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Buckle Up for Summer Blackouts: Wind Is Already Failing Texas in Spring

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9 minute read

From Heartland Daily News

By Jason Isaac

When the wind blows too much, natural gas plants are forced to shut down because they can’t underbid wind producers that can bid zero or negative. But when the wind doesn’t blow when it is needed, wind generators can afford the loss of revenue because they earn so much from tax subsidies.

It’s been all quiet on the electric grid front for a few months — but don’t get your hopes up. Over the last month, electricity prices came near the $5000/MWh regulatory cap three separate times because the wind wasn’t blowing enough when the sun went down.

If this sounds familiar, you’re not wrong.

You may hear from the drive-by media that the problem is unseasonably warm temperatures, or that there are a lot of power plants down for maintenance. But high 80s in April and low 90s in May are not unusual, and the Texas grid used to manage these weather changes with no problems. From 2014 to 2016, real-time prices only went over $1000/MWh twice, but it’s happened three times already this year.

If the grid is already on shaky ground, with many weeks to go before blistering triple-digit temperatures shoot electric demand through the roof, all signs are pointing to an unpleasant summer. 

The problem with the Texas grid is so simple it’s infuriating: Relying too heavily on unpredictable wind and solar, without enough reliable reserve capacity, means higher volatility — leading to higher prices and increasing need for expensive interventions by ERCOT to avoid outages. This is why your electric bill is going up and up even though wind and solar are supposed to be cheap.

While Texas certainly has a lot of sun, peak solar output almost never aligns with peak electric usage. The Lone Star State also has plenty of wind, but wind generation is wildly unpredictable —  by nature. It’s not unusual for a wind generator’s output to swing 60 percentage points or more in a single week.

Take last month, for example. On Tuesday, April 16, electricity prices reached their cap because ERCOT’s day-ahead wind forecast was off by 50%. Five gigawatts of wind we were counting on to power Texas as the sun went down didn’t show up. That was the equivalent of simultaneously shutting down 10 large natural gas units, or all of the state’s nuclear capacity. If the latter occurred, the news media would be up in arms (and rightfully so). But because the culprit was the political darling of both the left and the right, no one heard about it.

ERCOT hasn’t been the best at predicting wind output, and the problem isn’t entirely its fault. Wind veers so wildly between extremes it’s nearly impossible to plan a sustainable grid around its fickleness — yet wind makes up 26% of our generating capacity.

It’s all because lucrative tax breaks and subsidies at the state and federal level, combined with flaws in ERCOT’s market design, make it almost impossible for wind to lose money — and harder than ever for natural gas to compete, even though it’s far more reliable and affordable. When the wind blows too much, natural gas plants are forced to shut down because they can’t underbid wind producers that can bid zero or negative. But when the wind doesn’t blow when it is needed, wind generators can afford the loss of revenue because they earn so much from tax subsidies.

Imagine trying to open a restaurant when your competitor next door is paying its customers to eat there. It’s no wonder natural gas capacity in ERCOT has barely grown over the past decade, and not enough to make up for losses of coal plants, while demand has been steadily increasing.

All those subsidies are hurting our most reliable, affordable energy producers and putting our economy at risk — leaving you and me, the taxpayers on the hook.

While most political issues are far more complex and nuanced than brazen attack ads and headlines would lead you to believe, in this case, it really does boil down to one simple problem.

And it would be easy to solve — if lawmakers are willing to go against the grain of political correctness and set a clear reliability standard for the wind and solar generators that want to connect to our grid.

Unfortunately, that’s a gargantuan “if.”

As a former lawmaker, I understand the pressures our legislators are under to toe the line on alternative energy. Major utilities embracing World Economic Forum- and United Nations-aligned “energy transition” policies that seek to redefine what’s “clean” and what’s “pollution” are making matters worse. And the incessant misinformation from their well-funded lobby that promise rural “economic development” and “cheap energy” sound too good to be true, because they are.

Elected officials don’t serve the lobby. They serve Texans — or, at least, they should.

And Texans want a reliable, affordable grid. They want to not have to worry about losing power in the heat of the summer or the dead of winter. The Legislature must put a stop to these market-distorting subsidies and make reliability, not popularity, the priority for our electric grid.

Gov. Greg Abbott sent a letter on July 6, 2021 to members of the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) directing them to “take immediate action to improve electric reliability across the state.” The second directive was to “Allocate reliability costs to generation resources that cannot guarantee their own availability, such as wind or solar power.” Unfortunately, the PUC hasn’t acted on this directive or even studied it. The costs of scarcity on the grid are estimated to have exceeded $12B in 2023, which is equal to two-thirds of the property tax relief passed in the 88th Legislature, all paid for by ratepayers.

