By Stewart Muir

Canada has a rare window to join the big leagues of LNG exporters—Qatar, Australia, and the United States are not waiting around, and neither should we.

I sometimes catch myself staring out over the waters of British Columbia’s coastline — so calm, so vast, so brimming with unspoken opportunity — and I can’t help but wonder how anyone could fail to notice the promise that Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) represents for our nation’s future. This country sits atop some of the largest gas reserves on Earth, and we have two coasts eager to connect our product to global markets.

I’m a quietly enthusiastic type by nature, and I don’t often indulge in the “I-told-you-so” routine, but whenever I encounter someone who just hasn’t cottoned on to the excitement around LNG, I feel compelled to stage a gentle intervention.

In my day-to-day role as CEO of Resource Works, I work with communities from Fort St. John to Kitimat, and beyond. Let me assure you, if you want to see Canadians at work, proud of their craft, and eyeing a brighter future, you’ll find them along the pipeline routes and port terminals that are part of our budding LNG industry. And they’re just as commonly found in Vancouver, Victoria and the other cities, just harder to spot with no blue coveralls.

I’ve been following the natural gas story in British Columbia for more than a quarter of a century, going back to my days in the media field. As an editor at The Vancouver Sun, I created the paper’s first-ever energy beat after we noticed something big was stirring in the North East gas fields. It turned out to be an industry animated by regulatory innovation, rich geology, ambitious investors, and some of the most capable people you’ll ever meet.

When talk of LNG exports began to stir in 2011, I dove in with both feet. Over the past 15 years, I’ve followed the LNG file across Canada, around the world, and deep into the heart of British Columbia.

Along the way, I’ve met First Nations chiefs who proudly showed me the schools and businesses they built through new partnerships. I’ve also sat down with those who remain skeptical and had honest, sometimes searching conversations. I’ve learned something from all of them. This is an industry that, at its best, brings people together to solve problems, create opportunity, and build a future worth caring about.

Why am I still so enthused after all these years? LNG is not a flash in the pan, for starters. Through cyclical ups and downs—natural phenomena in any commodity game—international forecasts consistently show that LNG demand won’t be evaporating tomorrow or, quite likely, for several tomorrows yet. The International Energy Agency, the Canada Energy Regulator, and even the U.S. Energy Information Administration all point to steady growth in global LNG trade.

On top of that, if you follow the money, you’ll see billions of dollars flowing into new regasification terminals and record orders for LNG carriers. I may be old-fashioned, but I’ve always found that when so many investors plunk down their capital in one place, it’s seldom a fluke. The world has more than 700 LNG ships plying the seas these days, and hundreds more under construction. That’s not a small bit of confidence.

And let’s talk local: from where I sit, Canada’s jobs outlook tied to LNG looks like a real tonic for communities seeking new opportunities. Construction alone can employ entire regions. Then come the careers that last decades—plant operators, engineers, port and shipping managers, the works. It’s the sort of diversified prosperity that a resource economy yearns for.

We’ve even seen First Nations communities take equity stakes in major LNG projects, forging new partnerships that benefit everyone involved. That’s the model of inclusive economic development that Canadians like to talk about. It’s called walking the walk.

Those voices of skepticism — bless their hearts — sometimes say, “But what about price volatility? The commodity cycles? Are we sure this is sustainable?” Truthfully, no commodity is immune to upswings and downswings. But open a newspaper — digitally or in paper form, your choice— and you’ll find that countries all over the world are expanding their LNG-import infrastructure. Many of them, especially in Asia and Europe, see Canada as a steady, well-regulated, and (importantly) speedy supplier.

Yes, “speedy” might be an odd descriptor for us easygoing Canadians, but let’s not overlook that a West Coast port is only about eight or nine sailing days from major Asian markets, versus more than 20 from the U.S. Gulf Coast. You’d think we’d have lines of ships lined up right now, just for that advantage.

There’s another subtlety that some folks overlook. Right now, much of our gas still flows to the United States, often at discounted prices, only to be converted into LNG down there and sold globally at a premium. If that doesn’t make you shake your head in wonder, I’m not sure what will. Canadians have every reason to want to keep some of that up-chain value right here at home, funneling more of that revenue into local jobs and public coffers. That’s exactly the sort of well-to-customer supply chain we’re poised to build.

And if you’re still not impressed, consider the big jolt to GDP whenever a massive energy project crosses the finish line. Look no further than the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion: once it was substantially complete last year, the national GDP got a measurable jolt. It’s extremely rare that a single anything shows up that way. Now, with the first shipment of Canadian LNG preparing to leave Kitimat in the coming weeks, we can expect a repeat performance. It’s the real economic equivalent of an encore, if you will. And who doesn’t love an encore that boosts paycheques and government revenues?

Canadians may be known worldwide for politeness and hockey, but let’s not forget that boldness is also in our national DNA. Building a robust LNG sector that ties Western and Eastern Canada to major global markets is about as bold an economic strategy as we could pursue right now. Some might call it visionary, others might say it’s just common sense in a world that still demands substantial amounts of energy. Either way, Canada has a rare window to join the big leagues of LNG exporters—Qatar, Australia, and the United States are not waiting around, and neither should we.

