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New Research Further Demonstrates Problems with Surface Temperature Records and Models

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6 minute read

From Heartland Daily News

H. Sterling Burnett

 

By H. Sterling Burnett

It is not just that the Earth has warmed less than biased temperature measurements indicate, it has also warmed less than climate models have said it should for the amount of CO2 humans have emitted into the atmosphere.

Climate Change Weekly has long detailed the severe problems with surface temperature records, driven largely by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect compromising the integrity of the vast majority of temperature stations.

In two studies for The Heartland Institute, meteorologist Anthony Watts detailed the extent to which the surface station record in the United States is compromised by station siting that violates the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) own standards for the proper, unbiased, siting of surface stations. Watts’ initial 2009 study found that 89 percent of the surface stations in NOAA’s and the National Weather Service’s (NWS) system were poorly sited and biased. After the study, NOAA/NWS closed some of the most severely compromised, ridiculously sited stations highlighted in report. Indeed, NOAA had already recognized the problem and had prior to the first study’s release established the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN), consisting of 137 climate observing stations with the best equipment, existing in stable locations unlikely to ever be compromised by nearby development. At the same time, however, NOAA also added thousands of previously unregulated stations established and maintained by others to its system.

The larger system provides more comprehensive coverage, but the vast majority of the stations are, unsurprisingly, poorly sited. As a result, Watts’ follow up survey of NOAA’s surface station network found 96 percent of the stations used to determine U.S. average temperatures are biased upward due to poor siting. The UHI has compromised them.

How bad is the problem? As explained in an article in The Epoch Times, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has estimated that “daytime temperatures in urban areas are 1–7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than temperatures in outlying areas, and nighttime temperatures are about 2–5 degrees Fahrenheit higher.” Whereas the temperature record from the USCRN indicates little or no temperature change during its 18 years of existence, the broader network supports claims that the U.S. is warming. By the way, as detailed in previous Climate Change Weekly posts, what’s true for the United States is also true for the global surface station network and, since 2015, for the ocean temperature measurement system. Both are biased by poor siting compromising the validity of the temperatures measured.

A new report from the Heritage Foundation by Roy Spencer, Ph.D., a long-time friend of The Heartland Institute, principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and currently a visiting fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment, looks at a slightly different problem with temperatures: the difference between measured warming and climate model temperature projections. It is not just that the Earth has warmed less than biased temperature measurements indicate, it has also warmed less than climate models have said it should for the amount of CO2 humans have emitted into the atmosphere.

Spencer’s research found recent warming is likely not due solely to human greenhouse gas emissions, and the warming experienced is substantially less than climate models have predicted—43 percent less, in fact. And that’s even when readings from the UHI-biased stations are included.

Spencer examined summertime temperature readings for 12 Corn Belt states in the United States. Each of the 36 models he compared to measured warming by surface stations, weather balloons, and global satellites overstated the amount of warming experienced, with most of the models off by 100 percent or more. (See the graphic, below)

Spencer is also working on a large-scale study to explain the discrepancy between urban and rural temperature stations globally, and how that plays into recent claims temperatures are setting all-time records. His preliminary data suggests measured warming is strongly correlated to population density. As cities grow, and populations increase and become more densely packed, temperatures in urban and suburban areas rise faster than in the surrounding countryside, once again confirming Watts’ conclusion that the temperature record is compromised by UHI.

If Watts’ and Spencer’s research are correct, not only do climate models “run too hot,” as even some of their proponents have been forced to admit, but the regularly reported surface station record is running too hot as well.

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Energy

Fresh Off Their Major Victory On Gas Export Terminals, Enviros Set Sights On New Target: Oil Exports

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By NICK POPE

 

Months after President Joe Biden handed environmentalists a major win by pausing new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, activist groups are beginning to turn their attention to deepwater oil export hubs.

A coalition of 19 climate activist organizations — including the Sierra Club, Earthjustice and the Sunrise Movement’s New Orleans chapter — wrote a Thursday letter to Biden, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Maritime Administration Administrator Adm. Ann Phillips urging the administration to halt approvals of proposed deepwater crude oil export facilities. The letter signals that the environmental lobby is turning its attention to a new target after the White House opted to pause new LNG export hub approvals in January following a considerable activist campaign.

“The undersigned urge the White House and Department of Transportation (DOT) to halt and reevaluate its licensing review of proposed deepwater crude oil export facilities to update and ensure the validity of the agency’s “national interest” determinations and related Deepwater Port Act (DWPA) project review,” the activist groups wrote. “The licensing of massive deepwater crude oil exports leads to disastrous climate-disrupting pollution and environmental injustices and would lock in decades of fossil fuel dependence that undercut the pathway to a clean energy economy.”

Oil Export Terminals Letter by Nick Pope on Scribd

“At minimum, we ask the Administration to update its outdated analysis under the DWPA and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to address the harms generated by expansive oil exports on the climate, as well as consequences for environmental justice communities along the Gulf Coast, and for the national interest in energy sufficiency,” they continued.

American oil exports are “key” to global supply, especially in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting changes in global energy markets, according to Bloomberg News. The U.S. became a net oil exporter in 2020 for the first time since 1949, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and global oil demand is expected to grow through at least 2028, according to the International Energy Agency.