“Unfortunately for Texans, the ERCOT grid is moving from a single grid with gas and coal power plants running efficiently all day to two grids: one for wind and solar and one for expensive backup power that fills in the gaps when there is not enough wind and sun,” says Dr. Brent Bennett, policy director for Life:Powered at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. “Every time these scarcity events occur, whether due to real scarcity or artificial scarcity created by ERCOT’s operating policies, ratepayers are shelling out tens to hundreds of millions of dollars for backup power. It is the most expensive way to operate a grid, and Texans will feel the bite as these costs are absorbed over time.”

The Californication of our grid is unfolding before our eyes. If the Legislature and the PUC don’t act fast, the Texas miracle won’t last.

The Honorable Jason Isaac is CEO of the American Energy Institute and a senior fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. He previously served four terms in the Texas House of Representatives

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Business

The Liberals Finally Show Up to Work in 2025

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From the National Citizens Coalition

Canadians Demand Action, Not More Empty Promises

The National Citizens Coalition (NCC) today calls out the Liberal government for their belated return to the House of Commons in 2025, after months of dodging accountability while Canadians grapple with skyrocketing costs, unaffordable housing, crime and chaos, and the fallout of a decade of failed Liberal policies.

While the Liberals dust off their seats, millions of Canadians have been struggling to pay for groceries, keep a roof over their heads, or envision a future where hard work still pays off. The NCC demands the government stop hiding behind empty rhetoric and deliver meaningful, common-sense actions to address the crises they’ve exacerbated.

“After years of empty gestures, empty rhetoric, and empty promises, showing up to Parliament in 2025 isn’t an achievement – it’s the bare minimum. Canadians are drowning in high taxes, inflation, and a housing crisis, and they deserve real solutions, not more speeches,” says NCC Director Alexander Brown.

The NCC calls on the Liberal government to immediately prioritize:

Immediate tax relief to put money back in the pockets of hardworking Canadians, including axing the HIDDEN CARBON TAX on our Great Canadian businesses.

Concrete steps to slash immigration back to responsible, sustainable norms; including a crackdown on fraudulent ‘diploma mills,’ and the abolishment of the ‘Temporary Foreign Worker’ program, to protect Canadian jobs, and the jobs of our youth.

Meaningful, immediate efforts to increase housing supply, by slashing red tape and bureaucratic roadblocks that drive up development costs.

An end to wasteful spending on pet projects and corporate handouts that do nothing for struggling families.

Steps toward meaningful criminal justice reform; including an end to Liberal catch-and-release bail for repeat violent offenders.

A plan to restore economic opportunity, so young Canadians can afford homes and build a future without fleeing the country.

And it’s time to Kill Bill C-69 — and Build Pipelines.

Working Canadians have heard enough platitudes – it’s time for results. The government must act decisively to fix the mess they’ve created or step aside for those who will. With just a few short weeks before the Liberals abscond for another vacation, IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to match the urgency of the moment, and to atone for the insult of the Liberals’ cynical, dishonest, “elbows up” campaign that left millions of young, working-age Canadians without hope for the future.

About the National Citizens Coalition:

Founded in 1967, the National Citizens Coalition is a non-profit organization dedicated to advocating for lower taxes, less government waste, and greater individual freedom. We stand for common-sense policies that once again put Canadians first.

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Economy

If the Liberal government has a plan for the future of conventional energy, now would be a good time to tell us what it is.

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From Energy Now 

By Jim Warren

During the Cold War, Western journalists and political analysts were typically unable to penetrate the secrecy surrounding the machinations of upper level Soviet politics. They would  struggle to discern who the top contenders were in the contest to replace the current party leader and what a new leader might mean for geopolitics.

The lack of trustworthy official information prompted Kremlin watchers to adopt some rather desperate and sometimes absurd methods for divining the twists and turns of internal Communist Party intrigues.


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For instance, they would look at photos of the party leadership on the reviewing stand for the annual May Day military parade. They would identify how close or far each member of the official party on the dais was sitting from the party leader. The proximity rankings were then compared with where people were positioned in relation to the leader at last year’s parade. Those who stood or sat closer to the leader than they did the previous year were presumed to be on their way up. Those who stood further away might be on their way to Siberia.

After one month in office it looks like the Carney government will require observers to go to similarly ridiculous lengths to figure out what cabinet ministers really mean when making public statements. Last week, a column by Calgary Sun’s Rick Bell discussed Danielle Smith’s demand that the Liberals quit talking in riddles. Bell suggested the Liberals would rather “stick handle” their way through questions about their policy positions than clearly indicate what those positions are.

