investors following completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, according to a report by Enervus Intelligence Research.

For the first time in the better part of a decade, there is now breathing room on the system to ship all of the oil producers are able to sell off the coast of B.C.

Up until this May, Trans Mountain was regularly overbooked. Not anymore.

The crude carrier Dubai Angel picked up the first shipment from the long-awaited expansion on May 22, setting sail for China and a customer of oil sands producer Suncor Energy.

Analysts estimate Trans Mountain loaded 20 vessels in June, compared to a pre-expansion average of five per month.

“You’re seeing multiple buyers. It’s going very well,” said Phil Skolnick, managing director of research with New York-based Eight Capital.

“You’re seeing the exact buyers that we always thought were going to show up, the U.S. west coast refineries and as well as the Asian refineries, and there was a shipment that went to India as well.”

The “Golden Weld” in April 2024 marked the mechanical completion and end of construction for the Trans Mountain expansion project. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

Canadian crude in demand on the global market

Asian markets – particularly China, where refineries can process “substantial quantities” of extra heavy crude and bitumen – are now “opened in earnest” to Canadian oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its June Oil 2024 report.

“There’s demand for this crude and people are going to make deals,” said Kevin Birn, chief analyst of Canadian oil markets with S&P Global.

The IEA said Canadian crude will increasingly compete with heavy oil from other countries, particularly those in Latin America and the Middle East.

June’s loading of 20 vessels is slightly lower than the 22 vessels Trans Mountain had targeted, but Skolnick said a few bumps in the project’s ramp-up are to be expected.

“About three months ago, the shippers were telling investors on their calls, don’t expect it to be a smooth ramp up, it’s going to be a bit bumpy, but I think they’re expecting by Q4 you should start seeing everyone at peak rates,” Skolnick said.

Delivering higher prices

Trans Mountain’s expanded Westridge Terminal at Burnaby, B.C. now has capacity to load 34 so-called “Aframax” vessels each month.

One of the first deals, with Chinese refiner Rongsheng Petrochemical, indicates the Trans Mountain expansion is delivering on one of its expected benefits – higher prices for Canadian oil.

Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office has said that an increase of US$5 per barrel for Canadian heavy oil over one year would add $6 billion to Canada’s economy.

The June deal between Rongsheng and an unnamed oil sands shipper saw a shipment of Access Western Blend (AWB) purchased for approximately US$6 per barrel below the Brent global oil benchmark. That implies an AWB selling price of approximately US$75 per barrel, or about US$10 more than the price received for AWB in Alberta.

Expanded export capacity at the Trans Mountain Westridge Terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

More pipeline capacity needed

Oil sands production – currently about 3.4 million barrels per day – is projected to rise to 3.8 million barrels per day by the end of the decade before declining slightly to about 3.6 million barrels per day in 2035, according to the latest outlook by S&P Global.

“Despite the recent completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion project, additional capacity will still be needed, likely via expansion or optimization of the existing pipeline system,” wrote Birn and S&P senior research analyst Celina Hwang in May.

“By 2026, we forecast the need for further export capacity to ensure that the system remains balanced on pipeline economics.”

Uncertainty over the federal government’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap “adds hesitation” to companies considering large-scale production growth, wrote Birn and Hwang.

Global oil demand rising

World oil demand, which according to the IEA reached a record 103 million barrels per day in 2023, is projected to continue rising despite increased investment in renewable and alternative energy.

June outlook by the International Energy Forum (IEF) pegs 2030 oil demand at nearly 110 million barrels per day.

“More investment in new oil and gas supply is needed to meet growing demand and maintain energy market stability, which is the foundation of global economic and social well-being,” said IEF secretary Joseph McMonigle.

Todayville is a digital media and technology company. We profile unique stories and events in our community. Register and promote your community event for free.

Follow Author

Alberta

Jann Arden’s Rant Will Only Fuel Alberta’s Separation Fire

Published on

From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Lee Harding

In a fiery takedown of Alberta sovereigntists, Jann Arden may have poured gas on the sovereignty fire instead of dousing it. Lee Harding argues that her vulgar swipe ignored Alberta’s raw deal in Confederation, from lopsided equalization to federal overreach, and only deepens Western alienation. Rather than shaming Albertans into silence, her outburst might push them closer to the exit.

The singer’s foul-mouthed tirade won’t shame Alberta into silence. It’ll only push the province further toward the door

Jann Arden’s recent tirade against sovereigntist Albertans will probably do more to motivate them than set them back.

In an online rant, the Calgary-born-and-raised singer lowered public discourse a few notches.

“Hey, Alberta. Hey, you bunch of fu-king separatist wackos. How you doing? Feeling good about yourselves? You’re an embarrassment to this country. Everything you have, everything that you have enjoyed, cherished and benefited from, comes from being part of one of the greatest countries on the planet.”

Ha! Arden only embarrassed herself with her rudeness and ignorance.

Canada has been milking Alberta for a long time. In a 2024 study, the Fraser Institute showed that from 2007 to 2022, Albertans contributed $244.6 billion more in taxes and other payments to the federal government than they received in federal spending, more than five times as much as British Columbians or Ontarians. The other seven provinces were net takers.

Alberta is carrying Canada’s load by doing many things right, only to get zero respect and little benefit in return. For the past 10 years, Ottawa has done everything it can to undermine the energy sector through regulation and taxation, and encroach on provincial jurisdiction through legislation. Rather than feeding and protecting the goose that lays the golden eggs, it would rather pluck out its feathers.