“It’s hard to call yourself a Climate President when more fossil fuels are being produced and exported by the U.S. than ever before,” James Hiatt, founder of For a Better Bayou, one of the letter’s signatories, said in a statement. “Approving massive oil export terminals in the Gulf of Mexico not only exacerbates our deadly fossil fuel addiction, but also blatantly disregards the health and wellbeing of environmental justice communities in the region. This administration is acting less like a beacon of hope and more like an enabler of dirty energy. It is time for a course correction towards real climate action.”

Biden handed environmental activists a huge victory when he paused approvals for new LNG export terminals in January, instructing his administration to closely examine the climate impacts of proposed facilities alongside economic and security considerations. The LNG pause stands as one of Biden’s biggest decisions on climate through his first term, and activists applauded the move while elected Republicans and the oil and gas industry have strongly opposed it.

Well-funded environmental organizations and young voters figure to be key bastions of support for Biden in the 2024 election cycle as he attempts to secure a second term in office and prevent the return of former President Donald Trump. While the Biden administration has spent more than $1 trillion and pushed stringent regulations to advance its sweeping climate agenda, most voters remain most concerned about the economy, inflation and immigration, with a much smaller share identifying climate change as the top issue facing the country, according to recent polling data.

Neither the White House nor the DOT responded immediately to requests for comment.

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illegal immigration

Texas governor, GOP blast Biden’s latest immigration plan

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From The Center Square

Six months ahead of the November election, President Joe Biden is reportedly planning on proposing an “aggressive new immigration strategy” after more than at least 11 million foreign nationals have illegally entered the country during his tenure.

Democrats are preparing to launch an “aggressive new immigration strategy” ahead of the election, NBC News reported. Biden administration officials met with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and others to discuss ways to “force votes that Republicans would be likely to oppose,” on immigration and border security, according to the report.

The president is also “considering invoking a sweeping presidential authority to enact a broader restriction on asylum ahead of the election in November,” CBS News reported.

The strategy includes proposing a new asylum rule that claims to bar asylum seekers within days of illegal entry. It only applies to those who appear to be a “national security or public safety threat,” which is already federal law, according to reports.

U.S. Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., who chairs the House Committee on Homeland Security, blasted the proposed asylum rule saying it “appears to be an unserious, politically motivated attempt to address a significant problem the Biden administration itself created. The proposed rule will only apply to illegal aliens who are believed to be either a national security or public safety threat. The rule will not impact or reduce the millions of illegitimate asylum claims being filed by economic migrants. The department currently cannot properly vet the vast majority of illegal aliens crossing the border, as numerous tragic reports from our communities make clear. The Biden administration, however, would have us believe that vetting under this rule will somehow be effective.”

The House committee noted that under the Biden administration, the asylum claim backlog exploded. Through the second quarter of fiscal 2021, pending asylum claims and those in the category of “withholding of removal” totaled 398,928, according to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services data. By the first quarter of fiscal 2024, the backlog rose to 1.11 million, according to the most recent data. The new proposed rule, if implemented, would not have any impact on the existing backlog.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security does not have the resources or staff to adequately vet the unprecedented number of illegal border crossers continuing to enter the U.S, Green argues. Likewise, other governments do not share information about citizens coming from their countries with DHS, making it difficult to determine if someone is a national security threat or not, officials tell to The Center Square.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott also criticized the proposal, saying, “President Biden inherited the most secure border with the lowest illegal immigration since last century. With the stroke of a pen, he proudly ended those secure border policies and opened the border to more than 11 million illegal immigrants from more than 150 different countries – including known terrorists, murderers, and rapists. Now, desperately grasping to salvage his failed presidency, President Biden attempts the most minimal action possible, hoping to mask the crisis he created.”

Abbott said Biden could have implemented border security measures years ago or not halted existing policies in place under former President Donald Trump. He said whatever the proposal is will “do nothing to slow the record-breaking” illegal entries but instead “sidesteps actually enforcing the laws already enacted by Congress.”

Abbott also said the president and his administration at every turn have fought Texas’ border security measures, known as Operation Lone Star.

“President Biden attacks Texas for simply doing what Congress compelled him to do,” he said. “Texas is building a border wall, installing hundreds of miles of razor wire and buoy barriers, and deploying thousands of Texas National Guard soldiers and Department of Public Safety troopers [to the border]. Our efforts have led to a substantial decline in illegal immigration into Texas while it remains on the rise in other border states. Operation Lone Star is working, and President Biden would do well to follow our lead, or get out of the way.”

Since Abbott launched OLS, Texas law enforcement officers have apprehended more than 509,000 illegal border crossers and made more than 42,300 criminal arrests, with more than 37,500 felony charges.

Under the Biden administration, record number of apprehensions of illegal border crossers were broken every year. In fiscal 2021, a record 1.9 million were apprehended, the highest number in U.S. history at the time. The number excluded those who evaded capture known as gotaways.

That record was broken in fiscal 2022, creating a new record of more than 2.7 million. This was again broken in fiscal 2023, surpassing 3.2 million, excluding gotaways.

In the first six months of fiscal 2024, a new record was broken of more than 1.7 million illegal border crossers, the greatest number for this time period in U.S. history, The Center Square reported.

Since fiscal 2021, a record 11 million foreign nationals reportedly illegally entered the U.S., including at least two million gotaways, The Center Square has reported. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA., said on Wednesday the total number was likely closer to 16 million.

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