Supporters of the oil, gas and pipeline sectors in the West remain uncertain and unconvinced when it comes to the Liberal government’s commitment to getting new pipelines built. This week’s Speech from the Throne certainly didn’t clarify the government’s plans for conventional energy production and exports.

The prime minister’s flip flopping has been particularly unhelpful. He has distanced himself from the comments he made at Kelowna early in the election campaign. While speaking there, Carney temporarily impressed supporters of new export pipelines by indicating he would use the emergency powers of the federal government to ensure oil pipelines are built to connect the prairies with the East and West coasts. Several days later he indicated he wouldn’t use those powers to override the objections of Quebec.

Currently, the prime minister says he is taking a wait and see approach. Last week he said a new pipeline extending from the prairies to a Canadian coastline is one of many possibilities depending on what sort of consensus develops around energy policy. When fumbling to explain his consensus approach, he produced the sort of word salad Danielle Smith could justifiably refer to as “talking in riddles.”

During the new government’s first Question Period on May 28, Andrew Scheer asked Carney what he intended to do about Bill C-69, the infamous No More Pipelines Bill. True to form Carney avoided providing a clear answer to the question. He responded with irrelevant canned talking points that failed to mention either the noxious Bill or increasing oil export opportunities.

Last week, Tim Hodgson, Canada’s new Energy Minister told people at a Calgary Chamber of Commerce event some of the of things they hoped to hear. According to a National Post report on the event Hodgson said he “promised to deliver new infrastructure to get Canadian energy to the coast and ultimately ‘to trusted allies’ outside the U.S.”

Hodgson also had comforting words for those concerned that Canada’s cumbersome project approval process could stymie new pipeline approval and construction. He said “Canada will no longer be defined by delay. We will be defined by delivery.”

Talk is cheap. It is difficult to imagine how costly pipeline construction delays and cancellations can be prevented without first getting rid of Bill C-69. If Hodgson was truly being sincere you’d think he would have announced plans are in the works to overturn C-69 or to at least make serious revisions to it. Since he never went that far in his remarks, the presentation fell far short of announcing that a credible plan is currently being considered.

The week prior to Hodgson’s Calgary speech, his cabinet colleague Steven Guilbeault announced that Canada did not need any new pipelines because the Trans Mountain was not operating at full capacity. Guilbeault also said that by the time a new pipeline could be built the global demand for oil and gas will have declined so much it wouldn’t be needed. Unfortunately, if a new pipeline project isn’t approved and completed within the next 15 years, Gulibeault’s second point will be on its way to becoming a self-fulfilled Liberal prophecy.

So who really speaks for the government on conventional energy policy? We’ve been presented with three different versions from three of the people who sit around the cabinet table, one of whom is supposed to be the boss. Apparently it is no longer the case that ministers are duty bound to refrain from criticizing or deviating from government policy. Yet, as far as we know, nobody has been reprimanded for announcing an incorrect version of the Liberals’ conventional energy policy.

We have been left to guess at the answers to critical questions. Has the government initiated a plan for making policy changes that deal with the concerns of the conventional energy sector and the governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan? If so, could someone please tell us what it is?

Transparency and clarity on the conventional energy file seem especially important at a time when Alberta is posed to hold a referendum on separation. Perhaps the Liberals don’t appreciate how much the lack of a coherent position in favour of building one or more new pipelines threatens national unity. Maybe their standard election winning formula of “screw the West, we’ll take the rest,” reflects what they have adopted as their long-term approach to the legitimate demands of alienated Westerners.

Barring the appearance of a clearly articulated official policy statement we might need to adopt a Canadian version of Kremlinology. That’s about the only means we would have to determine who, if anyone, is running the government—more specifically its conventional energy policy. Knowing which ministers speak for official government policy and which don’t could be useful.

We might need to ask questions like the following:

  • Which cabinet ministers get to sit at the cool kids’ table at the parliamentary cafeteria?
  • Which minister’s favourite companies and environmental groups have received the biggest grants and contracts since Carney became prime minister?
  • Which minister enjoys the most taxpayer funded flights and luxury hotel room stays to attend international gabfests like The World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland or this year’s COP 30 conference in Brazil, etc.?
  • According to Parliament Hill gossip, who is most likely bound for Siberia—Steven Guilbeault or Tim Hodgson? And, when, if ever, will Jonathan Wilkinson be released from the backbench gulag and allowed back into cabinet? And why was he sent there in the first place—not green enough, or too green?
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