At the end of the day, seeing Canadians capture more of the value from our natural resources rather than shipping it across the border at a discount is, for me, both pragmatic and patriotic. It’s the kind of deal that makes you wonder why anyone would hesitate. Perhaps that hesitation is just a bump in the road of public discourse—something we can gently, politely, and persistently overcome.

I, for one, am excited for the first shipment of LNG out of Canada’s West Coast, due any week now. A top executive with the project once whispered to me that the maiden cargo would be worth $100 million, but lately I’m hearing a single shipload is now probably worth double that.

So yes, I’m looking forward to the day when it’s not just a handful of tankers leaving our ports, but a regular fleet serving global customers. It will lift up the whole country, just as it has contributed to America’s tearaway economy in recent years and elevated Qatar from desert outpost to World Cup host nation.

Soon, maybe all the doubters will have recognized the obvious — and joined the rest of us on the bandwagon with front-row seats to Canada’s LNG future. Sure, I’m biased, but only because the facts keep reinforcing that this sector is poised to do a world of good for Canadians from coast to coast.

This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Rashid Husain Syed

Riyadh is walking away from its role as oil market stabilizer, signalling a return to market-share battles that threaten prices and Canadian revenues

After boosting crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May—triple the originally planned volume—OPEC+ shocked observers by intending to repeat the increase in June, despite slowing global demand and the dampening effects of U.S. trade tariffs.

The decision has ripple effects far beyond the Middle East. OPEC+—the alliance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia—collectively controls about 40 per cent of the world’s oil production. Its actions directly influence global oil prices, which in turn affect everything from gasoline prices across Canada to government revenues in resource-dependent provinces like Alberta.

Is OPEC+ sabotaging itself?

The move contradicts the group’s modus operandi of the past several years. Since 2016, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, has tried to balance global oil markets by curbing output. At its peak, the group cut production by more than five million barrels per day—about five per cent of global supply—with Saudi Arabia alone contributing two-fifths of that total.

This strategy was meant to stabilize prices and ensure petrostates such as Saudi Arabia could meet ballooning budget demands. Many OPEC members remain heavily reliant on oil revenues to fund government spending, with few alternative income streams.

But after years of shouldering the burden, Riyadh appears to have had enough. Reuters recently reported that Saudi officials have been quietly telling allies and industry experts the kingdom is no longer willing to continue absorbing the cost of propping up global prices through deeper cuts.

There is logic behind this frustration. Despite OPEC+ efforts, markets remain volatile. Crude has dropped about 19 per cent this year, briefly touching a four-year low, mainly due to fears that U.S. tariffs will reduce global energy demand.

Some of this instability can be traced to cheating within OPEC+. Several members, including Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia, have regularly exceeded their quotas, often at Saudi Arabia’s expense.

Riyadh’s patience appears to have run out. “OPEC’s decision framework appears to be fueled by persistent cheating,” noted TD Cowen strategists Dan Ghali and Bart Melek. The group warned in a note to clients that inventories could rise by 200 million barrels in the next three quarters, potentially pushing crude prices into the low US$50 range.

Saudi Arabia has no intention of sacrificing more market share to cover for others. This echoes an earlier episode when former Saudi oil minister Ali AlNaimi, frustrated by similar quota violations and the rise of U.S. shale producers, chose to flood the market to protect Saudi interests. In 2016, he famously told American drillers they could “lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate” as prices sank below US$50 per barrel.

The result was carnage in the oil patch—and a temporary ceasefire among producers.

History may be repeating itself. With other OPEC+ members again failing to meet targets, sources told Reuters that Riyadh is now shifting strategy. Rather than continuing to play the role of swing producer, Saudi Arabia may focus on regaining market share by boosting production, effectively stepping back from the group’s five-year effort to balance prices.

Despite its dependency on oil revenues, the kingdom appears ready to endure lower prices. Media reports quoting government sources suggest Saudi Arabia may increase borrowing and scale back spending to compensate. “The Saudis are ready for lower prices and may need to pull back on some major projects,” one insider told Reuters.

Saudi Arabia needs prices above US$90 per barrel to balance its budget—a higher threshold than other major producers such as the United Arab Emirates, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Theories abound about the motivations behind the kingdom’s apparent policy shift: retaliation against quota-busting allies, competition with emerging producers like the United States and Guyana, or even an attempt to please U.S. President Donald Trump, who has publicly called for higher OPEC output to ease gasoline prices.

Whatever the motivation, the consequences are real. The IMF has lowered its economic growth forecast for oil-exporting Middle East countries to 2.3 per cent from four per cent projected in October, citing lower prices and rising geopolitical uncertainty. It also revised Saudi Arabia’s growth outlook to three per cent from 3.3 per cent after oil prices fell 13 per cent in the past month alone. This has implications far beyond the Middle East, including for Canada. For Alberta, where oil sales remain a pillar of the economy, weakening global prices mean reduced royalties, tighter fiscal planning and less room for public investment.

As global oil markets enter another uncertain chapter, the aftershocks will be felt from Riyadh to Edmonton.

Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.

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