The imbalance is nothing new. Since Confederation, most Canadian provinces have enjoyed jurisdiction over their natural resources. However, Alberta and Saskatchewan didn’t get that until 1930. When equalization began in 1957, Alberta received payments for eight years and never again. Quebec has been paid every year.

Ottawa went the route of more taxation, programs and debt, while Alberta took a more conservative approach. Its capacity to spend rose and fell with the price of oil. Just when Alberta hit another good wave, Ottawa launched the National Energy Program in the early 1980s—just to remind them who ruled the country and to whose benefit. Alberta got reduced profits and Eastern Canadians got cheap gas.

Alberta has been stuck in an abusive relationship for a long time and is wondering if it wouldn’t be better to be on her own. In the background is another suitor named Donald Trump, who would relieve Alberta of those pesky equalization payments and onerous regulations. The province would become the “cherished 51st state” instead of some western challenger to Central Canadian dominance that always needs to be put in its place.

Arden can’t see any of this. And her vitriol does nothing to make Albertans want to stay.

“You guys have your head so far up your as-es that you obviously can’t see what pri-ks you are,” Arden ranted. “The way you are treating your fellow citizens, your fellow Canadians, you guys are a bunch of creepy little pri-ks…

“Alberta will never separate from Canada. It’s never going to happen because people like me are going to stand up, throw their shoulders back, and keep fu-king yelling and keep standing up for what I know is right.”

Oh? Should Albertans stay because an insulting singer inspires a screaming mob? Will they suddenly find gratitude?

No. Abused Albertans have had enough. Their wants are not only reasonable, they’re good and fair policy. Canadians and their federal government should treat Alberta with proper respect, care about its grievances and feelings, and appreciate how they’d be a whole lot worse without her.

Lee Harding is a research fellow for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

Continue Reading

Alberta

How Trump and Alberta might just save Canada

Published on

This article supplied by Troy Media.

Troy Media By Our View

Canada faces a reckoning as Trump and Alberta disrupt long-held national assumptions

It may sound counterintuitive, but U.S. President Donald Trump and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith might be doing more to strengthen Canadian unity and prosperity than anyone in Ottawa.

Both are forcing a broken system long overdue for reform to face its flaws—Trump from the outside, Alberta from within. Trump’s revived protectionism is pushing Canada to confront its economic dependence on the United States, while Alberta’s bold demands are exposing the structural weaknesses of Canadian federalism. This unlikely convergence of pressure could lead to reform that strengthens the nation.

Trump’s renewed imposition of tariffs on Canadian imports, including a 25 per cent levy on most goods and a 10 per cent tariff on energy products, has
reignited trade tensions between the two nations. Trump has done this before: his 2018 tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum sparked a brief but damaging trade war. His new measures are already disrupting industries reliant on crossborder supply chains, particularly in critical minerals.

However, there is a significant caveat: goods that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—the trade deal that
replaced NAFTA—are exempt from these tariffs. This exemption, initially set to expire on April 2, 2025, has been extended indefinitely, providing relief to industries that meet the agreement’s rules of origin. For example, auto parts manufactured in Canada that comply with USMCA standards are exempt from the newly announced duties.

Even with these carve-outs, the broader trade friction remains. This tension could be just what Canada needs. An unreliable U.S. trade partner may finally push Canadian policymakers to diversify markets, boost productivity and reduce our long-standing dependence on a single customer. The pain may be temporary, but the lessons could be permanent.

Meanwhile, Alberta is making it clear that business as usual will no longer be tolerated. Smith has issued a wide-ranging list of demands, including a repeal of Bill C-69—often called the “no more pipelines” bill by critics—which imposed stricter federal reviews on major energy projects; freedom to develop oil and gas resources without federal emissions caps; and the ability to opt out of industrial carbon taxes and net-zero vehicle mandates.

Some critics call Alberta’s stance reckless or anti-environment. But behind the rhetoric lies a growing frustration with a system that penalizes the very provinces driving Canada’s economy. Alberta isn’t seeking favours—it’s demanding fairness. If Ottawa fails to respond, the province is prepared to hold an independence referendum. That’s no longer an idle threat.

Canada’s deeper problems go well beyond Alberta. Interprovincial trade barriers fragment our economy. Energy infrastructure is blocked or stalled. And the equalization program sends billions to provinces that refuse to develop their own resources. Equalization is meant to ensure all provinces can deliver comparable public services, but the formula often penalizes growth-oriented provinces like Alberta while rewarding inaction. For decades, we’ve watched opportunity slip through our fingers, often by our own design.

External and internal forces are now creating the urgency we’ve lacked. Canadians are increasingly asking why internal trade isn’t as free as external
trade. Support for pipelines and energy independence is growing, even in provinces that previously opposed them. With global instability rising, secure
access to our own energy and markets is no longer optional—it’s essential.

It’s also hard to justify Quebec receiving $13 billion annually while banning fracking and refusing to develop its shale gas. The equalization formula discourages innovation, investment and self-reliance in recipient provinces. That’s not national solidarity—it’s economic dead weight.

This moment may feel tense, even dangerous. But real progress often begins with discomfort. Much like a labour negotiation or a market correction, shortterm conflict can lead to long-term renewal.

Canada has two choices: continue muddling along, or use this moment to reset and rebuild. That means cutting internal trade barriers. It means modernizing equalization. It means saying yes to energy infrastructure that strengthens national sovereignty. And above all, it means recognizing that the West’s prosperity is Canada’s prosperity.

Trump isn’t acting with Canada’s best interests in mind. Neither is Alberta trying to dismantle the country. But both are forcing us to look in the mirror. If we take this opportunity seriously, we may come out of it with a stronger, more selfreliant and united Canada.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.

Continue Reading

Trending

X